Please wait a minute...
干旱区科学  2013, Vol. 5 Issue (1): 1-14    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-013-0136-4
  学术论文 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
Drought changes and the mechanism analysis for the North American Prairie
Ge YU1, Dave SAUCHYN2, YongFei LI1
1 State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China;
2 Prairie Adaptation and Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Regina S4S 7J7, Canada
Drought changes and the mechanism analysis for the North American Prairie
Ge YU1, Dave SAUCHYN2, YongFei LI1
1 State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China;
2 Prairie Adaptation and Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Regina S4S 7J7, Canada
下载:  PDF (597KB) 
输出:  BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
摘要 The worst droughts in the central part of the North American Prairie in the past several hundred years have been reconstructed from tree-ring chronologies, suggesting that some drought years have exceeded the se-verity shown by the gauge record. A general circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has simulated climate changes for the area during the past 250 years driven by climatic forces, providing scenarios of extreme climate that can further diagnose the mechanisms. This study refined the drought signals from the tree ring data and GFDL modeling at inter-annual and decadal time scales and analyzed the potential mecha-nisms driving the droughts. Results showed that drought years with summer precipitation lower than the 10th per-centiles occurred during 1777–1789, 1847–1861 and 1886–1879 AD in the area. Both tree rings and model re-vealed that the frequency of droughts has been relatively consistent in a similar timing and frequency with climate change. Monte Carlo analysis have detected that the tree ring chronologies have recorded drought years with probabilities of 9.3%–12.8%, and the model has simulated the droughts with probabilities 5.7%–17.8%. Under CO2 and aerosol forcing, the GFDL modeled the drought recurrences of 13 years and 25 years, which are very syn-chronous changes with tree rings and consistent with gauge records. The 20-a and 10-a time scale reoccurrences of droughts are very consistent with solar radiation cycles, and similar to the length of cycles in oceanic records, suggesting that terrestrial precipitation modeling is properly driven from sun-land-sea dynamics. Detected severity, variability and return periods of droughts from the present study make potential improvements in drought predictions and constructing scenarios for climate impacts and adaptation strategies.
服务
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章
Ge YU
Dave SAUCHYN
YongFei LI
关键词:  snow leopard  Panthera uncia  sign survey  habitat preferences  Tomur National Nature Reserve    
Abstract: The worst droughts in the central part of the North American Prairie in the past several hundred years have been reconstructed from tree-ring chronologies, suggesting that some drought years have exceeded the se-verity shown by the gauge record. A general circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has simulated climate changes for the area during the past 250 years driven by climatic forces, providing scenarios of extreme climate that can further diagnose the mechanisms. This study refined the drought signals from the tree ring data and GFDL modeling at inter-annual and decadal time scales and analyzed the potential mecha-nisms driving the droughts. Results showed that drought years with summer precipitation lower than the 10th per-centiles occurred during 1777–1789, 1847–1861 and 1886–1879 AD in the area. Both tree rings and model re-vealed that the frequency of droughts has been relatively consistent in a similar timing and frequency with climate change. Monte Carlo analysis have detected that the tree ring chronologies have recorded drought years with probabilities of 9.3%–12.8%, and the model has simulated the droughts with probabilities 5.7%–17.8%. Under CO2 and aerosol forcing, the GFDL modeled the drought recurrences of 13 years and 25 years, which are very syn-chronous changes with tree rings and consistent with gauge records. The 20-a and 10-a time scale reoccurrences of droughts are very consistent with solar radiation cycles, and similar to the length of cycles in oceanic records, suggesting that terrestrial precipitation modeling is properly driven from sun-land-sea dynamics. Detected severity, variability and return periods of droughts from the present study make potential improvements in drought predictions and constructing scenarios for climate impacts and adaptation strategies.
Key words:   snow leopard    Panthera uncia    sign survey    habitat preferences    Tomur National Nature Reserve
收稿日期:  2012-04-05                出版日期:  2013-03-06      发布日期:  2013-03-06      期的出版日期:  2013-03-06
基金资助: 

Global Change Research Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2012CB956103), International Partnership Program and External Cooperation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZZD-EW-TZ-08, GJHZ1214) and Key Directional Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW- 338-2).

通讯作者:  Ge YU    E-mail:  geyu@niglas.ac.cn
引用本文:    
Ge YU, Dave SAUCHYN, YongFei LI. Drought changes and the mechanism analysis for the North American Prairie[J]. 干旱区科学, 2013, 5(1): 1-14.
Ge YU, Dave SAUCHYN, YongFei LI. Drought changes and the mechanism analysis for the North American Prairie. Journal of Arid Land, 2013, 5(1): 1-14.
链接本文:  
http://jal.xjegi.com/CN/10.1007/s40333-013-0136-4  或          http://jal.xjegi.com/CN/Y2013/V5/I1/1
Binnema T. 2001. Common and Contested Ground: A Human and Environmental History of the Northwestern Plains. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.

Bloomfield P. 2000. Fourier Analysis of Time Series (2nd ed.). London: John Wiley & Sons.

Boer G J, Flato G, Ramsden D. 2000. A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected climate for the 21st century. Climate Dynamics: 16: 427–450.

Bond N A, Harrison D E. 2000. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, air-sea interaction and central north Pacific winter atmospheric regimes. Geophysical Research Letter, 27: 731–734.

Braconnot P, Harrison S P, Kageyama M, et al. 2012. Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data. Nature Climate Change, 2: 417–424.

Case R A, MacDonald G M. 1995. Dendroclimatic reconstruction of annual precipitation on the western Canada Prairies since A.D. 1505 from Pinus flexilis James. Quaternary Research, 44: 267–275.

Chatfield C. 1975. The Analysis of Time Series: Theory and Practice. London: Chapman and Hall.

Collins M, Osborn T J, Tett S F B, et al. 2002. A comparison of variability of a climate model with paleotemperature estimates from a network of tree ring density. Journal of Climate, 15: 1497–1515.

Cook E R, Kairiukstis L A. 1990. Methods of Dendrochronology—Applications in the Environmental Sciences. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Cook E R, Meko D M, Stockton C W. 1997. A new assessment of possible solar and lunar forcing of the bidecadal drought rhythm in the western United States. Journal of Climate, 10: 1343–1356.

Critchfield W B. 1980. Genetics of Lodgepole Pine. In: USDA Forest Service Research Paper WO-37. Washington, DC: United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service.

Crowley T J. 2000. Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science, 289: 270–277.

Delworth T L, Knutson T R. 2000. Simulation of early 20th century global warming. Science, 287: 2246–2250.

Delworth T L, Rsati A, Anderson W, et al. 2012. Simulated climate and climate change in the GFDL CM2.5 high-resolution coupled climate model. Journal of Climate, 25: 2755–2781.

Dixon K W, Lanzante J R. 1999. Global mean surface air temperature and North Atlantic overturning in a suite of coupled GCM climate change experiments. Geophysical Research Letters, 26: 1885–1888.

Dixon K W, Delworth T L, Knutson T R, et al. 2003. A comparison of climate change simulations produced by two GFDL coupled climate models. Global and Planetary Change, 37: 81–102.

Findell K L, Delworth T L. 2010. Impact of common sea surface temperature anomalies on global drought and pluvial frequency. Journal of Climate, 23: 485–503.

Frankignoul C. 1999. Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Techniques. New York: Springer Publishers.

Fritt H C, Guiot J. 1990. Methods of calibration, verification and reconstruction. In: Cook E R, Kairiulstis L A. Methods of Dendro-chronology. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

George S S, Nielsen E. 2002. Hydroclimatic change in southern Manitoba since A.D. 1409 inferred from tree rings. Quaternary Research, 58: 103–111.

Grissino-Mayer H, Holmes R, Fritts H C. 1996. International Tree Rings Data Bank Program Library User’s Manual. Tucson: Labora-tory of Tree-ring Research University of Arizona.

Hammersley J M. 1960. Monte Carlo methods for solving multivari-able problems. Annual of the New York Academy of Sciences, 86: 844–874.

Haywood J M, Stouffer R J, Wetherald R T, et al. 1997. Transient response of a coupled model to estimated changes in greenhouse gas and sulfate concentrations. Geophysical Research Letters, 24: 1335–1338.

Hoffman P. 1998. The Man Who Loved Only Numbers: the Story of Paul Erdos and the Search for Mathematical Truth. New York: Hy-perion Press.

Hoyt D V, Schatten K H. 1997. The role of the sun in climate change. Radiocarbon, 35: 215–230.

Hurrell J W. 1995. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science, 269: 676–679.

Hurrell J W. 2003. Climate Variability: North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation. In: Holton J, Pyle J, Curry J. Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences. New York: Academic Press.

IPCC. 2007. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Koster R D, Mahanama S P P, Yamada T J, et al. 2010. Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L02402, doi: 10.1029/2009GL041677.

Kutzbach J E, Bartlein P J, Foley J A, et al. 1996. Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions: a case study at 6000 years BP. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10: 727–736.

Laird K R, Fritz S C, Maasch K A, et al. 1996. Greater drought intensity and frequency before A.D. 1200 in the northern Great Plains, USA. Nature, 384: 552–554.

Liu J L, Stewart R E, Szeto K K. 2004. Moisture transport and other hydrometeorological features associated with the severe 2000/01 drought over the western and central Canadian Prairies. Journal of Climate, 17: 305–319.

Lotan J E, Perry A D. 1977. Fifth-year Seed: Seedling Ratios of Lodgepole Pine by Habitat Type and Seedbed Preparation Technique. In: USDA Forest Service Research Note INT-239. Ogden, Utah: United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station.

Luo L, Wood E F. 2007. Monitoring and predicting the 2007 U.S. drought. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L22702, doi: 10.1029/2007GL031673.

Manabe S, Stouffer R J. 1993. Century-scale effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on the ocean-atmosphere system. Nature, 364: 215–218.

Mann M E, Bradley R S, Hughes M K. 1999. Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties and limitations. Geophysical Research Letters, 26: 759–762.

Mantua N J, Hare S R, Zhang Y, et al. 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 78: 1069–1079.

Meko D M, Therrell M D, Baisan C H, et al. 2001. Sacramento River flow reconstructed to A.D. 869 from tree rings. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 37: 1029–1039.

Minobe S. 1997. A 50–70 year climatic oscillation over the North Pacific and North America. Geophysical Research Letters, 24: 683–686.

Minobe S. 1999. Resonance in bidecadal and pentadecadal climate oscillations over the North Pacific: role in climatic regime shifts. Geophysical Research Letters, 26: 855–858.

New M, Hulme M. 2000. Representing uncertainty in climate change scenarios: a Monte-Carlo approach. Integrated Assessment, 1: 203–213.

Nigam S, Barlow M, Berbery E H. 1999. Analysis links Pacific decadal variability to drought and stream flow in United States. EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 80: 621–625.

Sauchyn D J, Beaudoin A B. 1998. Recent environmental change in the southwestern Canadian Plains. The Canadian Geographer, 42: 337–353.

Sauchyn D J, Barrow E M, Hopkinson R F, et al. 2002. Aridity on the Canadian Plains. Géographie Physique et Quaternaire, 56: 247–259.

Sauchyn D J, Stroich J, Beriault A. 2003. A paleoclimatic context for the drought of 1999–2001 in the northern Great Plains of North America. The Geographical Journal, 169: 158–167.

Schubert S, Gutzler D, Wang H L, et al. 2009. A U.S. CLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to drought-related SST forcing patterns: overview and results. Journal of Climate, 22: 5251–5272.

Sheppard W D, Noble D L. 1976. Germination, Survival, and Growth of Lodgepole Pine under Simulated Precipitation Regimes: a Greenhouse Study. In: USDA Forest Service Research Note RM-328. Fort Collins: United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station.

Stuiver M, Reimer P J, Bard E, et al. 1998. INTCAL 98 radiocarbon age calibration, 24,000–0 cal BP., 40: 1041–1083.

Touchan R, Meko D M, Hughes M. 1999. A 396-year reconstruction of precipitation in southern Jordan. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 35: 49–59.

Vincent L A, Gullett D W. 1999. Canadian historical and homogenous temperature datasets for climate change analysis. Journal of Clima-tology, 19: 1375–1388.

Wiken E B. 1986. Terrestrial Ecozones of Canada. In: Ecological Land Classification Series No. 19. Ottawa: Environment Canada, Lands Directorate.

Wolfe S A, Huntley D J, David P P, et al. 2001. Late 18th century drought-induced sand dune activity, Great Sand Hills, Saskatchewan. Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences, 38: 105–117.

Yu G, Shen H D. 2010. Lake water changes in response to climate change in northern China: simulations and uncertainty analysis. Quaternary International, 212: 44–56.

Zhang X, Vincent L A, Hogg W D, et al. 2000. Temperature and pre-cipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century. Atmosphere -Ocean, 38: 395–429.

 
[1] Feng XU, Ming MA, WeiKang YANG, David BLANK, YiQun WU, Thomas MCCARTHY, Bariusha. Winter habitat use of snow leopards in Tomur National Nature Reserve of Xinjiang, Northwest China[J]. 干旱区科学, 2012, 4(2): 191-195.
No Suggested Reading articles found!
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed