Brief Communication |
|
|
|
|
A framework of numerical simulation on moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods |
ZHANG Xiujuan1,2*, LIU Shiyin1 |
1 State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;
2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
|
|
Abstract Glacial outburst floods (GLOFs) in alpine regions tend to be relatively complicated, multi-stage catastrophes, capable of causing significant geomorphologic changes in channel surroundings and posing severe threats to infrastructure and the safety and livelihoods of human communities. GLOF disasters have been observed and potential hazards can be foreseen due to the newly formed glacial lakes or the expansion of existing ones in the Poiqu River Basin in Tibet, China. Here we presented a synthesis of GLOF-related studies including trig-gering mechanism(s), dam breach modeling, and flood routing simulation that have been employed to re-construct or forecast GLOF hydrographs. We provided a framework for probability-based GLOFs simulation and hazard mapping in the Poiqu River Basin according to available knowledge. We also discussed the un-certainties and challenges in the model chains, which may form the basis for further research
|
Received: 22 January 2015
Published: 10 December 2015
|
Fund: The National Key Technology Research and Development Pro-gram and the Key Basic Research Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2012BAC19B07, 2013FY111400) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41190084) |
Corresponding Authors:
|
|
|
Alho P, Roberts M J, Käyhkö J. 2007. Estimating the inundation area of a massive, hypothetical jökulhlaup from northwest Vatnajökull, Iceland. Natural Hazards, 41(1): 21–42. Alho P, Aaltonen J. 2008. Comparing a 1D hydraulic model with a 2D hydraulic model for the simulation of extreme glacial out-burst floods. Hydrological Processes, 22(10): 1537–1547. Alho P, Baker V R, Smith L N. 2010. Paleohydraulic reconstruc-tion of the largest Glacial Lake Missoula draining (s). Quater-nary Science Reviews, 29(23–24): 3067–3078. Allen S K, Schneider D, Owens I F. 2009. First approaches to-wards modelling glacial hazards in the Mount Cook region of New Zealand’s Southern Alps. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9(2): 481–499. Aronica G T, Candela A, Fabio P, et al. 2012. Estimation of flood inundation probabilities using global hazard indexes based on hydrodynamic variables. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 42–44: 119–129. Bajracharya B, Shrestha A B, Rajbhandari L. 2007. Glacial lake outburst floods in the Sagarmatha region: Hazard assessment using GIS and hydrodynamic modeling. Mountain Research and Development, 27(4): 336–344. Balmforth N J, von Hardenberg J, Provenzale A, et al. 2008. Dam breaking by wave-induced erosional incision. Journal of Ge-ophysical Research, 113(F1): F01020. Blown I G, Church M. 1985. Catastrophic lake drainage within the Homathko River basin, British Columbia. Canadian Geotech-nical Journal, 22(4): 551–563. Byers A C, McKinney D C, Somos-Valenzuela M, et al. 2013. Glacial lakes of the Hinku and Hongu valleys, Makalu Barun National Park and Buffer Zone, Nepal. Natural Hazards, 69(1): 115–139. Capart H. 2013. Analytical solutions for gradual dam breaching and downstream river flooding. Water Resources Research, 49(4): 1968–1987. Carrivick J L. 2006. Application of 2D hydrodynamic modelling to high-magnitude outburst floods: An example from Kverk-fjöll, Iceland. Journal of Hydrology, 321(1–4): 187–199. Casas A, Benito G, Thorndycraft V R, et al. 2006. The topo-graphic data source of digital terrain models as a key element in the accuracy of hydraulic flood modelling. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 31(4): 444–456. Cenderelli D A, Wohl E E. 2001. Peak discharge estimates of glacial-lake outburst floods and “normal” climatic floods in the Mount Everest region, Nepal. Geomorphology, 40(1–2): 57–90. Cenderelli D A, Wohl E E. 2003. Flow hydraulics and geomorphic effects of glacial-lake outburst floods in the Mount Everest region, Nepal. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 28(4): 385–407. Clague J J, Evans S G. 2000. A review of catastrophic drainage of moraine-dammed lakes in British Columbia. Quaternary Sci-ence Reviews, 19(17–18): 1763–1783. Cook A, Merwade V. 2009. Effect of topographic data, geometric configuration and modeling approach on flood inundation mapping. Journal of Hydrology, 377(1–2): 131–142. Costa J E. 1983. Paleohydraulic reconstruction of flash-flood peaks from boulder deposits in the Colorado Front Range. The Geological Society of America Bulletin, 94(8): 986–1004. Evans S F. 1986. The maximum discharge of outburst floods caused by the breaching of man-made and natural dams. Ca-nadian Geotechnical Journal, 23(3): 385–387. Fell R, Wan C F, Cyganiewicz J, et al. 2003. Time for development of internal erosion and piping in embankment dams. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 129(4): 307–314. Fread D L. 1977. The development and testing of a dam-break flood forecasting model. In: Proceedings of the Dam-Break Flood Routing Model Workshop. Washington D.C.: Water Re-sources Council, 164–197. Froehlich D C. 1995. Peak outflow from breached embankment dam. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 121(1): 90–97. Goodell C R, Brunner G W. 2008. A dam breach model of epic proportions: Simulating the Glacial Lake Missoula floods. In: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008: Ahupua’A. Rerston, VA: ASCE, 1–11. Hagen V K. 1982. Re-evaluation of design floods and dam safety. In: Proceedings of the 14th Congress of International Com-mission on Large Dams, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Hanson G J, Cook K R. 2004. Apparatus, test procedures, and analytical methods to measure soil erodibility in situ. Applied Engineering in Agriculture, 20(4): 455–462. Hubbard B, Heald A, Reynolds J M, et al. 2005. Impact of a rock avalanche on a moraine-dammed proglacial lake: Laguna Sa-funa Alta, Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 30(10): 1251–1264. Huggel C, Kääb A, Haeberli W, et al. 2002. Remote sensing based assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts: A case study in the Swiss Alps. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 39(2): 316–330. Huggel C, Kääb A, Haeberli W, et al. 2003. Regional-scale GIS-models for assessment of hazards from glacier lake out-bursts: Evaluation and application in the Swiss Alps. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 3(6): 647–662. Huggel C, Kääb A, Salzmann N. 2004. GIS-based modeling of glacial hazards and their interactions using Landsat-TM and Ikonos imagery. Norsk Geografisk Tidsskrift-Norwegian Journal of Geography, 58(2): 61–73. Jain S K, Lohani A K, Singh R D, et al. 2012. Glacial lakes and glacial lake outburst flood in a Himalayan basin using remote sensing and GIS. Natural Hazards, 62(3): 887–899. Kershaw J A, Clague J J, Evans S G. 2005. Geomorphic and sed-imentological signature of a two-phase outburst flood from moraine-dammed Queen Bess Lake, British Columbia, Canada. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 30(1): 1–25. MacDonald T C, Langridge-Monopolis J. 1984. Breaching cha-rateristics of dam failures. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 110(5): 567–586. Meon G, Schwarz W. 1993. Estimation of Glacier Lake Outburst Flood and its impact on a hydro project in Nepal. In: Young G J. Proceedings of the International Symposium on Snow and Glacier Hydrology, IAHS Publication No. 218. Wallingford, England: IAHS, 331–340. Mergili M, Schneider D, Worni R, et al. 2011. Glacial lake out-burst floods in the Pamir of Tajikistan: Challenges in predic-tion and modelling. In: Proceeding of the 5th International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards “Mitigation, Mechanics, Prediction and Assessment”. Italy: University of Padova, 6: 14–17. Mohamed M A A, Samuels P G, Morris M W, et al. 2002. Im-proving the accuracy of prediction of breach formation through embankment dams and flood embankments. In: River Flow 2002: 1st International Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics. Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.Omer C R, Nelson E J, Zundel A K. 2003. Impact of varied data resolution on hydraulic modeling and floodplain delineation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 39(2): 467–475. Osti R, Egashira S. 2009. Hydrodynamic characteristics of the Tam Pokhari Glacial Lake outburst flood in the Mt. Everest region, Nepal. Hydrological Processes, 23(20): 2943–2955. Osti R, Bhattarai T N, Miyake K. 2011. Causes of catastrophic failure of Tam Pokhari moraine dam in the Mt. Everest region. Natural Hazards, 58(3): 1209–1223. Osti R, Egashira S, Adikari Y. 2013. Prediction and assessment of multiple glacial lake outburst floods scenario in Pho Chu River basin, Bhutan. Hydrological Processes, 27(2): 262–274. Patro S, Chatterjee C, Singh R, et al. 2009. Hydrodynamic model-ling of a large flood-prone river system in India with limited data. Hydrological Processes, 23(19): 2774–2791. Petrakov D A, Tutubalina O V, Aleinikov A A, et al. 2012. Moni-toring of Bashkara Glacier lakes (Central Caucasus, Russia) and modelling of their potential outburst. Natural Hazards, 61(3): 1293–1316. Pierce M W, Thornton C I, Abt S R. 2010. Predicting peak outflow from breached embankment dams. Journal of Hydrologic En-gineering, 15(5): 338–349. Pitman E B, Patra A K, Kumar D, et al. 2013. Two phase simula-tions of glacier lake outburst flows. Journal of Computational Science, 4(1–2): 71–79. Pramanik N, Panda R K, Sen D. 2010. One dimensional hydro-dynamic modeling of river flow using DEM extracted river cross-sections. Water Resources Management, 24(5): 835–852. Reynolds J M. 1992. The identification and mitigation of glaci-er-related hazards: Examples from the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. In: McCall G J H, Laming D J C, Scott S C. Geohazards. Neth-erlands: Springer, 143–157. Reynolds International Ltd. 2014. Development of glacial hazard and risk minimisation protocols in rural environments: guide-lines for the management of glacial hazards and risks. In: Reynolds Geo-Sciences Ltd. Project No. R7816. Mold, Flint-shire, UK. Richardson S D, Reynolds J M. 2000. An overview of glacial hazards in the Himalayas. Quaternary International, 65–66: 31–47. Riggs H C. 1976. A simplified slope-area method for estimating flood discharges in natural channels. Journal of Research US Geological Survey, 4: 285–291. Sanders B F. 2007. Evaluation of on-line DEMs for flood inun-dation modeling. Advances in Water Resources, 30(8): 1831–1843. Shrestha A B, Eriksson M, Mool P, et al. 2010. Glacial lake out-burst flood risk assessment of Sun Koshi Basin, Nepal. Geo-matics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 1(2): 157–169. Somos-Valenzuela M, McKinney D C. 2011. Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) from Palcacocha Lake, Peru. The University of Texas at Austin: Center for Research in Water Resources.Tarboton D G. 1997. A new method for the determination of flow directions and upslope areas in grid digital elevation models. Water Resources Research, 33(2): 309–319. Tie Y B, Tang C. 2009. Progress in glacier lake outburst assess-ment system. Advances in Water Science, 20(3): 448–452. (in Chinese)US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). 2010. HEC-RAS River Analysis System: Applications Guide (Version 4.1). Davis, CA: Hydrologic Engineering Center, 790. Vaughan D G, Comiso J C, Allison I, et al. 2013. Observations: Cryosphere. In: Stocker T F, Qin D, Plattner G K, et al. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Volz C, Rousselot P, Vetsch D, et al. 2010. Numerical modeling of dam breaching processes due to overtopping flow. In: Pro-ceedings of 8th ICOLD European Club Symposium. Inns-bruck, 691–696. Walder J S, O’Connor J E. 1997. Methods for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by failure of natural and con-structed earthen dams. Water Resources Research, 33(10): 2337–2348. Wang W C, Yao T D, Yang W, et al. 2012a. Methods for assessing regional glacial lake variation and hazard in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau: A case study from the Boshula mountain range, China. Environmental Earth Sciences, 67(5): 1441–1450. Wang W C, Yang X X, Yao T D. 2012b. Evaluation of ASTER GDEM and SRTM and their suitability in hydraulic modelling of a glacial lake outburst flood in southeast Tibet. Hydrological Processes, 26(2): 213–225. Wang X. 2008. Methods and application for the hazard assess-ment of moraine dammed lake outburst floods in the Himala-yas, China. PhD Dissertation. Beijing: Chinese Academy of Sciences. (in Chinese)Westoby M J, Glasser N F, Brasington J, et al. 2014a. Modelling outburst floods from moraine-dammed glacial lakes. Earth-Science Reviews, 134: 137–159. Westoby M J, Glasser N F, Hambrey M J, et al. 2014b. Recon-structing historic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods through nu-merical modelling and geomorphological assessment: Extreme events in the Himalaya. Earth Surface Processes and Land-forms, 39(12): 1675–1692. Westoby M J, Brasington J, Glasser N F, et al. 2014c. Numerical modelling of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods using physically based dam-breach models. Earth Surface Dynamics Discus-sions, 2(1): 477–533. Westoby M J, Brasington J, Glasser N F, et al. 2014d. ‘Struc-ture-from-Motion’ photogrammetry: A low-cost, effective tool for geoscience applications. Geomorphology, 179: 300–314. Westoby M J, Brasington J, Glasser N F, et al. 2015. Numerical modelling of glacial lake outburst floods using physically based dam-breach models. Earth Surface Dynamics, 3(1): 171–199. Williams G P. 1978. Bank-full discharge of rivers. Water Re-sources Research, 14(6): 1141–1154. Worni R, Stoffel M, Huggel C, et al. 2012. Analysis and dynamic modeling of a moraine failure and glacier lake outburst flood at Ventisquero Negro, Patagonian Andes (Argentina). Journal of Hydrology, 444–445: 134–145. Xiang Y, Gao Y, Yao T D. 2014. Glacier change in the Poiqu Riv-er basin inferred from Landsat data from 1975 to 2010. Qua-ternary International, 349: 392–401. Xu D M. 1988. Characteristics of debris flow caused by outburst of glacial lake in Boqu River, Xizang, China, 1981. GeoJournal, 17(4): 569–580. |
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
|
Shared |
|
|
|
|
|
Discussed |
|
|
|
|