A simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming model for water resources management in Kaidu-Konqi watershed, China
Yue HUANG1,2, Xi CHEN2, YongPing LI3, AnMing BAO2, YongGang MA2,4
1 College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; 2 State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; 3 MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Sino-Canada Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; 4 Xinjiang Remote Sensing Center, Urumqi 830011, China
A simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming model for water resources management in Kaidu-Konqi watershed, China
Yue HUANG1,2, Xi CHEN2, YongPing LI3, AnMing BAO2, YongGang MA2,4
1 College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; 2 State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; 3 MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Sino-Canada Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; 4 Xinjiang Remote Sensing Center, Urumqi 830011, China
摘要 This study presented a simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming (STIP) model to support water resources management in the Kaidu-Konqi watershed in Northwest China. The modeling system coupled a distributed hydrological model with an interval two-stage stochastic programing (ITSP). The distributed hydrological model was used for establishing a rainfall-runoff forecast system, while random parameters were pro-vided by the statistical analysis of simulation outcomes. The developed STIP model was applied to a real case of water resources management planning in Kaidu-Konqi watershed, where three scenarios with different water re-sources management policies were analyzed. The results indicated that water shortage mainly occurred in agri-culture, ecology and forestry sectors. In comparison, the water demand from municipality, industry and stock-breeding sectors can be satisfied due to their lower consumptions and higher economic values. Different policies for ecological water allocation can result in varied system benefits, and can help to identify desired water allocation plans with a maximum economic benefit and a minimum risk of system disruption under uncertainty.
Abstract: This study presented a simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming (STIP) model to support water resources management in the Kaidu-Konqi watershed in Northwest China. The modeling system coupled a distributed hydrological model with an interval two-stage stochastic programing (ITSP). The distributed hydrological model was used for establishing a rainfall-runoff forecast system, while random parameters were pro-vided by the statistical analysis of simulation outcomes. The developed STIP model was applied to a real case of water resources management planning in Kaidu-Konqi watershed, where three scenarios with different water re-sources management policies were analyzed. The results indicated that water shortage mainly occurred in agri-culture, ecology and forestry sectors. In comparison, the water demand from municipality, industry and stock-breeding sectors can be satisfied due to their lower consumptions and higher economic values. Different policies for ecological water allocation can result in varied system benefits, and can help to identify desired water allocation plans with a maximum economic benefit and a minimum risk of system disruption under uncertainty.
The National Basic Research Pro-gram of China (2010CB951002), the Dr. Western-funded Project of Chinese Academy of Science (XBBS201010 and XBBS¬201005), the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (51190095), and the Open Research Fund Program of State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering (sklhse-2012-A- 03).
通讯作者:
Xi CHEN
E-mail: chenxi@ms.xjb.ac.cn
引用本文:
Yue HUANG, Xi CHEN, YongPing LI, AnMing BAO, YongGang MA. A simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming model for water resources management in Kaidu-Konqi watershed, China[J]. 干旱区科学, 2012, 4(4): 390-398.
Yue HUANG, Xi CHEN, YongPing LI, AnMing BAO, YongGang MA. A simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming model for water resources management in Kaidu-Konqi watershed, China. Journal of Arid Land, 2012, 4(4): 390-398.
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