Research Articles |
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity of runoff to climatic variability in the northern and southern slopes of the Middle Tianshan Mountains, China |
ZHANG Feiyun1,2, BAI Lei1,2, LI Lanhai1*, WANG Quan3 |
1 State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
3 Faculty of Agriculture, Shizuoka University, Shizuoka 422-8529, Japan |
|
|
Abstract emperature and precipitation play an important role in the distribution of intra-annual runoff by influencing the timing and contribution of different water sources. In the northern and southern slopes of the Middle Tianshan Mountains in China, the water sources of rivers are similar; however, the proportion and dominance of water sources contributing to runoff are different. Using the Manas River watershed in the northern slope and the Kaidu River watershed in the southern slope of the Middle Tianshan Mountains as case studies, we investigated the changes in annual runoff under climate change. A modified hydrological model was used to simulate runoff in the Kaidu River and Manas River watersheds. The results indicated that runoff was sensitive to precipitation variation in the southern slope and to temperature variation in the northern slope of the Middle Tianshan Mountains. Variations in temperature and precipitation substantially influence annual and seasonal runoff. An increase in temperature did not influence the volume of spring runoff; but it resulted in earlier spring peaks with higher levels of peak flow. Damages caused by spring peak flow from both slopes of the Middle Tianshan Mountains should be given more attention in future studies.
|
Received: 27 December 2015
Published: 15 June 2016
|
Fund: This work was funded by the National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB956204), the Special Funds for the Key Laboratory of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (2014KL015) and the Key Deployment Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZZD-EW-12-2). |
Corresponding Authors:
|
|
|
Aizen V B, Aizen E M, Melack J M. 1995. Climate, snow cover, glaciers, and runoff in the Tien Shan, central Asia. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 31(6): 1113–1129. Armesto J J, Mart?nez J A. 1978. Relations between vegetation structure and slope aspect in the Mediterranean region of Chile. Journal of Ecology, 66(3): 881–889. Badano E I, Cavieres L A, Molina-Montenegro M A, et al. 2005. Slope aspect influences plant association patterns in the Mediterranean matorral of central Chile. Journal of Arid Environments, 62(1): 93–108. Chen G W M, Zhou C H, Liu H J, et al. 2006. The oasis expansion and eco-environment change over the last 50 years in Manas River Valley, Xinjiang. Science in China: Series D, 49(2): 163–175. Chen X, Liang S, Bao A. 2014. Application of Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) in ungagged Manasi River Basin, Northwest China. In: AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts. Washington, DC: American Geophysical Union. Dodds W K. 1997. Distribution of runoff and rivers related to vegetative characteristics, latitude, and slope: A global perspective. Journal of the North American Benthological Society, 16(1): 162–168. Dou Y. 2010. Climate change impact on snowcover and runoff in the Tianshan Mountains. PhD Dissertation. Beijing: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences. (in Chinese)Dou Y, Chen X, Bao A M, et al. 2011. The simulation of snowmelt runoff in the ungauged Kaidu River Basin of Tianshan Mountains, China. Environmental Earth Sciences, 62(5): 1039–1045. Fan Y T, Chen Y N, Liu Y B, et al. 2013. Variation of baseflows in the headstreams of the Tarim River Basin during 1960–2007. Journal of Hydrology, 487: 98–108. Han T D, Ding Y J, Ye B S, et al. 2004. Precipitation variations on the southern and northern slopes of the Tianger range in Tianshan Mountains. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 26(6): 761–766. (in Chinese)Hu R J. 2004. Physical Geography of the Tianshan Mountains in China. Beijing: China Environmental Science Press. (in Chinese)Huang Y. 2009. Distributed hydraulic modeling in arid ungauged basin. PhD Dissertation. Urumqi: Xinjiang Institue of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences. (in Chinese)Ji X, Luo Y. 2013. The influence of precipitation and temperature input schemes on hydrological simulations of a snow and glacier melt dominated basin in Northwest China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10(1): 807–853. Kalra A, Ahmad S, Nayak A, et al. 2013. Increasing streamflow forecast lead time for snowmelt driven catchment based on large-scale climate patterns. Advances in Water Resources, 53: 150–162. Kutiel P. 1992. Slope aspect effect on soil and vegetation in a Mediterranean ecosystem. Israel Journal of Botany, 41(4–6): 243–250. Kuusisto E. 1984. Snow accumulation and snowmelt in Finland. Finland: Publications of the Water Research Institute, National Board of Waters. Lan Y C, Zhong Y J, Wu S F, et al. 2011. Response of mountain runoff to climate change in representative rivers originated from the Tianshan Mountain. Journal of Desert Research, 31(1): 254–260. (in Chinese)Li L, Simonovic S P. 2002. System dynamics model for predicting floods from snowmelt in North American prairie watersheds. Hydrological Processes, 16(13): 2645–2666. Li L H, Shang M, Zhang M S, et al. 2014. Snowmelt runoff simulation driven by APHRODITE precipitation dataset. Advances in Water Science, 25(1): 53–59. (in Chinese)Li Q, Li L H, Bao A M. 2012a. Snow cover change and impact on streamflow in the Kaidu river basin. Resources Science, 34(1): 91–97. (in Chinese)Li S S, Zhang F Y, Bai L, et al. 2015. Spatiotemporal variation and sensitivity of reference crop evapotranspiration during growth season in northern Xinjiang. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 36(6): 683–691. (in Chinese)Li X M, Zhang F Y, Shang M, et al. 2012b. Path analysis on impacts of meteorological factors on runoff from Tianshan Mountains: a case study on Manas River and Kaidu River watersheds. Resources Science, 34(4): 652–659. (in Chinese). Li Y A, Tan Y, Jiang F Q, et al. 2003. Study on Hydrological features of the Kaidu River and the Bosten Lake in the second half of 20th century. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 25(2): 215–218. (in Chinese)Li Z, Liu W Z, Zhang X C, et al. 2009. Impacts of land use change and climate variability on hydrology in an agricultural catchment on the Loess Plateau of China. Journal of Hydrology, 377(1–2): 35–42. Liu C H. 1995. Glacier resources and distributive characteristics in the Central Asia Tianshan Mountains. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 17(3): 193–203. (in Chinese)Liu H L, Wang L, Bao A M, et al. 2009. Analysis on snow and ice cover area in Manasi River basin based on Modis data. Journal of Shihezi University: Natural Science, 27(6): 770–773. (in Chinese)Liu X K, Rao Z G, Zhang X J, et al. 2015. Variations in the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains region and their significance for the Westerly circulation. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 25(7): 801–816.Ma H, Cheng G D. 2003. A test of Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) for the Gongnaisi River basin in the western Tianshan Mountains, China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 48(20): 2253–2259.Martinec J. 1975. Snowmelt-runoff model for stream flow forecasts. Hydrology Research, 6(3): 145–154. Moriasi D N, Arnold J G, Van Liew M W, et al. 2007. Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Transactions of the ASABE, 50(3): 885–900. Mu W F. 1991. A review on the supply of water vapour to heavy rain process in arid regions of China. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 2(3): 308–314. National Research Council. 2007. Colorado River Basin Water Management: Evaluating and Adjusting to Hydroclimatic Variability. Washington, DC: National Academics Press. Ran S H, Li X B, Lv C H. 2006. Multi-scale modeling of land-cover change and ecosystem service values: a case of the Yuzixi catchment in Sichuan. Acta Geographica Sinica, 61(10): 1113–1120. (in Chinese)Regonda S K, Rajagopalan B, Clark M, et al. 2005. Seasonal cycle shifts in hydroclimatology over the western United States. Journal of Climate, 18(2): 372–384. Shang M, Li L H, Yao Y N, et al. 2013. Analysis of factors affecting peak flow of the Kaidu River on the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 27(9): 85–91. (in Chinese)Shi Y F, Shen Y P, Kang E S, et al. 2007. Recent and future climate change in northwest China. Climatic Change, 80(3–4): 379–393. Shi Y G. 2014. Spatial-temporal Distribtion and Change of Precipitation and Vapor in Xinjiang. Beijing: China Meteorological Press. (in Chinese)Stewart I T, Cayan D R, Dettinger M D. 2005. Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America. Journal of Climate, 18(8): 1136–1155. Su H C, Shen Y P, Han P, et al. 2007. Precipitation and its impact on water resources and ecological environment in Xinjiang region. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 29(3): 343–350. (in Chinese)Sun M P, Yao X J, Li Z Q, et al. 2015. Hydrological processes of glacier and snow melting and runoff in the Urumqi River source region, eastern Tianshan Mountains, China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 25(2): 149–164.Vincent L A, Gullett D W. 1999. Canadian historical and homogeneous temperature datasets for climate change analyses. International Journal of Climatology, 19(12): 1375–1388. Wang G Q, Zhang J Y, Liu J F, et al. 2011. The sensitivity of runoff to climate change in different climatic regions in China. Advances in Water Science, 22(3): 307–314. (in Chinese)Wang G Y, Shen Y P, Mao W Y. 2005. Climate warming at headwater of Ürümqi River, Xinjiang in past 44 years and its impact on glacier shrinking. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 27(6): 813–819. (in Chinese)Wu S F, Liu Z H, Han P, et al. 2006. Impact of climate change on water resources of the Urumqi River Basin. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 28(5): 703–706. (in Chinese)Xu J H, Chen Y N, Ji M H, et al. 2008. Climate change and its effects on runoff of Kaidu River, Xinjiang, China: A multiple time-scale analysis. Chinese Geographical Science, 18(4): 331–339. Yang M, Ye B S, Peng P H, et al. 2012. A simulation of glacial runoff at headwaters of the Urumqi River. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 34(1): 130–138. (in Chinese)Yang M X, Yao T D, Gou X H, et al. 2007. Comparison analysis of the summer monsoon precipitation between northern and southern slopes of Tanggula Mountains, Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau: a case study in summer 1998. Hydrological Processes, 21(14): 1841–1847. Yang Q, Cui C X. 2005. Impact of climate change on the surface water of Kaidu River Basin. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 15(1): 20–28. Yu M Y, Chen X, Li L H, et al. 2011. Streamflow simulation by SWAT using different precipitation sources in large arid basins with scarce rain gauges. Water Resources Management, 25(11): 2669–2681. Yu M Y, Chen X, Li L H, et al. 2013. Incorporating accumulated temperature and algorithm of snow cover calculation into the snowmelt runoff model. Hydrological Processes, 27(25): 3589–3595. Zhang F Y, Li L H, Ahmad S, et al. 2014. Using path analysis to identify the influence of climatic factors on spring peak flow dominated by snowmelt in an alpine watershed. Journal of Mountain Science, 11(4): 990–1000. Zhang F Y, Ahmad S, Zhang H Q, et al. 2016. Simulating low and high streamflow driven by snowmelt in an insufficiently gauged alpine basin. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 30(1): 59–75. Zhang P, Wang J, Liu Y, et al. 2009. Application of SRM to flood forecast and for warning of Manasi River Basin in Spring. Remote Sensing Technology and Application, 24(4): 456–461. (in Chinese)Zhang S Q, Pu Z C, Wang S L. 2011. Spatio-temporal change characteristics of precipitation in Urumqi River Basin. Journal of Xinjiang Agricultural University, 34(1): 66–70. (in Chinese)Zhang Y C, Li B L, Bao A M, et al. 2007. Study on snowmelt runoff simulation in the Kaidu River basin. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 50(Suppl.): 26–35. Zhao C C, Ding Y J, Ye B S, et al. 2011. Spatial distribution of precipitation in Tianshan Mountains and its estimation. Advances in Water Science, 22(3): 315–322. (in Chinese) |
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
|
Shared |
|
|
|
|
|
Discussed |
|
|
|
|