Occurrence of flash drought in reservoirs in the semi-arid area of the Ceará State, Brazil

doi:10.1007/s40333-025-0020-z

Journal of Arid Land

2025, Vol. 17

Issue (7): 865-887 DOI: 10.1007/s40333-025-0020-z CSTR: 32276.14.JAL.0250020z

Research article

Occurrence of flash drought in reservoirs in the semi-arid area of the Ceará State, Brazil

Suellen Teixeira Nobre GONÇALVES^*(

), Francisco das Chagas VASCONCELOS JÚNIOR, Cleiton da Silva SILVEIRA, José Micael Ferreira da COSTA, Antonio Duarte MARCOS JUNIOR

¹Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Ceará (UFC), Fortaleza 60020-181, Brazil
²Ceará Foundation for Meteorology and Water Resources (FUNCEME), Fortaleza 60015-221, Brazil

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Abstract

Precipitation is scarce in semi-arid areas, which results in serious drought. Occurrence of flash drought is quite often in these areas, and flash drought may also cause significant disasters. However, monitoring flash drought is still weak and remains a challenge. This study aims to identify, evaluate, and monitor flash drought events that occurred from 1961 to 2020 in reservoirs of the Ceará State, Brazil. The Christian's method, standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and evaporative demand drought index (EDDI) were used to assess the severity and persistence of flash drought. Moreover, analyses conducted in 2001, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2016, and 2020 revealed the complexity and interaction of flash drought with environmental and meteorological factors. The results indicated that in dry years such as 2001, 2012, and 2016, drought indices pointed to the intensification of drought conditions, with impacts on major reservoirs in the area, such as Banabuiú, Castanhão, and Orós. Low precipitation, associated with high evaporative demand, intensified water stress, reducing water availability for the population and local ecosystems. In wet years such as 2008, 2011, and 2020, SPEI and EDDI indicated higher moisture levels and drought relief, favoring the recovery of reservoirs. It was also observed that most flash drought episodes evolved into conventional droughts, highlighting their persistence and potential long-term impact. Moreover, the months of May and November presented a higher frequency of flash drought during the wet and dry periods, respectively, negatively impacting most of the studied reservoirs. These findings underscore the need for effective drought monitoring and mitigation strategies to reduce its impacts on agriculture and water resources in the semi-arid area. Early detection and analysis of flash drought are important for improving water resource management and for continuous adaptation to changing drought conditions.

Key words： water resources evaporative demand drought indices monitoring precipitation

Received: 03 November 2024 Published: 31 July 2025

Corresponding Authors: ^*Suellen Teixeira Nobre GONÇALVES (E-mail: suellen.nobre@gmail.com)

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	Suellen Teixeira Nobre GONÇALVES
	Francisco das Chagas VASCONCELOS JÚNIOR
	Cleiton da Silva SILVEIRA
	José Micael Ferreira da COSTA
	Antonio Duarte MARCOS JUNIOR

Cite this article:

Suellen Teixeira Nobre GONÇALVES, Francisco das Chagas VASCONCELOS JÚNIOR, Cleiton da Silva SILVEIRA, José Micael Ferreira da COSTA, Antonio Duarte MARCOS JUNIOR. Occurrence of flash drought in reservoirs in the semi-arid area of the Ceará State, Brazil. Journal of Arid Land, 2025, 17(7): 865-887.

URL:

http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-025-0020-z OR http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2025/V17/I7/865

Fig. 1 Flowchart of the method used in the study

Fig. 2 Location of the hydrographic basins and monitored reservoirs of the Ceará State, Brazil

Fig. 3 Venn diagram with the representation of elements involved in the identification of flash drought (Christian et al., 2024)

Table 1 Classification of flash drought events according to their intensities

Table 2 EDDI (evaporative demand drought index) classification according to drought severity

Table 3 Classification of SPI (standardized precipitation index) according to severity

Table 4 Classification of SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) according to wet or drought severity

Fig. 4 Percentage of years with flash drought for the monitored reservoirs of the Ceará State from 1961 to 2020. (a), pre-rainy season; (b), rainy season; (c), post-rainy season; (d), dry season.

Fig. 5 Percentage of years with flash drought for the monitored reservoirs in the Ceará State from 1961 to 2020. (a1-a4), moderate flash drought (FD1); (b1-b4), severe flash drought (FD2).

Fig. 6 Percentage of years with flash drought events for the monitored reservoirs in the Ceará State from 1961 to 2020. (a1-a4), extreme flash drought (FD3); (b1-b4), exceptional flash drought (FD4).

Fig. 7 Classification of flash drought events for the selected reservoirs from 1961 to 2020. (a), Araras; (b), Atalho; (c), Banabuiú; (d), Barragem do Batalhão; (e), Castanhão; (f), ltaúna; (g), Jaburu I; (h), Orós; (i), Pacoti; (j), Pentecoste; (k), Santo Antônio de Aracatiacu; (l), Santo Antônio de Russas.

Table 5 Month with the highest occurrence of flash drought for each season

Fig. 8 Classification of monthly SPI (standardized precipitation index) events for the selected reservoirs from 1961 to 2020. (a), Araras; (b), Atalho; (c), Banabuiú; (d), Barragem do Batalhão; (e), Castanhão; (f), ltaúna; (g), Jaburu I; (h), Orós; (i), Pacoti; (j), Pentecoste; (k), Santo Antônio de Aracatuaçu; (l), Santo Antônio de Russas.

Fig. 9 Classification of monthly SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) events for the selected reservoirs from 1961 to 2020. (a), Araras; (b), Atalho; (c), Banabuiú; (d), Barragem do Batalhão; (e), Castanhão; (f), ltaúna; (g), Jaburu I; (h), Orós; (i), Pacoti; (j), Pentecoste; (k), Santo Antônio de Aracatuaçu; (l), Santo Antônio de Russas.

Fig. 10 Classification of monthly EDDI (evaporative demand drought index) events for the selected reservoirs from 1961 to 2020. (a), Araras; (b), Atalho; (c), Banabuiú; (d), Barragem do Batalhão; (e), Castanhão; (f), ltaúna; (g), Jaburu I; (h), Orós; (i), Pacoti; (j), Pentecoste; (k), Santo Antônio de Aracatuaçu; (l), Santo Antônio de Russas.

Table 6 Relationships among SPI, SPEI, and EDDI indices


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