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Journal of Arid Land  2022, Vol. 14 Issue (4): 359-373    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-022-0092-y
Research article     
Impact of rainfed and irrigated agriculture systems on soil carbon stock under different climate scenarios in the semi-arid region of Brazil
André L CARVALHO1,*(), Renato A ARAÚJO-NETO1, Guilherme B LYRA1, Carlos E P CERRI2, Stoécio M F MAIA3
1Center for Agrarian Sciences, Federal University of Alagoas, Rio Largo 57072-900, Brazil
2Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, The University of São Paulo, Piracicaba 13418-900, Brazil
3Federal Institute of Alagoas, Marechal Deodoro 57160-000, Brazil
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Abstract  

Understanding the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) is of fundamental importance in land use and management, whether in the current researches or in future scenarios of agriculture systems considering climate change. In order to evaluate SOC stock of the three districts (Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts) in the semi-arid region of Brazil in rainfed and irrigated agriculture systems under different climate scenarios using the Century model, we obtained RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios derived from the Eta Regional Climate Model (Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) from the National Institute for Space Research, and then input the data of bulk density, pH, soil texture, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and rainfall into the soil and climate files of the Century model. The results of this study showed that the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model was effective in estimating air temperature in the future period. In rainfed agriculture system, SOC stock under the baseline scenario was lower than that under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, while in irrigated agriculture system, SOC stock in the almost all climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and models (Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) will increase by 2100. The results of this study will help producers in the semi-arid region of Brazil adopt specific agriculture systems aimed at mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.



Key wordssoil carbon stock      agriculture systems      climate scenarios      Century model      semi-arid region     
Received: 29 January 2021      Published: 30 April 2022
Corresponding Authors: André L CARVALHO     E-mail: del.andre2@hotmail.com
Cite this article:

André L CARVALHO, Renato A ARAÚJO-NETO, Guilherme B LYRA, Carlos E P CERRI, Stoécio M F MAIA. Impact of rainfed and irrigated agriculture systems on soil carbon stock under different climate scenarios in the semi-arid region of Brazil. Journal of Arid Land, 2022, 14(4): 359-373.

URL:

http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-022-0092-y     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2022/V14/I4/359

District Site Adopted management systems in differnet period
Native vegetation Cultivation Pasture Fallow
Delmiro Gouveia EqNV 1900-2014 - - -
EqCC15 1900-1999 2000-2003, 2005-2009, and 2011-2014 - 2004 and 2010
EqCC4 1900-2010 2011-2014 - -
Pariconha EpNV 1900-2014 - - -
EpPa10 1900-1973 1974-1975, 1978-1982, 1985-1989, 1992-1996, and 1999-2003 2005-2014 1976-1977, 1983-1984, 1990-1991, 1997-1998, and 2004
EpCC4 1900-2010 2011-2014 - -
Inhapi U1NV 1900-2014 - - -
U1CC30 1900-1985 1986-1990, 1992-1996, 1999-2003, 2006-2010, and 2012-2014 - 1991, 1997-1998, 2004-2005, and 2011
Table 1 Adopted land management systems in different period of Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts
District Site Soil texture (%) Bulk density (g/cm3) pH
Sand Silt Clay
Delmiro Gouveia EqNV 88.8±1.8 2.7±2.8 8.5±1.0 1.4±0.02 4.4±0.1
EqCC15 86.5±2.3 5.0±6.9 8.4±4.6 1.5±0.01 5.0±0.1
EqCC4 88.6±4.0 4.6±1.6 6.8±2.4 1.4±0.00 4.7±0.3
Pariconha EpNV 88.5±1.2 7.2±2.4 4.3±1.3 1.5±0.01 5.1±0.1
EpPa10 85.3±2.4 11.6±1.7 3.0±0.6 1.6±0.02 5.9±0.1
EpCC4 77.8±3.7 14.7±3.0 7.5±0.7 1.5±0.02 5.4±0.0
Inhapi U1NV 64.3±3.5 15.9±2.4 19.8±5.8 1.5±0.01 5.4±0.2
U1CC30 58.3±6.3 19.9±4.8 21.8±1.6 1.5±0.01 5.9±0.1
Table 2 Soil texture, bulk density, and pH in Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts
Month Eta-HadGEM2-ES
Delmiro Gouveia District Pariconha District Inhapi District
Tmin (°C) Tmax (°C) Tmin (°C) Tmax (°C) Tmin (°C) Tmax (°C)
Obs Sim Corr Obs Sim Corr Obs Sim Corr Obs Sim Corr Obs Sim Corr Obs Sim Corr
Jan 21.2 18.2 21.2 34.5 32.7 35.2 21.2 18.1 21.3 34.5 31.8 35.2 21.2 18.1 21.3 34.5 31.5 35.2
Feb 21.5 19.6 22.1 34.6 32.4 34.9 21.5 19.2 22.0 34.6 31.5 34.8 21.5 19.1 21.9 34.6 31.3 34.9
Mar 21.6 19.7 21.7 34.3 32.4 34.5 21.6 19.4 21.7 34.3 31.6 34.5 21.6 19.3 21.7 34.3 31.4 34.5
Apr 21.2 18.4 20.9 32.6 31.1 33.0 21.2 18.2 21.0 32.6 30.3 33.0 21.2 18.1 21.0 32.6 30.0 33.0
May 20.3 17.1 20.2 29.6 29.4 30.0 20.3 17.0 20.3 29.6 28.7 30.1 20.3 17.0 20.3 29.6 28.3 30.1
Jun 19.2 15.5 18.9 28.0 28.5 28.5 19.2 15.6 19.0 28.0 27.7 28.5 19.2 15.7 19.0 28.0 27.4 28.5
Jul 18.3 14.9 18.2 27.4 28.4 27.8 18.3 15.1 18.2 27.4 27.7 27.8 18.3 15.1 18.2 27.4 27.3 27.8
Aug 18.1 15.0 17.8 28.2 29.2 28.6 18.1 15.1 17.9 28.2 28.4 28.5 18.1 15.1 17.9 28.2 28.0 28.6
Sep 19.1 15.7 18.8 30.7 30.7 31.1 19.1 15.8 18.8 30.7 30.0 31.0 19.1 15.8 18.8 30.7 29.7 31.0
Oct 20.2 16.7 20.2 33.4 32.1 34.0 20.2 16.7 20.2 33.4 31.3 34.0 20.2 16.6 20.1 33.4 31.0 34.0
Nov 21.0 17.3 21.0 34.8 32.9 35.8 21.0 17.3 21.0 34.8 32.2 35.8 21.0 17.3 21.0 34.8 31.9 35.9
Dec 21.2 18.0 21.2 34.6 32.9 35.3 21.2 17.9 21.2 34.6 32.1 35.3 21.2 17.9 21.2 34.6 31.8 35.3
Month Eta-MIROC5
Delmiro Gouveia District Pariconha District Inhapi District
Tmin (°C) Tmax (°C) Tmin (°C) Tmax (°C) Tmin (°C) Tmax (°C)
Obs Sim Corr Obs Sim Corr Obs Sim Corr Obs Sim Corr Obs Sim Corr Obs Sim Corr
Jan 21.2 17.6 20.7 34.5 29.7 32.2 21.2 17.3 20.5 34.5 28.8 32.2 21.2 17.2 20.4 34.5 28.4 32.0
Feb 21.5 18.5 21.1 34.6 29.2 31.7 21.5 18.0 20.8 34.6 28.4 31.7 21.5 17.9 20.7 34.6 28.0 31.6
Mar 21.6 18.9 20.9 34.3 28.8 30.9 21.6 18.3 20.7 34.3 28.0 30.9 21.6 18.2 20.6 34.3 27.6 30.8
Apr 21.2 18.2 20.7 32.6 27.4 29.3 21.2 17.7 20.4 32.6 26.5 29.1 21.2 17.5 20.4 32.6 26.0 29.0
May 20.3 17.0 20.2 29.6 26.4 27.0 20.3 16.7 20.0 29.6 25.6 27.0 20.3 16.6 20.0 29.6 25.1 26.8
Jun 19.2 16.4 19.7 28.0 26.2 26.2 19.2 16.2 19.5 28.0 25.5 26.2 19.2 16.1 19.5 28.0 25.0 26.1
Jul 18.3 15.4 18.6 27.4 26.6 26.0 18.3 15.3 18.4 27.4 25.9 26.0 18.3 15.2 18.3 27.4 25.5 25.9
Aug 18.1 14.6 17.5 28.2 27.2 26.5 18.1 14.6 17.3 28.2 26.4 26.6 18.1 14.5 17.3 28.2 26.0 26.5
Sep 19.1 14.8 17.9 30.7 28.9 29.3 19.1 14.7 17.8 30.7 28.3 29.3 19.1 14.6 17.7 30.7 27.9 29.3
Oct 20.2 15.3 18.8 33.4 30.7 32.6 20.2 15.2 18.7 33.4 30.0 32.6 20.2 15.1 18.6 33.4 29.6 32.6
Nov 21.0 16.6 20.2 34.8 31.3 34.2 21.0 16.3 20.0 34.8 30.6 34.3 21.0 16.3 20.0 34.8 30.3 34.3
Dec 21.2 17.4 20.6 34.6 30.8 33.2 21.2 17.1 20.4 34.6 30.0 33.2 21.2 17.0 20.3 34.6 29.6 33.1
Table 3 Maximum and minimum air temperature in different month from 1960 to 2005 using the Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5 models in Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts
Climate scenario Eta-HadGEM2-ES model
Delmiro Gouveia District Pariconha District Inhapi District
T2006 T2100 Difference T2006 T2100 Difference T2006 T2100 Difference
RCP4.5 26.5 28.3 1.8 26.5 28.3 1.8 26.6 28.3 1.7
RCP8.5 26.5 31.2 4.8 26.5 31.2 4.7 26.5 31.2 4.7
Climate scenario Eta-MIROC5 model
Delmiro Gouveia District Pariconha District Inhapi District
T2006 T2100 Difference T2006 T2100 Difference T2006 T2100 Difference
RCP4.5 26.0 27.5 1.5 26.0 27.5 1.5 26.0 27.5 1.5
RCP8.5 25.7 29.0 3.2 25.8 29.1 3.3 25.8 29.1 3.3
Table 4 Mean air temperature in 2006 and 2100 and air temperature difference between the two years under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios using the Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5 models in Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts
Fig. 1 Observed mean monthly rainfall, simulated mean monthly rainfall, and simulated mean monthly rainfall after correction using Eta-HadGEM2-ES (a, b, and c) and Eta-MIROC5 (d, e, and f) models in Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts
Fig. 2 Simulated annual rainfall under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios using Eta-HadGEM2-ES (a, b, and c) and Eta-MIROC5 (d, e, and f) models during 2006-2100 in Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts. Mean rainfall is the average of simulated annual rainfall under baseline scenario.
Fig. 3 SOC stock in rainfed agriculture system under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios using the Eta-HadGEM2-ES (a, c, e, g, and i) and Eta-MIROC5 (b, d, f, h, and j) models in Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts
Fig. 4 SOC stock in irrigated agriculture system under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios using the Eta-HadGEM2-ES (a, c, e, g, and i) and Eta-MIROC5 (b, d, f, h, and j) models in Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts
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