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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2025, Vol. 17 Issue (4): 481-499    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-025-0097-4    
Research article     
Spatiotemporal variations and driving mechanisms of flash droughts during 1981-2020 in the Qilian Mountains, China
BAI Junhong1,2, WANG Jianglin1,*(), CHEN Jie3, WANG Xuejia3
1Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
2University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
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Abstract  

Flash drought is characterized by a period of rapid drought intensification with impacts on agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, and human environment. In the Qilian Mountains, northwestern China, flash droughts are becoming more frequently due to the global climate warming. However, the spatiotemporal variations and their driving factors of flash droughts are not clear in this region. In this study, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5-Land (ERA5-Land) dataset was utilized to identify two types of flash drought events (heatwave-induced and water scarcity-induced flash drought events) that occurred in the growing season (April‒September) during 1981-2020 in this area. The results showed that the frequency of heatwave-induced flash droughts has decreased since 2010, while the frequency of water scarcity-induced flash droughts has declined markedly. Spatially, heatwave-induced flash droughts were predominantly concentrated in the western Qilian Mountains, whereas water scarcity-induced flash droughts were primarily concentrated in the central and eastern Qilian Mountains. A significantly increasing temporal trend in both types of flash droughts in the eastern Qilian Mountains was found. Meanwhile, there was a decreasing temporal trend of heatwave-induced flash droughts in the southwestern part of the region. Additionally, the influence of two major atmospheric modes, i.e., the El Niño‒Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), on these two types of flash droughts was explored by the Superposed Epoch Analysis. The ENSO mainly influences flash droughts in the central and eastern parts of the Qilian Mountains by altering the strength of the East Asian monsoon, while the NAO mainly affects flash droughts in the entire parts of the Qilian Mountains by inducing anomalous westerlies activity. Our findings have important implications for predicting the evolution of flash drought events in the Qilian Mountains region under continued climate warming.

Key words： heatwave-induced flash drought      water scarcity-induced flash drought      El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)      North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)      Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA)      wavelet coherence     
Received: 09 December 2024      Published: 30 April 2025
Corresponding Authors: *WANG Jianglin (E-mail: wangjianglin2011@lzb.ac.cn)
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BAI Junhong
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BAI Junhong, WANG Jianglin, CHEN Jie, WANG Xuejia. Spatiotemporal variations and driving mechanisms of flash droughts during 1981-2020 in the Qilian Mountains, China. Journal of Arid Land, 2025, 17(4): 481-499.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-025-0097-4     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2025/V17/I4/481

Fig. 1 Wind field (a) and landforms (b) of the Qilian Mountains. The maps used in this study were sourced from the Resource and Environmental Science Data Platform (https://www.resdc.cn/data.aspx?DATAID=123) and the ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (https://www.jspacesystems.or.jp/ersdac/GDEM/E). DEM, digital elevation model.
Fig. 2 Identification processes for the two types of flash drought events as well as their spatiotemporal variations. Tano, temperature anomaly value; Tstd, standard deviation of temperature anomaly; SMq soil moisture within a specific 5-d period; ETano, evapotranspiration anomaly value; ENSO, El Niño‒Southern Oscillation; NAO, North Atlantic Oscillation.
Fig. 3 Normalized time series of ENSO (a) and NAO (b) indices in December-January-February (DJF) during 1981‒2020. Red and green bars represent positive and negative ENSO anomaly years, respectively; yellow and blue bars represent positive and negative NAO anomaly years, respectively. The dashed lines indicate the boundaries where data points deviate from the mean by ±1 standard deviation.
Oscillation Category Anomalous year
ENSO Positive years 1983, 1987, 1991, 1992, 1998, 2015, and 2016
Negative years 1985, 1989, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2008, and 2011
NAO Positive years 1993, 1994, 2014, 2015, and 2018
Negative years 1985, 1987, 1996, 2009, and 2010
Table 1 Anomalous years of El Niño‒Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices during 1981-2020
Fig. 4 Interannual and decadal changes in heatwave-induced (a) and water scarcity-induced (b) flash drought events during 1981‒2020, and interannual and decadal changes in annual average temperature (c) and annual total precipitation (d) during 1981‒2017
Fig. 5 Spatial distributions of heatwave-induced (a) and water scarcity-induced (b) flash drought events in the Qilian Mountains during 1981‒2020
Fig. 6 Variation trend of spatial distributions of heatwave-induced (a) and water scarcity-induced (b) flash drought events in the Qilian Mountains during 1981‒2020
Condition Type of drought event Composite mean value Confidence interval (95%) Significant
ENSO positive phase Heatwave-induced flash drought 0.1366 -0.2061-0.2366 False
ENSO positive phase Water scarcity-induced flash drought 0.4783 -0.8376-0.4441 True
ENSO negative phase Heatwave-induced flash drought -0.2919 -0.2061-0.2366 True
ENSO negative phase Water scarcity-induced flash drought 0.1925 -0.8376-0.4441 False
NAO positive phase Heatwave-induced flash drought -0.0348 -0.2061-0.2366 False
NAO positive phase Water scarcity-induced flash drought -1.3217 -0.8376-0.4441 True
NAO negative phase Heatwave-induced flash drought -0.0348 -0.2061-0.2366 False
NAO negative phase Water scarcity-induced flash drought -0.1217 -0.8376-0.4441 False
Table 2 Anomaly testing for anomalous years of the ENSO and NAO
Fig. 7 Wavelet coherence analysis between the frequencies of heatwave-induced and water scarcity-induced flash drought events and the ENSO (a and c) and NAO (b and d) indices. Black arrows represent the phase relationships at designated frequencies and temporal coordinates, where the orientation of the arrows indicates whether the relationship is synchronous, antiphase, or exhibits phase advancement or delay. A black line indicates that the red noise test was passed at the 95% confidence level.
Fig. 8 Responses of occurrence anomalies of heatwave-induced (a and b) and water scarcity-induced (c and d) flash drought events during anomalous years to different phases of the ENSO. *, significance at P<0.05 level.
Fig. 9 Composite analysis of moisture flux under positive (a) and negative (b) phases of the ENSO. Arrows indicate the vector field of vapor transport, representing the direction and intensity of the water vapor flux. IVT, integrated vapor transport.
Fig. 10 Occurrence anomalies of heatwave-induced (a and b) and water scarcity-induced (c and d) flash drought events in response to anomalous years of the NAO. *, significance at P<0.05 level.
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