Impact of rainfed and irrigated agriculture systems on soil carbon stock under different climate scenarios in the semi-arid region of Brazil

doi:10.1007/s40333-022-0092-y

Journal of Arid Land

2022, Vol. 14

Issue (4): 359-373 DOI: 10.1007/s40333-022-0092-y CSTR: 32276.14.s40333-022-0092-y

Research article

Impact of rainfed and irrigated agriculture systems on soil carbon stock under different climate scenarios in the semi-arid region of Brazil

André L CARVALHO¹^,^*(

), Renato A ARAÚJO-NETO¹, Guilherme B LYRA¹, Carlos E P CERRI², Stoécio M F MAIA³

¹Center for Agrarian Sciences, Federal University of Alagoas, Rio Largo 57072-900, Brazil
²Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, The University of São Paulo, Piracicaba 13418-900, Brazil
³Federal Institute of Alagoas, Marechal Deodoro 57160-000, Brazil

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Abstract

Understanding the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) is of fundamental importance in land use and management, whether in the current researches or in future scenarios of agriculture systems considering climate change. In order to evaluate SOC stock of the three districts (Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts) in the semi-arid region of Brazil in rainfed and irrigated agriculture systems under different climate scenarios using the Century model, we obtained RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios derived from the Eta Regional Climate Model (Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) from the National Institute for Space Research, and then input the data of bulk density, pH, soil texture, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and rainfall into the soil and climate files of the Century model. The results of this study showed that the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model was effective in estimating air temperature in the future period. In rainfed agriculture system, SOC stock under the baseline scenario was lower than that under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, while in irrigated agriculture system, SOC stock in the almost all climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and models (Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) will increase by 2100. The results of this study will help producers in the semi-arid region of Brazil adopt specific agriculture systems aimed at mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.

Key words： soil carbon stock agriculture systems climate scenarios Century model semi-arid region

Received: 29 January 2021 Published: 30 April 2022

Corresponding Authors: *André L CARVALHO (E-mail: del.andre2@hotmail.com)

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	André L CARVALHO
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	Stoécio M F MAIA

Cite this article:

André L CARVALHO, Renato A ARAÚJO-NETO, Guilherme B LYRA, Carlos E P CERRI, Stoécio M F MAIA. Impact of rainfed and irrigated agriculture systems on soil carbon stock under different climate scenarios in the semi-arid region of Brazil. Journal of Arid Land, 2022, 14(4): 359-373.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-022-0092-y OR http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2022/V14/I4/359

Table 1 Adopted land management systems in different period of Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts

Table 2 Soil texture, bulk density, and pH in Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts

Month	Eta-HadGEM2-ES
	Delmiro Gouveia District						Pariconha District						Inhapi District
	Tmin (°C)			Tmax (°C)			Tmin (°C)			Tmax (°C)			Tmin (°C)			Tmax (°C)
	Obs	Sim	Corr	Obs	Sim	Corr	Obs	Sim	Corr	Obs	Sim	Corr	Obs	Sim	Corr	Obs	Sim	Corr
Jan	21.2	18.2	21.2	34.5	32.7	35.2	21.2	18.1	21.3	34.5	31.8	35.2	21.2	18.1	21.3	34.5	31.5	35.2
Feb	21.5	19.6	22.1	34.6	32.4	34.9	21.5	19.2	22.0	34.6	31.5	34.8	21.5	19.1	21.9	34.6	31.3	34.9
Mar	21.6	19.7	21.7	34.3	32.4	34.5	21.6	19.4	21.7	34.3	31.6	34.5	21.6	19.3	21.7	34.3	31.4	34.5
Apr	21.2	18.4	20.9	32.6	31.1	33.0	21.2	18.2	21.0	32.6	30.3	33.0	21.2	18.1	21.0	32.6	30.0	33.0
May	20.3	17.1	20.2	29.6	29.4	30.0	20.3	17.0	20.3	29.6	28.7	30.1	20.3	17.0	20.3	29.6	28.3	30.1
Jun	19.2	15.5	18.9	28.0	28.5	28.5	19.2	15.6	19.0	28.0	27.7	28.5	19.2	15.7	19.0	28.0	27.4	28.5
Jul	18.3	14.9	18.2	27.4	28.4	27.8	18.3	15.1	18.2	27.4	27.7	27.8	18.3	15.1	18.2	27.4	27.3	27.8
Aug	18.1	15.0	17.8	28.2	29.2	28.6	18.1	15.1	17.9	28.2	28.4	28.5	18.1	15.1	17.9	28.2	28.0	28.6
Sep	19.1	15.7	18.8	30.7	30.7	31.1	19.1	15.8	18.8	30.7	30.0	31.0	19.1	15.8	18.8	30.7	29.7	31.0
Oct	20.2	16.7	20.2	33.4	32.1	34.0	20.2	16.7	20.2	33.4	31.3	34.0	20.2	16.6	20.1	33.4	31.0	34.0
Nov	21.0	17.3	21.0	34.8	32.9	35.8	21.0	17.3	21.0	34.8	32.2	35.8	21.0	17.3	21.0	34.8	31.9	35.9
Dec	21.2	18.0	21.2	34.6	32.9	35.3	21.2	17.9	21.2	34.6	32.1	35.3	21.2	17.9	21.2	34.6	31.8	35.3
Month	Eta-MIROC5
	Delmiro Gouveia District						Pariconha District						Inhapi District
	Tmin (°C)			Tmax (°C)			Tmin (°C)			Tmax (°C)			Tmin (°C)			Tmax (°C)
	Obs	Sim	Corr	Obs	Sim	Corr	Obs	Sim	Corr	Obs	Sim	Corr	Obs	Sim	Corr	Obs	Sim	Corr
Jan	21.2	17.6	20.7	34.5	29.7	32.2	21.2	17.3	20.5	34.5	28.8	32.2	21.2	17.2	20.4	34.5	28.4	32.0
Feb	21.5	18.5	21.1	34.6	29.2	31.7	21.5	18.0	20.8	34.6	28.4	31.7	21.5	17.9	20.7	34.6	28.0	31.6
Mar	21.6	18.9	20.9	34.3	28.8	30.9	21.6	18.3	20.7	34.3	28.0	30.9	21.6	18.2	20.6	34.3	27.6	30.8
Apr	21.2	18.2	20.7	32.6	27.4	29.3	21.2	17.7	20.4	32.6	26.5	29.1	21.2	17.5	20.4	32.6	26.0	29.0
May	20.3	17.0	20.2	29.6	26.4	27.0	20.3	16.7	20.0	29.6	25.6	27.0	20.3	16.6	20.0	29.6	25.1	26.8
Jun	19.2	16.4	19.7	28.0	26.2	26.2	19.2	16.2	19.5	28.0	25.5	26.2	19.2	16.1	19.5	28.0	25.0	26.1
Jul	18.3	15.4	18.6	27.4	26.6	26.0	18.3	15.3	18.4	27.4	25.9	26.0	18.3	15.2	18.3	27.4	25.5	25.9
Aug	18.1	14.6	17.5	28.2	27.2	26.5	18.1	14.6	17.3	28.2	26.4	26.6	18.1	14.5	17.3	28.2	26.0	26.5
Sep	19.1	14.8	17.9	30.7	28.9	29.3	19.1	14.7	17.8	30.7	28.3	29.3	19.1	14.6	17.7	30.7	27.9	29.3
Oct	20.2	15.3	18.8	33.4	30.7	32.6	20.2	15.2	18.7	33.4	30.0	32.6	20.2	15.1	18.6	33.4	29.6	32.6
Nov	21.0	16.6	20.2	34.8	31.3	34.2	21.0	16.3	20.0	34.8	30.6	34.3	21.0	16.3	20.0	34.8	30.3	34.3
Dec	21.2	17.4	20.6	34.6	30.8	33.2	21.2	17.1	20.4	34.6	30.0	33.2	21.2	17.0	20.3	34.6	29.6	33.1

Table 3 Maximum and minimum air temperature in different month from 1960 to 2005 using the Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5 models in Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts

Table 4 Mean air temperature in 2006 and 2100 and air temperature difference between the two years under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios using the Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5 models in Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts

Fig. 1 Observed mean monthly rainfall, simulated mean monthly rainfall, and simulated mean monthly rainfall after correction using Eta-HadGEM2-ES (a, b, and c) and Eta-MIROC5 (d, e, and f) models in Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts

Fig. 2 Simulated annual rainfall under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios using Eta-HadGEM2-ES (a, b, and c) and Eta-MIROC5 (d, e, and f) models during 2006-2100 in Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts. Mean rainfall is the average of simulated annual rainfall under baseline scenario.

Fig. 3 SOC stock in rainfed agriculture system under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios using the Eta-HadGEM2-ES (a, c, e, g, and i) and Eta-MIROC5 (b, d, f, h, and j) models in Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts

Fig. 4 SOC stock in irrigated agriculture system under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios using the Eta-HadGEM2-ES (a, c, e, g, and i) and Eta-MIROC5 (b, d, f, h, and j) models in Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts


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