A look into the past, present and future potential distributions of Talinopsis frutescens, a North American endemic lineage closely related to Cactaceae
Mónica I MIGUEL-VÁZQUEZ1, Yasser S LÓPEZ DE OLMOS R2, Gilberto OCAMPO1,*()
1 Department of Biology, Basic Sciences Center, Autonomous University of Aguascalientes, 940 University Avenue, Aguascalientes 20130, Mexico 2 Biological and Health Sciences PhD Program, Department of Biology, Biological and Health Sciences Division, Autonomous Metropolitan University, Iztapalapa 09340, Mexico
Talinopsis frutescens (Anacampserotaceae, a family that is close related to Cactaceae) is a succulent species endemic to North America. The aim of this study was to explore, using Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM), changes in potential distribution ranges considering different climate scenarios: past conditions during the Last Inter Glacial (LIG) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the present and projections for 2070 (RCP 2.6 to 8.5). A pattern of contraction is observed during the LIG, which agrees with other studies focused in species from arid environments. This pattern was followed by a migration towards the south during the LGM and a possible recent expansion to the north as is observed in the present scenario. All future projections show the same contraction and fragmentation patterns, resulting in three discontinuous areas: the northern part of the Chihuahuan Desert, the southern-central part of the Mexican Plateau, and the smallest one in the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Valley. Our projections for future scenarios agree with other studies and support that global climate change tends to alter the current distribution of arid environment species.
Mónica I MIGUEL-VÁZQUEZ, Yasser S LÓPEZ DE OLMOS R, Gilberto OCAMPO. A look into the past, present and future potential distributions of Talinopsis frutescens, a North American endemic lineage closely related to Cactaceae. Journal of Arid Land, 2020, 12(1): 104-114.
Fig. 1 Current known distribution of Talinopsis frutescens, including relevant biogeographic regions mentioned
in the text
Country
State
City/County
Record
United States of America
New Mexico
Doña Ana
P. J. Alexander 941 (SP); F. R. Fosberg 53581 (RSA); R. D. Worthington 14310, 17204, 17214 (SP).
Otero
E. Ward and R. Soreng 81/545 (SP).
Texas
Brewster
A. M. Powell and B. Turner 6457 (SP); Sherman et al. 123 (GBIF).
Culberson
Y. Chauvin 07YC027-DS11 (SP); R. D. Worthington 23377 (SP).
El Paso
R. D. Worthington 19892 (SP); R. D. Worthington 18335 (SP); R. D. Worthington 18345 (SP); R. D. Worthington 25171 (SP).
Hudspeth
R. D. Worthington s.n. (SP).
Presidio
W. R. Carr 31783 (SP); E. J. Lott et al. 4717 (SP); A. C. Sanders 4169 (SP); R. D. Worthington 22592 (RSA).
Mexico
Aguascalientes
Aguascalientes
M. de la Cerda 1216 (HUAA); G. García 4516 (HUAA); G. González A. 310 (HUAA); G. Ocampo A. 1949 (HUAA).
Asientos
G. García 5490a (HUAA).
Calvillo
M. de la Cerda and G. García 1119 (HUAA); G. González A. 1073 (HUAA); M. C. Macías 311 (HUAA).
Cosío
M. E. Siqueiros D. 2510 (HUAA).
Jesús María
M. de la Cerda 6232 (HUAA); G. García 5453 (HUAA).
Rincón de Romos
M. de la Cerda 1608 (HUAA); G. García 5526 (HUAA).
San José de Gracia
M. de la Cerda and G. García 1058 (HUAA).
Chihuahua
Ahumada
E. Lehto et al. L-21487 (S. P.).
Aldama
M. Miguel V. et al. 771, 772 (HUAA); C. Yen and E. Estrada 8693 (ANSM).
Allende
E. Aldrete M. s.n. (INEGI).
Aquiles Serdán
E. Lehto et al. L-21555 (SP).
Ascención
V. M. López S. V5.4 (INEGI).
Camargo
R. Aguirre C. s.n. (INEGI).
Jiménez
J. Henrickson 5954b (MEXU); M. Miguel V. et al. 773 (HUAA).
Coahuila
Múzquiz
R. Morán 6264 (MEXU).
Ramos Arizpe
J. A. Villarreal and M. A. Carranza 4526 (ANSM).
Torreón
E. Estrada 20689 (ANSM).
Durango
Gómez Palacio
H. S. Gentry and R. G. Engard 23096 (GBIF); M. Miguel V. et al. 774 (HUAA).
Guadalupe Victoria
H. S. Gentry 8401 (RSA).
Hidalgo
M. Miguel V. et al. 770 (HUAA); E. Morales 14 (CIIDIR).
Lerdo
H. H. Iltis 101 (UNIBIO); M. C. Johnston et al. *258619 LL (REMIB); J. A. Villarreal *258615 TEX (REMIB).
Mezquital
M. C. González G. 652 (CIIDIR); Y. Herrera 137 (CIIDIR); M. Miguel V. et al. 768 (HUAA).
Nuevo Ideal
N. Almaraz A. 39 (CIIDIR); M. Miguel V. et al. 769 (HUAA).
Santiago Papasquiaro
R. Corral D. and R. D. Worthington 500 (GBIF).
Tlahualilo
A. García A. 3009, 3048, 3255, 3340, 3737 (CIIDIR)
Guanajuato
Comonfort
S. Zamudio 5663 (RSA).
Dolores Hidalgo
M. Miguel V. et al. 756 (HUAA); R. Ocampo 51 (IEB); E. Ventura and E. López 6068 (IEB).
Ocampo
E. Carranza and L. Torres R. 4107 (IEB); M. Miguel V. et al. 755 (HUAA); J. Rzedowski 52260 (IEB).
San Diego de la Unión
J. Rzedowski 52110 (IEB).
San Felipe
J. Rzedowski 38658, 43650 (IEB).
San José Iturbide
J. Gutiérrez G. and A. Ramírez 152, 386 (IEB).
San Luis de la Paz
J. N. Labat and E. Carranza G. 2525 (GBIF); M. Miguel V. et al. 757 (HUAA); E. Ventura 9372 (IEB); S. Zamudio R. et al. 11599 (IEB).
San Miguel de Allende
G. Ocampo A. and N. Sandoval 1937 (HUAA).
Tarimoro
J. Rzedowski 40538 (IEB).
Victoria
M. Miguel V. et al. 758 (HUAA).
To be continued
Continued
Country
State
City/County
Record
Hidalgo
Ajacuba
M. Miguel V. et al. 762 (HUAA).
Epazoyucan
J. Rzedowski s.n. (REMIB).
Tizayuca
M. E. Castilla and D. Tejero s.n. (REMIB).
Jalisco
Lagos de Moreno
R. McVaugh s.n. (REMIB); M. Miguel V. et al. 754 (HUAA).
Ojuelos de Jalisco
P. Carrillo-Reyes et al. 465, 505 (IEB); G. López D. et al. 17 (IEB).
Nuevo León
Aramberri
GSH s.n. (GBIF); M. Miguel V. et al. 775 (HUAA).
Galeana
Hinton et al. 25675 (IEB); s.n. (REMIB).
Rayones
Hinton et al. 20816 (GBIF).
Santa Catarina
J. A. Villarreal and D. Jasso 9055 (GBIF).
Puebla
San José Miahuatlán
F. Chiang C. F-2236 (MEXU); M. Miguel V. et al. 764 (HUAA); A. Salinas T. 4070 (MEXU).
Zapotitlán
M. Miguel V. et al. 763 (HUAA).
Querétaro
Cadereyta de Montes
M. Miguel V. et al. 760 (HUAA); O. Rubio G. 329 (IEB); S. Zamudio R. 3183 (IEB).
Colón
J. Rzedowski 48818 (IEB); S. Zamudio R. 7383 (IEB).
El Marqués
G. Ocampo and D. García 1003 (IEB).
Peñamiller
M. Miguel V. et al. 759 (HUAA); G. Ocampo A. and E. Pérez C. 1024 (RSA); S. Zamudio R. 3689 (IEB).
San Juan del Río
M. Miguel V. et al. 765 (HUAA).
Tequisquiapan
M. Miguel V. et al. 761 (HUAA).
Tolimán
G. Ocampo A. and E. Pérez C. 1218 (RSA); S. Zamudio R. 12200 (IEB).
San Luis Potosí
Ciudad Fernández
F. Chiang et al. 8205 (GBIF).
Guadalcázar
McGill et al. P-13527 (SP); O. J. Soto A. s.n. (INEGI).
Salinas de Hidalgo
G. Ocampo A. et al. 1943 (HUAA).
Santa María del Río
V. W. Steinmann et al. 3777 (IEB).
Villa de Reyes
J. A. Villarreal and J. Zavala B. 8449 (GBIF); J. García et al. 1277 (GBIF).
Zaragoza
T. Reeves R-6274 (GBIF).
Zacatecas
Cañitas de Felipe Pescador
J. J. Balleza and M. Adame G. 13557 (GBIF).
Cuauhtémoc
M. Miguel V. et al. 766 (HUAA).
Fresnillo
M. Miguel V. et al. 767 (HUAA); E. J. Rodríguez-Pérez 1610 (UAZ).
Guadalupe
E. J. Rodríguez-Pérez 894 (UAZ).
Loreto
J. J. Balleza and M. Adame G. 13944 (GBIF).
Luis Moya
E. J. Rodríguez-Pérez 1603 (UAZ).
Mazapil
F. Chiang C. et al. 7911 (GBIF); M. Miguel V. et al. 776 (HUAA); E. J. Rodríguez-Pérez 1641 (UAZ).
Melchor Ocampo
M. C. Johnson et al. 11536-B (GBIF).
Ojocaliente
E. J. Rodríguez-Pérez 1604 (UAZ).
Pinos
M. Miguel V. et al. 778 (HUAA).
Río Grande
F. Chiang C. et al. 10422-A (GBIF); E. J. Rodríguez-Pérez 1606, 1607 (UAZ).
Trancoso
G. Ocampo A. et al. 1948 (HUAA).
Villa de Cos
McGill et al. P-13505 (SP).
Villa García
J. J. Balleza and M. Adame G. 14051 (GBIF).
Villa Hidalgo
E. J. Rodríguez-Pérez 1608, 1609 (UAZ).
Table S1 Data sources
Variable code
Name of the variable
Contribution (%)
LIG
LGM
Present
Future RCP 2.6
Future RCP 4.5
Future RCP 6.0
Future RCP 8.5
BIO 1
Annual mean temperature
3.8
BIO 2
Mean diurnal range
4.8
8.6
1.4
3.0
5.4
7.7
BIO 3
Isothermality
32.9
9.2
33.5
27.8
29.2
25.7
BIO 4
Temperature seasonality
24.7
8.5
22.4
9.4
9.4
9.0
13.1
BIO 5
Maximum temperature of warmest month
1.3
2.0
1.1
BIO 6
Minimim temperature of coldest month
7.5
BIO 7
Temperature annual range
2.7
2.8
4.9
4.9
2.2
BIO 8
Mean temperature of wettest quarter
1.2
BIO 9
Mean temperature of driest quarter
9.0
15.3
12.3
12.2
11.1
11.0
BIO 10
Mean temperature of warmest quarter
11.3
6.8
1.2
BIO 11
Mean temperature of coldest quarter
1.9
BIO 12
Annual precipitation
1.1
2.8
BIO 13
Precipitation of wettest month
6.7
2.5
4.3
1.1
BIO 14
Precipitation of driest month
10.5
2.8
1.8
5.4
6.9
2.8
BIO 15
Precipitation seasonality
9.3
1.5
13.4
5.9
8.5
6.9
6.4
BIO 16
Precipitation of wettest quarter
1.9
1.5
3.6
1.6
3.2
BIO 17
Precipitation of driest quarter
11.0
2.0
3.9
2.0
BIO 18
Precipitation of warmest quarter
9.2
BIO 19
Precipitation of coldest quarter
1.2
18.7
18.9
21.4
19.4
23.9
23.0
Table 1 Relative contributions of environmental variables to the Maxent model under different scenarios
Scenario
B1
B2
LIG
0.2200
0.9231
LGM
0.1893
0.8875
Present
0.1839
0.9101
Future RCP 2.6
0.2055
0.9154
Future RCP 4.5
0.2012
0.9136
Future RCP 6.0
0.2110
0.9163
Future RCP 8.5
0.2079
0.9156
Table 2 Niche breadth metrics obtained for each one of the scenarios included in this study
Fig. 2 Ecological niche modeling of Talinopsis frutescens under different scenarios. a and b, Past: (a) Last Interglacial; (b) Last Glacial Maximum. (c) Present. d-g, Future, year 2070: (d) RCP 2.6; (e) RCP 4.5; (f) RCP 6.0; (g) RCP 8.5. Probabilities of occurrence are presented in color ramp, where the highest values are represented in red, and the lowest value in black. The present scenario includes the biogeographic regions mentioned in the text.
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