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Journal of Arid Land  2025, Vol. 17 Issue (11): 1542-1557    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-025-0033-7    
Research article     
Spatial trends of extreme temperature events and climate change indicators in climate zones of Jordan
Abdelaziz Q BASHABSHEH1,*(), Kamel K ALZBOON1, Zeyad ALSHBOUL2
1Department of Environmental Engineering, Al-Huson University College, Al-Balqa Applied University, Irbid 21510, Jordan
2Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Ajloun National University, Ajloun 26810, Jordan
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Abstract  

Extreme temperature events have intensified across Jordan over the past 40 a, increasing risks to agriculture, water availability, urban infrastructure, and public health. The purpose of this study is to assess the long-term spatial trends and regime shifts in extreme temperature indicators across Jordan's climate zones to explore climate adaptation strategies. This study presents a high-resolution and spatially explicit assessment of thermal extremes using daily data from 1982 to 2024 across 45 grid-based study points in Jordan. Thirteen temperature indices, including percentile-based thresholds, duration metrics, and absolute extremes, were computed using RClimDex and analyzed across four Köppen climate zones: hot desert (BWh), hot semi-arid (BSh), cold desert (BWk), and Mediterranean (Csa) climates. The analysis confirmed a statistically significant warming trend: annual mean maximum temperatures increased by 2.198°C, while annual mean minimum temperatures rose by 2.035°C. Cold extremes have sharply declined, with cold days (TX10p) decreasing by 70.0%-80.0%, and the cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) dropping from 12.6 to 4.0 d/a, particularly in the BWk zone. Heat indices intensified across all zones, with warm days (TX90p) increasing by over 300.0% in BWh, warm nights (TN90p) rising by 38.1%, and the warm spell duration indicator (WSDI) extending fourfold, indicating prolonged exposure to heatwaves. Mean value of maximum temperature (TXx) reached 45.600°C in most arid areas, while minimum temperature (TNx) exceeded 31.600°C, highlighting increased nocturnal heat stress. Change-point analysis indicated that 1998 was a pivotal year, marking a structural transition in both cold and warm temperature indices. Subsequent intensifications after 2010 in TN90p, TNx, and mean of daily maximum temperature (Tmaxmean) reflected an ongoing trend toward sustained thermal extremes. In addition to time-series trends, the study employed network-based correlation analysis to explore the coherence among climate indices. Strong positive correlations were observed among TXx, TX90p, and mean of daily minimum temperature (Tminmean) (r≥0.94), as well as among TN90p, Tminmean, and TNx (r≥0.87), indicating a tightly clustered heat subsystem. Duration metrics like the WSDI showed a close alignment with percentile extremes (between WSDI and TX90p; r=0.88), suggesting integrated heatwave behavior. In contrast, cold indices (TX10p, TN90p, frost days, and CSDI) exhibited weak or negative correlations and displayed peripheral positioning in the climate network, indicating their limited role under a warming regime. Absolute extremes showed weak internal linkages, suggesting episodic rather than systemic response characteristics. This structural realignment indicated a shift from a previously balanced thermal profile to a heat-dominated climate system. Regional variations revealed that BWh and BSh were experiencing the steepest warming, while Csa was transitioning more slowly but was showing signs of reduced winter cooling and increased irrigation demands. The findings establish a robust climate baseline for Jordan and offer actionable insights for climate adaptation planning. Recommended measures include precision irrigation, the development of heat-resilient crops, improvements to urban cooling infrastructure, and early warning systems for thermal extremes. By integrating spatial climate zoning, regime shift analysis, and inter-index correlation structures, this study provides a replicable framework for monitoring climatic transformations and informing resilience strategies in arid and semi-arid areas.



Key wordsclimate change      extreme events      arid area      temperature trends      weather shift      Köppen climate classification      Jordan     
Received: 03 June 2025      Published: 30 November 2025
Corresponding Authors: *Abdelaziz Q BASHABSHEH (E-mail: abdelazizbashabsheh@gmail.com)
Cite this article:

Abdelaziz Q BASHABSHEH, Kamel K ALZBOON, Zeyad ALSHBOUL. Spatial trends of extreme temperature events and climate change indicators in climate zones of Jordan. Journal of Arid Land, 2025, 17(11): 1542-1557.

URL:

http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-025-0033-7     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2025/V17/I11/1542

Fig. 1 Map of the study area showing Jordan's governorates, numbered study points, and climate zones classified according to the Köppen climate classification. BSh, hot semi-arid climate; BWh, hot desert climate; BWk, cold desert climate; Csa, Mediterranean climate.
No. Abbreviation Indicator name Definition Unit
1 FD0 Frost days Days when daily minimum temperature (TN)<0.000°C d
2 TXx Maximum Tmax Monthly maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TX) °C
3 TNx Maximum Tmin Monthly maximum value of TN °C
4 TXn Minimum Tmax Monthly minimum value of TX °C
5 TNn Minimum Tmin Monthly minimum value of TN °C
6 TN10p Cold nights Percentage of days when TN<10th percentile %
7 TX10p Cold days Percentage of days when TX<10th percentile %
8 TN90p Warm nights Percentage of days when TN>90th percentile %
9 TX90p Warm days Percentage of days when TX>90th percentile %
10 WSDI Warm spell duration indicator Days with at least 6 consecutive days when TX>90th percentile d
11 CSDI Cold spell duration indicator Days with at least 6 consecutive days when TN<10th percentile d
12 Tmaxmean Mean of daily maximum temperature Annual mean of TX °C
13 Tminmean Mean of daily minimum temperature Annual mean of TN °C
Table 1 Temperature indices and definitions
Fig. 2 Average trends for cold indices for the BSh (hot semi-arid), BWh (cold desert), BWk (hot desert), and Csa (Mediterranean) zones from 1982 to 2024. (a), TX10p (percentage of days when daily minimum temperature (TN)<10th percentile); (b), TN10p (percentage of days when daily maximum temperature (TX)<10th percentile); (c), TXn (monthly minimum values of daily maximum temperature); (d), TNn (monthly minimum values of daily minimum temperature); (e), CSDI (cold spell duration indicator); (f), FD0 (days when TN<0.000ºC).
Fig. 3 Average trends for hot indices for the BSh, BWh, BWk, and Csa zones from 1982 to 2024. (a), TX90p (percentage of days when daily maximum temperature (TX)>90th percentile); (b), TN90p (percentage of days when daily minimum temperature (TN)>90th percentile); (c), TXx (monthly maximum value of TX); (d), TNx (monthly maximum value of TN); (e), WSDI (warm spell duration indicator).
Fig. 4 Average trends of maximum and minimum temperatures for the BSh, BWh, BWk, and Csa zones from 1982 to 2024. (a), Tmaxmean (mean of daily maximum temperature); (b), Tminmean (mean of daily minimum temperature).
Fig. 5 Frequency distribution of extreme temperature events across climatic zones in Jordan from 1982 to 2024. (a), percentage of TX10p; (b), percentage of TN10p; (c), CSDI; (d), FD0, (e), percentage of TX90p; (f), percentage of TN90p; (g), WSDI.
Fig. 6 Frequency distribution of temperature indices across climatic zones in Jordan from 1982 to 2024. (a), TXx; (b), TXn; (c), TNx; (d), TNn; (e), Tmaxmean; (f), Tminmean.
Fig. 7 Pearson's correlation of 13 climate indices used to evaluate thermal behavior and regime shifts
Fig. 8 Correlation-based climate index network illustrating statistically significant relationships among 13 climate indices
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