Orginal Article |
|
|
|
|
Reconstruction of hydrological changes based on tree-ring data of the Haba River, northwestern China |
Tongwen ZHANG1,2,3,*(), Yujiang YUAN1,2,3, Feng CHEN1,2,3, Shulong YU1,2,3, Ruibo ZHANG1,2,3, Li QIN1,2,3, Shengxia JIANG1,2,3 |
1 Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China 2 Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China 3 Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Ecology of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830002, China |
|
|
Abstract Reconstructing the hydrological change based on dendrohydrological data has important implications for understanding the dynamic distribution and evolution pattern of a given river. The widespread, long-living coniferous forests on the Altay Mountains provide a good example for carrying out the dendrohydrological studies. In this study, a regional composite tree-ring width chronology developed by Larix sibirica Ledeb. and Picea obovata Ledeb. was used to reconstruct a 301-year annual (from preceding July to succeeding June) streamflow for the Haba River, which originates in the southern Altay Mountains, Xinjiang, China. Results indicated that the reconstructed streamflow series and the observations were fitting well, and explained 47.5% of the variation in the observed streamflow of 1957-2008. Moreover, floods and droughts in 1949-2000 were precisely captured by the streamflow reconstruction. Based on the frequencies of the wettest/driest years and decades, we identified the 19th century as the century with the largest occurrence of hydrological fluctuations for the last 300 years. After applying a 21-year moving average, we found five wet (1724-1758, 1780-1810, 1822-1853, 1931-1967, and 1986-2004) and four dry (1759-1779, 1811-1821, 1854-1930, and 1968-1985) periods in the streamflow reconstruction. Furthermore, four periods (1770-1796, 1816-1836, 1884-1949, and 1973-1997) identified by the streamflow series had an obvious increasing trend. The increasing trend of streamflow since the 1970s was the biggest in the last 300 years and coincided with the recent warming-wetting trend in northwestern China. A significant correlation between streamflow and precipitation in the Altay Mountains indicated that the streamflow reconstruction contained not only local, but also broad-scale, hydro-climatic signals. The 24-year, 12-year, and 2.2-4.5-year cycles of the reconstruction revealed that the streamflow variability of the Haba River may be influenced by solar activity and the atmosphere-ocean system.
|
Received: 10 October 2016
Published: 10 February 2018
|
Corresponding Authors:
|
|
|
[1] | Allan R, Lindesay J, Parker D. 1996. El Nino: Southern Oscillation and Climatic Variability. Collinwood: CSIRO Publishing, 1-23. | [2] | Bai S Z, Li H, Zhang L M.2014. Variation characteristics of precipitation in winter in Altay area. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 8(1): 17-22. (in Chinese) | [3] | Bao G, Liu Y, Liu N.2012. A tree-ring-based reconstruction of the Yimin River annual runoff in the Hulun Buir region, Inner Mongolia, for the past 135 years. Chinese Science Bulletin, 57(36): 4765-4775. | [4] | Chen F, Yuan Y J, Wei W S, et al.2014. Precipitation reconstruction for the southern Altay Mountains (China) from tree rings of Siberian spruce, reveals recent wetting trend. Dendrochronologia, 32(3): 266-272. | [5] | Chen F, Yuan Y J, Zhang T W, et al.2015. Long-term drought severity variations in the northern Altay Mountains and its linkages to the Irtysh River streamflow variability. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 29(8): 93-98. (in Chinese) | [6] | Chen F, Yuan Y J, Davi N, et al.2016. Upper Irtysh River flow since AD 1500 as reconstructed by tree rings, reveals the hydroclimatic signal of inner Asia. Climatic Change, 139(3-4): 651-665. | [7] | Chen L F, Wang H Y.2004. Sensitivity of runoff to climate change in small drainage basins in China. Resources Science, 26(6): 62-68. (in Chinese) | [8] | Cook E R.1985. A time-series analysis approach to tree-ring standardization. PhD Dissertation. Tucson: The University of Arizona. | [9] | Cook E R, Kairiukstis L A.1990. Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 97-162. | [10] | Cook E R, Meko D M, Stahle D W, et al.1999. Drought reconstructions for the continental United States. Journal of Climate, 12(4): 1145-1162. | [11] | Cook E R, Krusic P J.2005. Program ARSTAN, A Tree-Ring Standardization Program Based on Detrending and Autoregressive Time Series Modeling, with Interactive Graphics. New York: Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University. | [12] | Dai A G, Trenberth K E, Qian T T.2004. A global dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 5(6): 1117-1130. | [13] | Devineni N, Lall U, Pederson N, et al.2013. A tree-ring-based reconstruction of Delaware River basin streamflow using hierarchical Bayesian regression. Journal of Climate, 26(12): 4357-4374. | [14] | FAO, IIASA, ISRIC, et al.2012. Harmonized World Soil Database (version 1.2). Rome, Italy: FAO. | [15] | Fritts H C. 1976. Tree Rings and Climate. London: Academic Press, 567. | [16] | Gou X H, Chen F H, Cook E, et al.2007. Streamflow variations of the Yellow River over the past 593 years in western China reconstructed from tree rings. Water Resources Research, 43(6): W06434. | [17] | Grissino-Mayer H D.2001. Evaluating crossdating accuracy: a manual and tutorial for the computer program COFECHA. Tree-Ring Research, 57(2): 205-221. | [18] | Jiang S X, Yuan Y J, Chen F, et al.2016. A 291 year precipitation reconstruction in the upper Irtysh River basin based on tree-ring width. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 36(10): 2866-2875. (in Chinese) | [19] | Lara A, Villalba R, Urrutia R.2008. A 400-year tree-ring record of the Puelo River summer-fall streamflow in the Valdivian rainforest eco-region, Chile. Climatic Change, 86(3-4): 331-356. | [20] | Li J F.1989. Dendroclimatology and Dendrohydrology Research in Xinjiang. Beijing: Meteorological Publishers, 1-192. (in Chinese) | [21] | Li S, Li X Y, He Q, et al.2006. Study on climate change in Altay prefecture since recent 40 years. Arid Zone Research, 23(4): 637-643. (in Chinese) | [22] | Li Z, Jiang F Q.2007. A study of abrupt climate change in Xinjiang region during 1961-2004. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 29(3): 351-359. (in Chinese) | [23] | Liang E Y, Liu X H, Yuan Y J, et al.2006. The 1920s drought recorded by tree rings and historical documents in the semi-arid and arid areas of northern China. Climatic Change, 79(3-4): 403-432. | [24] | Liu L C.1997. Genetic characteristics of soils under coniferous forest in north western part of Altai Mountains. Acta Pedologica Sinica, 34(3): 263-271. (in Chinese) | [25] | Liu Y, Sun J Y, Song H M, et al.2010. Tree-ring hydrologic reconstructions for the Heihe River watershed, western China since AD 1430. Water Research, 44(9): 2781-2792. | [26] | Liu Y, Zhang Y, Song H, et al.2014. Tree-ring reconstruction of seasonal mean minimum temperature at Mt. Yaoshan, China, since 1873 and its relevance to 20th-century warming. Climate of the Past, 10(2): 859-894. | [27] | Luo Z X. 2005. Introduction to Arid Climate Dynamics in Northwest China. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1-225. (in Chinese) | [28] | Maxwell R S, Hessl A E, Cook E R, et al.2011. A multispecies tree ring reconstruction of Potomac River streamflow (950-2001). Water Resources Research, 47(5): W05512. | [29] | Michaelsen J.1987. Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 26(11): 1589-1600. | [30] | Nagovitsyn Y A.1997. A nonlinear mathematical model for the solar cyclicity and prospects for reconstructing the solar activity in the past. Astronomy Letters, 23(6): 742-748. | [31] | Osborn T J, Briffa K R, Jones P D.1997. Adjusting variance for sample-size in tree-ring chronologies and other regional mean timeseries. Dendrochronologia, 15: 89-99. | [32] | Pederson N, Jacoby G, D’arrigo R D, et al.2001. Hydrometeorological reconstructions for northeastern Mongolia derived from tree rings: 1651-1995. Journal of Climate, 14(5): 872-881. | [33] | Pimentel D, Berger B, Filiberto D, et al.2004. Water resources: agricultural and environmental issues. BioScience, 54(10): 909-918. | [34] | Polacek D, Kofler W, Oberhuber W.2006. Radial growth of Pinus sylvestris growing on alluvial terraces is sensitive to water-level fluctuations. New Phytologist, 169(2): 299-308. | [35] | Shah S K, Bhattacharyya A, Chaudhary V.2014. Streamflow reconstruction of Eastern Himalaya River, Lachen ‘Chhu’, North Sikkim, based on tree-ring data of Larix griffithiana from Zemu Glacier basin. Dendrochronologia, 32(2): 97-106. | [36] | Shang H M, Wei W S, Yuan Y J, et al.2011. Early summer temperature history in northeastern Kazakhstan during the last 310 years recorded by tree rings. Journal of Mountain Science, 29(4): 402-408. (in Chinese) | [37] | Shi F C, Wang G A, Gao Z D, et al.1991. Recurrence probability of 11-year continuous low water period (1922~1932 A.D.) in the Yellow River. Advances in Water Science, 2(4): 258-263. (in Chinese) | [38] | Shi Y F, Shen Y P, Kang E S, et al.2007. Recent and future climate change in northwest China. Climatic Change, 80(3-4): 379-393. | [39] | Siegfried T, Bernauer T, Guiennet R, et al.2012. Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia? Climate Chang, 112(3-4): 881-899. | [40] | Speer J H. 2010. Fundamentals of Tree-ring Research. Tucson: The University of Arizona Press, 87-105. | [41] | Sun J Y, Liu Y, Wang Y C, et al.2013. Tree-ring based runoff reconstruction of the upper Fenhe River basin, North China, since 1799 AD. Quaternary International, 283: 117-124. | [42] | Wells N, Goddard S, Hayes M J.2004. A self-calibrating palmer drought severity index. Journal of Climate, 17(12): 2335-2351. | [43] | Wen K G, Shi Y G.2006. The Documents of Chinese Meteorological Disaster: Volume of Xinjiang. Beijing: Meteorological Publishers, 4-146. (in Chinese) | [44] | Wigley T M L, Briffa K R, Jones P D.1984. On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 23(2): 201-213. | [45] | Woodhouse C A.2001. A tree-ring reconstruction of streamflow for the Colorado Front Range. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 37(3): 561-569. | [46] | Woodhouse C A.2003. A 431-yr reconstruction of Western Colorado Snowpack from tree rings. Journal of Climate, 16(10): 1551-1561. | [47] | Yang B, Qin C, Shi F, et al.2011. Tree ring-based annual streamflow reconstruction for the Heihe River in arid northwestern China from AD 575 and its implications for water resource management. The Holocene, 22(7): 773-784. | [48] | Yao T D, Wang Y Q, Liu S Y, et al.2004. Recent glacial retreat in high Asia in China and its impact on water resource in Northwest China. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 47(12): 1065-1075. | [49] | Young G A.1994. Bootstrap: more than a stab in the dark? Statistical Science, 9(3): 382-415. | [50] | Yuan Y J, Shao X M, Wei W S, et al.2007. The potential to reconstruct Manasi River streamflow in the northern Tien Shan Mountains (NW China). Tree-Ring Research, 63(2): 81-93. | [51] | Yuan Y J, Zhang T W, Wei W S, et al.2013. Development of tree-ring maximum latewood density chronologies for the western Tien Shan Mountains, China: Influence of detrending method and climate response. Dendrochronologia, 31(3): 192-197. | [52] | Zhang R B, Shang H M, Yuan Y J, et al.2015a. Summer precipitation variation in the southern slope of the Altay Mountains recorded by tree-ring δ13C. Journal of Desert Research, 35(1): 106-112. (in Chinese) | [53] | Zhang T W, Yuan Y J, Hu Y C, et al.2015b. Early summer temperature changes in the southern Altai Mountains of Central Asia during the past 300 years. Quaternary International, 358: 68-76. |
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
|
Shared |
|
|
|
|
|
Discussed |
|
|
|
|