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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2024, Vol. 16 Issue (8): 1098-1117    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-024-0105-0
Research article     
Effects of temperature and precipitation on drought trends in Xinjiang, China
YANG Jianhua1,*(), LI Yaqian1, ZHOU Lei2, ZHANG Zhenqing1, ZHOU Hongkui3, WU Jianjun1,4
1Academy of Eco-civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
2School of Geomatics and Urban Spatial Informatics, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044, China
3Institute of Digital Agriculture, Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hangzhou 310021, China
4Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
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Abstract  

The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Xinjiang), China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation, however, the effects of temperature and precipitation—the two most important factors influencing drought—have not yet been thoroughly explored in this region. In this study, we first calculated the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 based on the monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature. Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature, precipitation, and drought in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test. A series of SPEI-based scenario-setting experiments by combining the observed and detrended climatic factors were utilized to quantify the effects of individual climatic factor (i.e., temperature and precipitation). The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation had experienced increasing trends at most meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020, especially the spring temperature and winter precipitation. Due to the influence of temperature, trends of intensifying drought have been observed at spring, summer, autumn, and annual scales. In addition, the drought trends in southern Xinjiang were more notable than those in northern Xinjiang. From 1980 to 2020, temperature trends exacerbated drought trends, but precipitation trends alleviated drought trends in Xinjiang. Most meteorological stations in Xinjiang exhibited temperature-dominated drought trend except in winter; in winter, most stations exhibited precipitation-dominated wetting trend. The findings of this study highlight the importance of the impact of temperature on drought in Xinjiang and deepen the understanding of the factors influencing drought.

Key words： standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)      climate change      drought characteristics      trend analysis      arid area      temperature trend      contribution analysis     
Received: 30 April 2024      Published: 31 August 2024
Corresponding Authors: *YANG Jianhua (E-mail: yangjh15@mail.bnu.edu.cn)
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YANG Jianhua
LI Yaqian
ZHOU Lei
ZHANG Zhenqing
ZHOU Hongkui
WU Jianjun
Cite this article:

YANG Jianhua, LI Yaqian, ZHOU Lei, ZHANG Zhenqing, ZHOU Hongkui, WU Jianjun. Effects of temperature and precipitation on drought trends in Xinjiang, China. Journal of Arid Land, 2024, 16(8): 1098-1117.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-024-0105-0     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2024/V16/I8/1098

Fig. 1 Location of 56 meteorological stations adopted by this study in Xinjiang. Noted that the figure is based on the standard map (No. 新S(2021)047) of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Platform for Common Geospatial Information Services (https://xinjiang.tianditu.gov.cn/main/bzdt.html) marked by the Department of Natural Resources of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, and the base map has not been modified.
Value Classification
SPEI< -2.00 Extreme drought
-2.00≤SPEI< -1.50 Severe drought
-1.50≤SPEI< -1.00 Moderate drought
-1.00≤SPEI< -0.50 Slight drought
-0.50≤SPEI≤0.50 Normal
SPEI>0.50 Wet
Table 1 Drought classification based on the value of standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)
Scenario SPEI Description
Obs SPEIObs SPEI is calculated on the basis of the observed temperature and observed precipitation
DtOp SPEIDtOp SPEI is calculated on the basis of the detrended temperature and observed precipitation
OtDp SPEIOtDp SPEI is calculated on the basis of the observed temperature and detrended precipitation
Table 2 Scenario setting
Dominant type Abbreviation Cr_tas Cr_pre Absolute value comparison
Ⅰ T_drought <0 <0 |Cr_tas|>|Cr_pre|
<0 >0 |Cr_tas|>|Cr_pre|
Ⅱ T_wet >0 >0 |Cr_tas|>|Cr_pre|
>0 <0 |Cr_tas|>|Cr_pre|
Ⅲ P_drought >0 <0 |Cr_tas|<|Cr_pre|
<0 <0 |Cr_tas|<|Cr_pre|
Ⅳ P_wet >0 >0 |Cr_tas|<|Cr_pre|
<0 >0 |Cr_tas|<|Cr_pre|
Table 3 Division rule for the dominant factors of drought and wetting trends
Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of temperature trends in Xinjiang at seasonal (a-d) and annual (e) scales from 1980 to 2020
Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of precipitation trends in Xinjiang at seasonal (a-d) and annual (e) scales from 1980 to 2020
Fig. 4 Change trends of temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang (a, d, g, j, and m), northern Xinjiang (b, e, h, k, and n), and southern Xinjiang (c, f, i, l, and o) at seasonal and annual scales from 1980 to 2020
Region SPEI trend (/10a)
Spring Summer Autumn Winter Full year
Xinjiang -0.26* -0.20 -0.07 0.32* -0.21
Northern Xinjiang -0.13 -0.20 -0.03 0.30* -0.14
Southern Xinjiang -0.38* -0.04 -0.20 0.15 -0.30*
Table 4 Drought trends in Xinjiang at seasonal and annual scales from 1980 to 2020
Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of drought trends in Xinjiang at seasonal (a-d) and annual (d) scales at from 1980 to 2020
Scenario Region SPEI trend (/10a)
Spring Summer Autumn Winter Full year
Obs Xinjiang −0.26* −0.20 −0.07 0.32* −0.21
Northern Xinjiang −0.13 −0.20 −0.03 0.30* −0.14
Southern Xinjiang −0.38* −0.04 −0.20 0.15 −0.30*
DtOp Xinjiang 0.12 0.16 0.14 0.32* 0.25
Northern Xinjiang 0.16 0.09 0.08 0.30* 0.15
Southern Xinjiang 0.02 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.17
OtDp Xinjiang −0.30* −0.32* −0.17 0.02 −0.28*
Northern Xinjiang −0.19 −0.26 −0.06 0.03 −0.25
Southern Xinjiang −0.39* −0.20 −0.39* 0.01 −0.43*
Table 5 Drought trends in Xinjiang at seasonal and annual scales from 1980 to 2020 under different scenarios
Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of drought trends in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 under the Obs (a, d, g, j, and m), DtOp (b, e, h, k, and n), and OtDp (c, f, i, l, and o) scenarios. Obs, observed temperature and precipitation; DtOp, detrended temperature and observed precipitation; OtDp, observed temperature and detrended precipitation.
Fig. 7 Contribution of temperature and precipitation trends to drought trends at seasonal (a, b, c, d, e, f, h, i, j, k, and l) and annual (m, n, and o) scales in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020. Tas, temperature; Pre, precipitation.
Fig. 8 Spatial distribution of dominant factors influencing the drought and wetting trends in Xinjiang at seasonal (a-d) and annual (e) scales from 1980 to 2020. T_drought, temperature-dominated drought trend; P_drought, precipitation-dominated drought trend; P_wet, precipitation-dominated wetting trend; T_wet, temperature-dominated wetting trend.
Region Temperature trend (°C/10a) Precipitation trend (mm/10a)
Spring Summer Autumn Winter Full year Spring Summer Autumn Winter Full year
Xinjiang 0.63** 0.31** 0.29* 0.10 0.32** 1.80 2.65 1.95 2.17* 8.58
Northern Xinjiang 0.67** 0.38** 0.22 0.10 0.34** 3.24 2.73 1.85 3.42* 8.93
Southern Xinjiang 0.58** 0.25** 0.39** 0.13 0.33** 0.14 5.31 1.82* 0.66 7.81*
Table 6 Temperature and precipitation trends in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020
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