| Research article |
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| Spatial trends of extreme temperature events and climate change indicators in climate zones of Jordan |
Abdelaziz Q BASHABSHEH1,*( ), Kamel K ALZBOON1, Zeyad ALSHBOUL2 |
1Department of Environmental Engineering, Al-Huson University College, Al-Balqa Applied University, Irbid 21510, Jordan 2Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Ajloun National University, Ajloun 26810, Jordan |
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Abstract Extreme temperature events have intensified across Jordan over the past 40 a, increasing risks to agriculture, water availability, urban infrastructure, and public health. The purpose of this study is to assess the long-term spatial trends and regime shifts in extreme temperature indicators across Jordan's climate zones to explore climate adaptation strategies. This study presents a high-resolution and spatially explicit assessment of thermal extremes using daily data from 1982 to 2024 across 45 grid-based study points in Jordan. Thirteen temperature indices, including percentile-based thresholds, duration metrics, and absolute extremes, were computed using RClimDex and analyzed across four Köppen climate zones: hot desert (BWh), hot semi-arid (BSh), cold desert (BWk), and Mediterranean (Csa) climates. The analysis confirmed a statistically significant warming trend: annual mean maximum temperatures increased by 2.198°C, while annual mean minimum temperatures rose by 2.035°C. Cold extremes have sharply declined, with cold days (TX10p) decreasing by 70.0%-80.0%, and the cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) dropping from 12.6 to 4.0 d/a, particularly in the BWk zone. Heat indices intensified across all zones, with warm days (TX90p) increasing by over 300.0% in BWh, warm nights (TN90p) rising by 38.1%, and the warm spell duration indicator (WSDI) extending fourfold, indicating prolonged exposure to heatwaves. Mean value of maximum temperature (TXx) reached 45.600°C in most arid areas, while minimum temperature (TNx) exceeded 31.600°C, highlighting increased nocturnal heat stress. Change-point analysis indicated that 1998 was a pivotal year, marking a structural transition in both cold and warm temperature indices. Subsequent intensifications after 2010 in TN90p, TNx, and mean of daily maximum temperature (Tmaxmean) reflected an ongoing trend toward sustained thermal extremes. In addition to time-series trends, the study employed network-based correlation analysis to explore the coherence among climate indices. Strong positive correlations were observed among TXx, TX90p, and mean of daily minimum temperature (Tminmean) (r≥0.94), as well as among TN90p, Tminmean, and TNx (r≥0.87), indicating a tightly clustered heat subsystem. Duration metrics like the WSDI showed a close alignment with percentile extremes (between WSDI and TX90p; r=0.88), suggesting integrated heatwave behavior. In contrast, cold indices (TX10p, TN90p, frost days, and CSDI) exhibited weak or negative correlations and displayed peripheral positioning in the climate network, indicating their limited role under a warming regime. Absolute extremes showed weak internal linkages, suggesting episodic rather than systemic response characteristics. This structural realignment indicated a shift from a previously balanced thermal profile to a heat-dominated climate system. Regional variations revealed that BWh and BSh were experiencing the steepest warming, while Csa was transitioning more slowly but was showing signs of reduced winter cooling and increased irrigation demands. The findings establish a robust climate baseline for Jordan and offer actionable insights for climate adaptation planning. Recommended measures include precision irrigation, the development of heat-resilient crops, improvements to urban cooling infrastructure, and early warning systems for thermal extremes. By integrating spatial climate zoning, regime shift analysis, and inter-index correlation structures, this study provides a replicable framework for monitoring climatic transformations and informing resilience strategies in arid and semi-arid areas.
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Received: 03 June 2025
Published: 30 November 2025
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Corresponding Authors:
*Abdelaziz Q BASHABSHEH (E-mail: abdelazizbashabsheh@gmail.com)
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