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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2023, Vol. 15 Issue (2): 145-163    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-022-0083-z
Research article     
Integrated water risk early warning framework of the semi-arid transitional zone based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC)
XIE Yuxi1, ZENG Weihua1,2,*(), QIU Jie3,*()
1School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qinghai 810008, China
3Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing 210042, China
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Abstract  

Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers. Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future overload. In addition, existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators. Given the periodicity of the socioeconomic system, however, the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical fluctuations. Thus, it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the WECC. In this study, we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning framework. We also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental system. We selected the North Canal Basin (an essential connection among the Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei region) in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018-2023. We found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC, to some extent. The result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction (root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418), and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index (CEWI) conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river basin. From 2008 to 2023, the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences: the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances, while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water volume. Finally, through a sensitivity analysis of the indicators, we proposed specific management measures for the sustainability of the water environmental system in the North Canal Basin. Overall, the integrated water risk early warning framework could provide an appropriate method for the water environmental administration department to predict the WECC of the basin in the future. This framework could also assist in implementing corresponding management measures in advance, especially for the performance evaluation and the arrangement of key short-term tasks in the River Chief System in China.

Key words： water risk      early warning system      water environmental carrying capacity      prosperity index      water management      North Canal (Beiyun River)     
Received: 25 July 2022      Published: 28 February 2023
Corresponding Authors: *ZENG Weihua (E-mail: zengwh@bnu.edu.cn);QIU Jie (E-mail: qiujie@nies.org)
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XIE Yuxi
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XIE Yuxi, ZENG Weihua, QIU Jie. Integrated water risk early warning framework of the semi-arid transitional zone based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC). Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(2): 145-163.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-022-0083-z     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2023/V15/I2/145

Fig. 1 Overview of the North Canal Basin and the location of the 25 water environmental management units in the North Canal Basin. The base map is from the Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (https://www.resdc.cn/Default.aspx). Note that water environmental management units are divided by the Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning.
Fig. 2 Integrated water risk early warning framework established in this study. CWECR, comprehensive water environmental carrying rate; DI, diffusion index; CI, composite index; CEWI, comprehensive early warning index.
System Pressure indicator Unit Support indicator Unit
Socioeconomy Total population 104 Percentage of environmental protection expenditure in fiscal expenditure %
GDP 104 CNY
Water quantity Industrial water consumption 104 t Surface water resources 104 m3
Domestic water consumption 104 t Groundwater resources 104 m3
Agricultural water consumption 104 t Water resources per capita m3
Water consumption per capita t Wastewater reuse rate %
Water consumption per ten-thousand CNY GDP t Water conservation (based on land use) mm
Forest and grass coverage (based on land use) %
Water quality Point source pollution of COD t Water environmental capacity of COD t
Point source pollution of NH4 t Water environmental capacity of NH4 t
Point source pollution of TP t Water environmental capacity of TP t
Non-point source pollution of COD t Number of sewage treatment plants
Non-point source pollution of NH4 t Sewage treatment rate %
Non-point source pollution of TP t Water purification capacity (based on land use) %
COD discharge per ten-thousand CNY GDP t
NH4 discharge per ten-thousand CNY GDP t
TP discharge per ten-thousand CNY GDP t
Industrial wastewater discharge 104 t
Benchmark indicator Unit
CWECR %
Table 1 Description of the indicator system (including the impact indicators (pressure indicators and support indicators) and the benchmark indicator)
Signal light Waring level Range of the CEWI Explanation
Red light Heavy warning >1.500 The water environmental system has been seriously overloaded, and emergency early warning measures should be taken to prevent irreversible deterioration of the water environmental system.
Yellow light Medium warning 1.000-1.500 Socioeconomic development significantly affects the water environmental system, which has exceeded the carrying capacity. It is necessary to restrict socioeconomic growth and take adequate measures to reduce pressure.
Green light Slight warning 0.500-1.000 The impact of socioeconomic development on the water environmental system is moderate.
Deep green light No warning <0.500 The socioeconomic system and the water environmental system develop in harmony.
Table 2 Classification of waring levels and the corresponding explanation
Fig. 3 Classification of the synchronous and leading indicators. # represents the correlation coefficient. COD, chemical oxygen demand; NH4, ammonia nitrogen; TP, total phosphorus.
Fig. 4 Changes of the DI (a) from 2009 to 2017 and the integrated CI and CWECR (b) from 2008 to 2017. When the value of the DI or CI exceeds the prosperous line, it indicates that the WECC becomes worsen.
Fig. 5 Temporal variation of the comprehensive early warning index (CEWI) values for the 25 water environmental management units in 2008-2017 (a1), spatial distribution of the CEWI values for the 25 water environmental management units in typical years (a2-a5), and box plots of the CEWI values for the years 2008-2017 (b) and for the 25 water environmental management units (c). The solid line in the middle of the box is the median, representing the general level of the sample data. The symbol triangle within the box is the average, which represents the average level of the sample data. The top and bottom of the box are the upper quartile and the lower quartile of the sample data, respectively. The width of the box reflects the fluctuation degree of the sample data. The upper and bottom whiskers represent the maximum and minimum values (excluding outliers), respectively.
Fig. 6 Prediction of the CEWI for the 25 water environmental management units in 2023 as well as the changes of the CEWI from 2018 to 2023. Note that the histogram represents the CEWI for the 25 water environmental management units from 2018 to 2023.
Fig. 7 Comparison of the CEWI for the 25 water environmental management units in 2018 (positive values) and its accumulated decline (negative values) after the changes of each indicator in 2018. Note that the change of indicators was based on the assumed measures (alleviating pressures or enhancing supports) taken.
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