Mechanisms of meteorological drought propagation to hydrological drought in the upper Shiyang River Basin, China

doi:10.1007/s40333-025-0106-7

Journal of Arid Land

2025, Vol. 17

Issue (8): 1027-1047 DOI: 10.1007/s40333-025-0106-7

Research article

Mechanisms of meteorological drought propagation to hydrological drought in the upper Shiyang River Basin, China

HUANG Peng¹, GUO Xi¹, YUE Yaojie¹^,²^,^*(

)

¹Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
²State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

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Abstract

Comprehensively revealing the intensity of drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought is crucial for effective drought monitoring and management. However, existing assessments often fail to integrate multiple drought characteristics, resulting in incomplete evaluations. To address this limitation, this study introduced the drought comprehensive propagation intensity (DCPI) index, a systematic tool that quantifies propagation intensity and incorporates five drought characteristic indicators (drought frequency, total duration, maximum duration, coverage, and degree) to assess the comprehensive drought intensity in the upper Shiyang River Basin, China from 1961 to 2023. The results indicated that pre-1980s drought propagation was relatively weak (DCPI<0.964), reflecting stable hydrological homeostasis. After the 1980s, the intensity significantly increased, peaking at 5.530 (rather strong drought) in the 2000s due to human-induced alterations in surface runoff and ecological changes. Spatially, the western tributaries (e.g., the Xida River Watershed) presented stronger hydrological drought intensity, whereas the eastern tributaries (e.g., the Huangyang, Gulang, and Dajing river watersheds) presented higher meteorological drought intensity. The DCPI values decreased from west to east, with near peer-to-peer propagation observed in the Dongda, Huangyang, and Jinta river watersheds, suggesting minimal human interference. A nonlinear relationship between meteorological and hydrological droughts was identified, with severe drought frequency and duration emerging as critical drivers of propagation intensity. Notably, trends of meteorological humidification coexist with hydrological aridification, highlighting systemic challenges for water resource management. The DCPI framework enhances the understanding of drought mechanisms by enabling a structured evaluation of drought impacts, which is essential for developing effective water resource strategies and ecological restoration efforts in arid areas. This study underscores the importance of integrating multi-dimensional drought characteristics to improve prediction accuracy and inform policy decisions.

Key words： drought comprehensive propagation intensity (DCPI) drought comprehensive intensity (DCI) drought frequency drought duration drought coverage standardized precipitation index (SPI) standardized runoff index (SRI)

Received: 10 December 2024 Published: 31 August 2025

Corresponding Authors: ^*YUE Yaojie (E-mail: yjyue@bnu.edu.cn)

About author: First author contact:All authors contributed equally to this work.

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Cite this article:

HUANG Peng, GUO Xi, YUE Yaojie. Mechanisms of meteorological drought propagation to hydrological drought in the upper Shiyang River Basin, China. Journal of Arid Land, 2025, 17(8): 1027-1047.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-025-0106-7 OR http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2025/V17/I8/1027

Fig. 1 Location (a) and tributary watershed distribution (b) of the upper Shiyang River Basin in the Qilian Mountains

Table 1 Geographical location of the hydrological stations

Table 2 Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) drought grade

Table 3 Weight of meteorological drought characteristics

Table 4 Weight of hydrological drought characteristics

Fig. 2 Framework of the construction of drought comprehensive propagation intensity (DCPI). MD, meteorological drought; HD, hydrological drought; SPI, standardized precipitation index; SRI, standardized runoff index; DCI, drought comprehensive intensity.

Fig. 3 Spatio-temporal variation in meteorological and hydrological droughts in the upper Shiyang River Basin from 1961 to 2023. (a), trend of SPI at a twelve-month time scale (SPI₁₂); (b), trend of SRI at a twelve-month time scale (SRI₁₂); (c) SPI₁₂ and SRI₁₂ cumulative anomalies; (d), meteorological dry-wet conditions of tributary; (e), hydrological dry-wet conditions of tributary.

Fig. 4 Frequency and degree of meteorological drought (MD) and hydrological drought (HD) in the upper Shiyang River Basin from 1961 to 2023

Fig. 5 Frequency and degree of meteorological (a1-a7) and hydrological (b1-b7) droughts in each tributary in the upper Shiyang River Basin from 1961 to 2023

Fig. 6 Spatio-temporal variation in drought duration in the upper Shiyang River Basin from 1961 to 2023. (a), total duration and maximum duration of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the entire upstream region; (b), total duration and maximum duration of meteorological and hydrological droughts in each tributary; (c), spatial distribution of the maximum duration of meteorological drought in each tributary; (d), spatial distribution of the maximum duration of hydrological drought in each tributary.

Fig. 7 Temporal variation characteristics of meteorological drought coverage (a) and hydrological drought coverage (b) in the upper Shiyang River Basin from 1961 to 2023. The curve is the trend-fitting line.

Table 5 Correlation coefficient and conditional probability for the upper Shiyang River Basin and each tributary

Table 6 Classification of drought comprehensive propagation intensity (DCPI) in the upper Shiyang River Basin

Table 7 Interdecadal drought comprehensive intensity (DCI) and propagation intensity in the upper Shiyang River Basin

Fig. 8 Drought comprehensive intensity (DCI) and drought comprehensive propagation intensity (DCPI) of each tributary in the upper Shiyang River Basin. CPP, close to peer-to-peer.

Fig. 9 Interdecadal drought propagation of each tributary in the upper Shiyang River Basin from 1961 to 2023. (a), 1960s; (b), 1970s; (c), 1980s; (d), 1990s; (e), 2000s; (f), 2010-2023.


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