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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2025, Vol. 17 Issue (9): 1189-1214    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-025-0056-0     CSTR: 32276.14.JAL.02500560
Research article     
Spatio-temporal dynamics of desertification in China from 1970 to 2019: A meta-analysis
XIU Xiaomin1,2, WU Bo1,2,*(), CHEN Qian3, LI Yiran4, PANG Yingjun1,2, JIA Xiaohong1,2, ZHU Jinlei1, LU Qi1,5
1Institute of Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
2Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Desert Ecosystem and Global Change, Beijing 100091, China
3Key Laboratory for Information System of Mountainous Areas and Protection of Ecological Environment of Guizhou Province, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang 550001, China
4College of Soil and Water Conservation, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China
5Institute of Great Green Wall, Beijing 100091, China
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Abstract  

Desertification is a global crucial ecological and environmental issue, and China is among the countries most seriously affected by desertification. In recent decades, numerous independent studies on desertification dynamics have been carried out using remote sensing technology, but there has been a lack of systematic research on desertification trends in China. This study employed the meta-analysis to integrate the findings of 140 published research cases and examined the dynamics of desertification in the eight major deserts, four major sandy lands, and their surrounding areas in China from 1970 to 2019, with a comparative analysis of differences between the eastern (including the Mu Us Sandy Land, the Otindag Sandy Land, the Hulunbuir Sandy Land, the Horqin Sandy Land, and the Hobq Desert) and western (including the Taklimakan Desert, the Gurbantunggut Desert, the Kumtagh Desert, the Ulan Buh Desert, the Qaidam Basin Desert, the Badain Jaran Desert, and the Tengger Desert) regions. The results revealed that from 1970 to 2019, desertification first expanded and then reversed in the whole region. Specifically, desertification expanded from 1980 to 1999 and reversed after 2000. The desertification trend exhibited distinct spatio-temporal variations between the eastern and western regions. From 1970 to 2019, the western region experienced relatively minor changes in desertified land area compared to the eastern region. In the context of global climate change, beneficial climatic conditions and ecological construction projects played a crucial role in reversing desertification. These findings provide valuable insights for understanding the development patterns of desertification in the most representative deserts and sandy lands in China and formulating effective desertification control strategies.

Key words： desertification dynamics      sandy land      desert      climate change      human activities      meta-analysis     
Received: 08 April 2025      Published: 30 September 2025
Corresponding Authors: *WU Bo (E-mail: wubo@caf.ac.cn)
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XIU Xiaomin
WU Bo
CHEN Qian
LI Yiran
PANG Yingjun
JIA Xiaohong
ZHU Jinlei
LU Qi
Cite this article:

XIU Xiaomin, WU Bo, CHEN Qian, LI Yiran, PANG Yingjun, JIA Xiaohong, ZHU Jinlei, LU Qi. Spatio-temporal dynamics of desertification in China from 1970 to 2019: A meta-analysis. Journal of Arid Land, 2025, 17(9): 1189-1214.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-025-0056-0     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2025/V17/I9/1189

Fig. 1 Spatial distribution schematic of major Chinese deserts and sandy lands. The blue circular markers denote representative locations of deserts and sandy lands, rather than their accurate boundaries. The elevation data were sourced from Earth TOPOgraphy of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/etopo-global-relief-model).
Fig. 2 Flowchart of Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) used in this study. n, the number of research cases (articles).
Fig. 3 Number of articles related with the eight deserts and four sandy lands published from 1987 to 2025 (a), number of articles applied remote sensing data for desertification monitoring and assessment (b), and types of desertification evaluation indicators of articles and the number of articles (c) in the database. SPOT, Systeme Probatoire d'Observation de la Terre; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; MODIS, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer; CBERS, China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite; ASTER, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer.
Fig. 4 Development trends of desertification in the selected 90 research cases using the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test. Z is the standardized statistic parameter. Note that of the 140 research cases examined, 90 cases met the criterion of having ≥3 monitoring periods and were subsequently analyzed with the MK trend test.
Research case Z Significance level Abrupt year
(MK mutation test)		 Abrupt year (Pettitt's test) Time frame
Bai and Yan (2016) -1.85 P<0.100 2008 2007 2002-2012
Duan et al. (2019) -3.38 P<0.001 2008 2008 2000-2015
Gong (2014) -2.44 P<0.010 2007 2004 2000-2012
Han et al. (2019) -2.10 P<0.050 2010 2000 1990-2017
Han (2019) -2.10 P<0.050 2010 2000 1990-2017
Han (2023) -3.42 P<0.001 2004 2008 2000-2021
Han et al. (2025) -3.42 P<0.001 2004 2008 2000-2021
Ji et al. (2023) -1.70 P<0.100 2002 2002 1991-2021
Jiang et al. (2024) -1.88 P<0.100 2005 2005 2000-2023
Liu (2016) -1.71 P<0.100 2002 2002 1990-2014
Liu et al. (2025) -2.21 P<0.050 2015 2015 2000-2022
Wang et al. (2016a) -2.52 P<0.010 2002 2002 2000-2013
Wang et al. (2017a) -2.52 P<0.010 2002 2002 2000-2013
Wang et al. (2017b) -2.97 P<0.001 2008 2009 2000-2014
Wang (2017) -2.97 P<0.001 2008 2009 2000-2014
Wang et al. (2020) -1.70 P<0.100 2005 2005 2000-2015
Wu et al. (2024) -2.60 P<0.010 2007 2002 1987-2022
Zhang et al. (2008) 1.70 P<0.100 1987 1987 1960-2006
Zhang et al. (2009) -1.70 P<0.100 1985 1985 1975-2005
Zhou et al. (2015) -2.20 P<0.050 1995 1985 1975-2008
Table 1 Analysis of desertification development trends in 20 research cases with significant trends
Fig. 5 Changes in the area percentage of desertified land in the western (a) and eastern (b) regions from 1970 to 2019. The upper and lower limits are the maximum and minimum values, respectively. The horizontal line in the middle of the box represents the median, and the lower and upper boundaries of the box are the boundaries of the first quartile (Q1) and the third quartile (Q3), respectively.
Fig. 6 Area percentage of desertified land in the whole region (a), as well as in the western (b) and eastern (c) regions from 1970 to 2019. The upper and lower limits are the maximum and minimum values, respectively. The horizontal line in the middle of the box represents the median, and the lower and upper boundaries of the box are the boundaries of the first quartile (Q1) and the third quartile (Q3), respectively.
Fig. 7 Average change rate of the area percentage of desertified land with different desertification degrees in the whole region as well as in the eastern and western regions from 1980 to 2019. Solid and hollow dots represent the start and end of the cycle, respectively. Dark goldenrod and medium sea green represent the period before and after 2000, with the starting periods being 1980-1989 and 2000-2009, respectively, and the ending periods being 1990-1999 and 2010-2019, respectively.
Fig. 8 Effect size (ES) of desertified land changes in the whole region as well as in the eastern and western regions during 1980-1989 (a), 1990-1999 (b), 2000-2009 (c), and 2010-2019 (d). Horizontal lines that do not cross the dashed line represent the 95% confidence interval for ES, while horizontal lines crossing the dashed line indicate no significant change in the ES of desertified land change. ***, P<0.001; **, P<0.010; *, P<0.050.
Fig. 9 Changes in desertified land area in China based on six national desertification monitoring data from 1994 to 2019. Data were sourced from State Forestry Administration (2005, 2006, 2011, 2015) and Zan et al. (2023).
Fig. 10 Trends in annual average temperature, annual precipitation, and annual average wind speed in major deserts and sandy lands from 1985 to 2019. (a), Hulunbuir Sandy Land; (b), Horqin Sandy Land; (c), Otindag Sandy Land; (d), Mu Us Sandy Land; (e), Hobq Desert; (f), Ulan Buh Desert; (g), Tengger Desert; (h), Badain Jaran Desert; (i), Qaidam Basin Desert; (j), Gurbantunggut Desert; (k), Taklimakan Desert. Due to the lack of effective meteorological data, the Kumtagh Desert has been excluded in this figure.
Fig. S1 Area percentage change of desertified land with different desertification degrees in major deserts and sandy lands from 1970 to 2019. (a), Hulunbuir Sandy Land; (b), Horqin Sandy Land; (c), Otindag Sandy Land; (d), Mu Us Sandy Land; (e), Hobq Desert; (f), Ulan Buh Desert; (g), Tengger Desert; (h), Badain Jaran Desert; (i), Qaidam Basin Desert; (j), Gurbantunggut Desert; (k), Taklimakan Desert. Data for the Kumtagh Desert was excluded due to lack of valid data.
Region Period P value
ES of
lightly desertified land		 ES of
moderately desertified land		 ES of
severely desertified land
Whole region 1980-1989 0.468 0.761 0.261
1990-1999 0.393 0.413 0.548
2000-2009 0.480 0.496 0.941
2010-2019 0.978 0.636 0.511
Western region 1980-1989 0.761 0.849 0.913
1990-1999 0.499 0.813 0.415
2000-2009 0.453 0.995 0.312
2010-2019 0.333 0.251 0.445
Eastern region 1980-1989 0.221 0.503 0.138
1990-1999 0.103 0.388 0.497
2000-2009 0.303 0.778 0.678
2010-2019 0.735 0.696 0.372
Table S1 P value in the Egger regression during four periods
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