| Research Articles |
|
|
|
|
| Precipitation trends and variability from 1950 to 2000 in arid lands of Central Asia |
| XU Ligang1,2, ZHOU Hongfei1*, DU Li2, YAO Haijiao1, WANG Huaibo2 |
1 Fukang National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Desert Ecosystems, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
2 Scientific Research Institute of Water Conservancy of Ningxia, Yinchuan 750021, China |
|
|
|
Abstract Climate warming will cause differences in precipitation distribution and changes in hydrological cycle both at regional and global scales. Arid lands of Central Asia (ALCA), one of the largest arid regions at the middle latitudes in the world, is likely to be strongly influenced by climate warming. Understanding the precipitation variations in the past is an important prerequisite for predicting future precipitation trends and thus managing regional water resources in such an arid region. In this study, we used run theory, displacement, extreme deviation theory, precipitation concentration index (PCI), Mann-Kendall rank correlation and climatic trend coefficient methods to analyze the precipitation in wet and dry years, changes in precipitation over multiple-time scales, variability of precipitation and its rate of change based on the monthly precipitation data during 1950–2000 from 344 meteorological stations in the ALCA. The occurrence probability of a single year with abundant precipitation was higher than that of a single year with less precipitation. The average duration of extreme drought in the entire area was 5 years, with an average annual water deficit of 34.6 mm (accounting for 11.2% of the average annual precipitation over the duration). The occurrence probability of a single wet year was slightly higher than that of a single dry year. The occurrence probability of more than 5 consecutive wet years was 5.8%, while the occurrence probability of more than 5 consecutive dry years was 6.2%. In the center of the study area, the distribution of precipitation was stable at an intra-annual timescale, with small changes at an inter-annual timescale. In the western part of the study area, the monthly variation of precipitation was high at an inter-annual timescale. There were clear seasonal changes in precipitation (PCI=12–36) in the ALCA. Precipitation in spring and winter accounted for 37.7% and 24.4% of the annual precipitation, respectively. There was a significant inter-annual change in precipitation in the arid Northwest China (PCI=24–34). Annual precipitation increased significantly (P=0.05) in 17.4% of all the meteorological stations over the study period. The probability of an increase in annual precipitation was 75.6%, with this increase being significant (P=0.05) at 34.0% of all the meteorological stations. The average increasing rate in annual precipitation was 3.9 mm/10a (P=0.01) in the ALCA. There were significant increasing trends (P=0.01) in precipitation in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, with rates of 2.6, 3.1 and 3.7 mm/10a, respectively.
|
|
Received: 31 October 2014
Published: 10 August 2015
|
| Fund: This research was financially supported by International Science & Technology Cooperation Program of China (2010DFA92720),the Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW-T09) and the Post-doctoral Fund Pro-gram of China (2013M542416). |
|
Corresponding Authors:
|
|
|
| Aizen E M, Aizen V B, Melack J M, et al. 2001. Precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns at mid-latitudes of Asia. International Journal of Climatology, 21: 535–556.Cai M K. 2003. Comparative study on hydrologic-meteorological- drought characteristics of Guanzhong areas. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 22(6): 33–37. (in Chinese)Chen F H, Chen J H, Huang W. 2009. Discussion on “westerly mode” of climate change in the middle laltitude during the ice age. Earth Science Frontiers, 16(6): 23–32. Chen F H, Chen J H, Holmes J, et al. 2010. Moisture changes over the last millennium in arid central Asia: a review, synthesis and comparison with monsoon region. Quaternary Science Reviews, 29: 1055–1068.Chen F H, Huang W, Jin L Y, et al. 2011. Spatiotemporal precipitation variations in the arid Central Asia in the context of global warming. Science China Earth Sciences, 54(12): 1812–1821.De L M, Raventos J, Gonza J C, et al. 2000. Spatial analysis of rainfall trends in the region of Valencia (East Spain). International Journal of Climatology, 20: 1451–1469.Feng X L, Feng Z L, Luo L C, et al. 2008. Fractal analysis of climate change and Hurst index experiment in Tibetan Plateau in future. Arid Land Geography, 31(2): 175–181. (in Chinese)Hedi O, Katerina N, Anna P, et al. 2011. Variability in precipitation, temperature and river runoff in Central Asia during the past 2000 yrs. Global and Planetary Change, 76: 95–104.Henkin Z, Hadar L, Noy M I. 2007. Human-scale structural heterogeneity induced by grazing in a Mediterranean woodland landscape. Landscape Ecology, 22: 577–587.Huang R H, Zhou D G, Chen W, et al. 2013. Recent progress in studies of air-land interaction over the ANWC and its impact on climate. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 37(2): 189–210. (in Chinese)IPCC. 2007. Summary for Policymakers of Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 4–6.Kan G S. 1986. Preliminary discussion of agricultural drought based on displacement theory. Journal of China Hydrology, 2: 12–18. (in Chinese)Lan Y C, Xiao H L, Hu X L, et al. 2012. Study of temperature and precipitation change in upstream mountain area of the Hexi inland river basin since 1960s. Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions, 4(6): 522–535.Li F P, Zhang Y Q, Xu Z X. 2013. The impact of climate change on runoff in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Hydrology, 505: 188–201.Lioubimtseva E, Colea R, Adams J M, et al. 2005. Impacts of climate and land-cover changes in arid lands of Central Asia. Journal of Arid Environments, 62: 285–308. Lioubimtseva E, Henebry G M. 2009. Climate and environmental change in arid Central Asia: Impacts, vulnerability and adaptations. Journal of Arid Environments. 73: 963–977.Narisma G T, Foley J A, Licker R, et al. 2007. Abrupt changes in rainfall during the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(6), L06710, doi: 10.1029/2006GL028628. Oliver B, Klaus F, Zhu X H. 2012. Precipitation climate of Central Asia and the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(3–4): 345–354.Qing Y C, Liu K. 2003. Advancement of applied studies of fractal theory in geography. Progress in Geography, 22(4): 426–436. (in Chinese)Ren J M, You L, Gao J F, et al. 2005. Studies on climatic change of last 40 years on Erdos Plateau. Journal of Desert Research, 25(6): 874–879. (in Chinese)Rogers J C, Van Loon H. 1979. The seesaw in winter temperatures between Greenland and northern Europe. Part II: Some oceanic and atmospheric effects in middle and high latitudes. Month-ly Weather Review, 107: 509–519.Trenberth K E, Dai A, Rasmussen R M, et al. 2003. The changing character of precipitation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84: 1205–1217.Ursula G, Vahid N, Igor K, et al. 2013. The relationship between precipitation anomalies and satellite-derived vegetation activity in Central Asia. Global and Planetary Change, 110: 74–87.Wang B, Bao Q, Hoskings B, et al. 2008. Tibetan Plateau warming and precipitation change in East Asia. Geophysical Research Letter, 35, L14702, doi: 10.1029/2008GL034330.Wang H J, Chen Y N, Chen Z S. 2013a. Spatial distribution and temporal trends of mean precipitation and extremes in the arid region, northwest of China, during 1960–2010. Hydrological Processes, 27(12): 1807–1818.Wang S J, Zhang M J, Sun M P, et al. 2013b. Changes in precipitation extremes in alpine areas of the Chinese Tianshan Mountains, central Asia, 1961–2011. Quaternary International, 311: 97–107.Wehrden V H, Hanspach J, Ronnenberg K, et al. 2010. Inter-annual rainfall variability in Central Asia: A contribution to the discussion on the importance of environmental stochasticity in drylands. Journal of Arid Environments, 74(10): 1212–1215.Xu L G, Zhou H F, Liang C, et al. 2010. Spatial and temporal variability of annual and seasonal precipitation over the desert region of China during 1951–2005. Hydrological Processes, 24(20): 2947–2959.Xu Z, Gong T, Li J. 2008. Decadal trend of climate in the Tibetan Plateau-regional temperature and precipitation. Hydrological Processes, 22(16): 3056–3065.Yao J Q, Yang Q, Chen Y N, et al. 2013. Climate change in arid areas of Northwest China in past 50 years and its effects on the local ecological environment. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 32(5): 1283–1291. (in Chinese)Yue S, Pilon P, Cavadias G. 2002. Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. Journal of Hydrology, 259: 254–271. |
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
| |
Shared |
|
|
|
|
| |
Discussed |
|
|
|
|
