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Journal of Arid Land  2025, Vol. 17 Issue (7): 958-978    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-025-0104-9     CSTR: 32276.14.JAL.02501049
Research article     
Spatiotemporal dynamic and drivers of ecological environmental quality on the Chinese Loess Plateau: Insights from kRSEI model and climate-human interaction analysis
XI Ruiyun1, PEI Tingting1, CHEN Ying1,*(), XIE Baopeng1, HOU Li1, WANG Wen2,3
1College of Management, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China
2Gansu Natural Resources Planning and Research Institute, Lanzhou 730070, China
3Gansu Branch of the Key Laboratory of Land Use, Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, Lanzhou 730070, China
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Abstract  

The Loess Plateau (LP), one of the most ecologically fragile regions in China, is affected by severe soil erosion and environmental degradation. Despite large-scale ecological restoration efforts made by Chinese government in recent years, the region continues to face significant ecological challenges due to the combined impact of climate change and human activities. In this context, we developed a kernal Remote Sensing Ecological Index (kRSEI) using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns and trends in ecological environmental quality (EEQ) across the LP from 2000 to 2022 and project future trajectories. Then, we applied partial correlation analysis and multivariate regression residual analysis to further quantify the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to EEQ. During the study period, the kRSEI values exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, with a stepwise degradation pattern in the southeast to northwest across the LP. The maximum (0.51) and minimum (0.46) values of the kRSEI were observed in 2007 and 2021, respectively. Trend analyses revealed a decline in EEQ across the LP. Hurst exponent analysis predicted a trend of weak anti-persistent development in most of the plateau areas in the future. A positive correlation was identified between kRSEI and precipitation, particularly in the central and western regions; although, improvements were limited by a precipitation threshold of 837.66 mm/a. A moderate increase in temperature was shown to potentially benefit the ecological environment within a certain range; however, temperature of -1.00°C-7.95°C often had a negative impact on the ecosystem. Climate change and human activities jointly influenced 65.78% of LP area on EEQ, primarily having a negative impact. In terms of contribution, human activities played a dominant role in driving changes in EEQ across the plateau. These findings provide crucial insights for accurately assessing the ecological state of the LP and suggest the design of future restoration strategies.



Key wordsecological environmental quality      Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI)      kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI)      climate change      human activities      ecological restoration      Loess Plateau     
Received: 23 February 2025      Published: 31 July 2025
Corresponding Authors: *CHEN Ying (E-mail: cheny@gsau.edu)
Cite this article:

XI Ruiyun, PEI Tingting, CHEN Ying, XIE Baopeng, HOU Li, WANG Wen. Spatiotemporal dynamic and drivers of ecological environmental quality on the Chinese Loess Plateau: Insights from kRSEI model and climate-human interaction analysis. Journal of Arid Land, 2025, 17(7): 958-978.

URL:

http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-025-0104-9     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2025/V17/I7/958

Fig. 1 Elevation (a) and land cover of the Loess Plateau (LP). Note that the figures of the LP region were sourced from the Global Change Research Data Publishing & Repository (https://www.geodoi.ac.cn/WebCn/doi.aspx?Id=199), and the boundary has not been modified.
Slope value Z value Change category Trend characteristic
Slope>0.0000 2.58<Z 4 Extremely significant increase
1.96<Z≤2.58 3 Significant increase
1.65<Z≤1.96 2 Slight increase
Z1.65 1 No significant increase
Slope=0.0000 - 0 No change
Slope<0.0000 Z≤1.65 -1 No significant decrease
1.65<Z≤1.96 -2 Slight decrease
1.96<Z≤2.58 -3 Significant decrease
2.58<Z -4 Extremely significant decrease
Table 1 Change category of ecological environmental quality (EEQ) variation based on Sen's slope analysis and Mann-Kendall (MK) test
Slope value Hurst index (H) Future trend category Trend characteristic
Slope< -0.0005 0.65<H<1.00 1 Strong sustained degradation
Slope< -0.0005 0.50<H<0.65 2 Weak sustained degradation
Slope≥0.0005 0.00<H<0.35 3 Reversed strong sustained improvement
Slope≥0.0005 0.35<H<0.50 4 Reversed weak sustained improvement
Slope< -0.0005 0.35<H<0.50 5 Reversed weak sustained degradation
Slope< -0.0005 0.00<H<0.35 6 Reversed strong sustained degradation
Slope≥0.0005 0.50<H<0.65 7 Weak sustained improvement
Slope≥0.0005 0.65<H<1.00 8 Strong sustained improvement
-0.0005Slope<0.0005 - 9 No change
Table 2 Classification of future trends in EEQ based on Hurst exponent analysis
Slope(kRSEIobs) Driver Criteria for determining driver Contribution rate
Slope(kRSEICC) Slope(kRSEIHA) Climate change Human activities
>0.0000 Climate change and human activities >0.0000 >0.0000 $\frac{\text { Slpoe }\left(\mathrm{kRSEI}_{\mathrm{CC}}\right)}{\text { Slpoe }\left(\mathrm{kRSEI}_{\text {obs }}\right)} \times 100 \%$ $\frac{\text { Slpoe }\left(\text { kRSEI }_{\text {HA }}\right)}{\text { Slpoe }\left(\text { kRSEI }_{\text {obs }}\right)} \times 100 \%$
Climate change >0.0000 <0.0000 100% 0%
Human activities <0.0000 >0.0000 0% 100%
<0.0000 Climate change and human activities <0.0000 <0.0000 $\frac{\text { Slpoe }\left(\mathrm{kRSEI}_{\mathrm{CC}}\right)}{\text { Slpoe }\left(\mathrm{kRSEI}_{\text {obs }}\right)} \times 100 \%$ $\frac{\text { Slpoe }\left(\mathrm{kRSEI}_{\mathrm{HA}}\right)}{\text { Slpoe }\left(\mathrm{kRSEI}_{\text {obs }}\right)} \times 100 \%$
Climate change <0.0000 >0.0000 100% 0%
Human activities >0.0000 <0.0000 0% 100%
Table 3 Assessment criteria for identifying the drivers of kernel Remote Sensing Ecological Index (kRSEI) variation and calculation of contribution rate
Fig. 2 Scatterplot of kernal Remote Sensing Ecological Index (kRSEI) with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI; a), Land Surface Temperature (LST; b), Wetness Index (WI; c), and Normalized Difference Built-up Soil Index (NDBSI; d)
Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of ecological environmental quality (EEQ) levels on the LP from 2000 to 2022. (a), 2000; (b), 2005; (c), 2010; (d), 2015; (e), 2020; (f), 2022.
Fig. 4 Proportion of area with different EEQ levels on the LP (a) and linear fit of the annual mean kRSEI values from 2000 to 2022 (b)
Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of slope values (a) and EEQ change categories (b) on the LP from 2000 to 2022
Change category Trend characteristic Area proportion (%)
4 Extremely significant increase 5.62
3 Significant increase 4.70
2 Slight increase 2.87
1 No significant increase 19.54
0 No change 1.04
-1 No significant decrease 30.28
-2 Slight decrease 6.46
-3 Significant decrease 12.03
-4 Extremely significant decrease 17.46
Table 4 Results of MK test showing the trends in EEQ on the LP from 2000 to 2022 and corresponding areas
Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of Hurst index (H) values (a) and future trends in EEQ (b) on the LP
Future trend category Trend characteristic Area proportion (%)
1 Strong sustained degradation 5.63
2 Weak sustained degradation 6.39
3 Reversed strong sustained improvement 1.95
4 Reversed weak sustained improvement 1.99
5 Reversed weak sustained degradation 6.90
6 Reversed strong sustained degradation 5.32
7 Weak sustained improvement 1.95
8 Strong sustained improvement 2.12
9 No change 0.01
Table 5 Future trends in EEQ and corresponding areas on the LP
Fig. 7 Correlation of kRSEI with precipitation (a) and temperature (b)
Fig. 8 Spatial distribution of significant correlation of kRSEI with precipitation (a) and temperature (b)
Fig. 9 Threshold effect of precipitation (a) and temperature (b) on kRSEI on the LP from 2000 to 2022, and three-dimensional response surface of kRSEI to temperature and precipitation on the LP in 2000 (c) and 2022 (d). The blue curve in Figure 9a1 and b1 represents the fitted response. Figure 9a2 and b2 shows the marginal effect of precipitation and temperature on kRSEI, respectively. The dkRSEI/dprecipitation and dkRSEI/dtemperature are first derivatives, reflecting the rate of variation.
Fig. 10 Impact of climate change (CC) and human activities (HA) on kRSEI variation across the LP from 2000 to 2022. (a), spatial distribution of the co-contribution of CC and HA to kRSEI variation; (b and c), spatial distribution of the contributions of CC and HA to kRSEI variation, respectively; (d), proportional contributions of CC and HA to kRSEI variation across different land use types. Slope>0.0000 represents positive effect on kRSEI, and slope<0.0000 represents negative effect on kRSEI.
Fig. 11 Spatial distribution of the six types of ecological zones on the LP determined based on the contributions of climate change and human activities to kRSEI variation. (a), synergistic improvement zone; (b), climate-advantage zone; (c), human-driven zone; (d), comprehensive degradation zone; (e), climate-sensitive zone; (f), human disturbance zone.
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