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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2025, Vol. 17 Issue (7): 997-1013    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-025-0022-x     CSTR: 32276.14.JAL.0250022x
Research article     
Effects of climate change and human activities on grassland productivity: A case study of the Qinghai Lake Basin, China
ZHANG Jinlong1,2, MA Xiaofang1, QI Yuan1, YANG Rui1, LI Long3, ZHANG Juan1,2, MA Chao1,2, WANG Lu1,2, WANG Hongwei1,*()
1State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Provincial and Heihe Remote Sensing Experimental Research Station, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
2University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3Qinghai Remote Sensing Center for Natural Resources, Xining 810001, China
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Abstract  

Grassland is a key component of the ecosystem in the Qinghai Lake Basin, China. Understanding the effects of climate change and human activities on grassland productivity significantly improves ecological conservation and promotes sustainable vegetation growth in this area. Based on the net primary productivity (NPP) products of MOD17A3HGF (a moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) product that provides annual NPP at 500 m resolution) and meteorological data, we analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution of grassland NPP and its interaction with climate factors in the Qinghai Lake Basin from 2001 to 2022 via partial correlation and trend analysis methods. We also used the deflecting trend residual method and scenario analysis method to quantitatively assess the relative contributions of climatic factors and human activities to grassland NPP. The results revealed that: (1) during the past 22 a, grassland NPP increased considerably, with a gradient change from the northwest to the southeast of the study area; (2) sunshine duration, precipitation, and temperature positively influenced grassland NPP, with sunshine duration exerting a stronger effect on grassland NPP than precipitation and temperature; and (3) 98.47% of the grassland in the study area was restored, with an average contribution of 65.00% from human activities and 35.00% from climatic alterations. Compared with climate change, human-induced factors had a greater effect on grassland NPP in this area. The results of the study not only provide important scientific support for ecological restoration and sustainable development of the basin but also offer new ideas for research on similar ecologically fragile areas.

Key words： ecological conservation      human-induced factors      net primary productivity      precipitation      temperature     
Received: 25 December 2024      Published: 31 July 2025
Corresponding Authors: *WANG Hongwei (E-mail: wanghw@lzb.ac.cn)
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ZHANG Jinlong
MA Xiaofang
QI Yuan
YANG Rui
LI Long
ZHANG Juan
MA Chao
WANG Lu
WANG Hongwei
Cite this article:

ZHANG Jinlong, MA Xiaofang, QI Yuan, YANG Rui, LI Long, ZHANG Juan, MA Chao, WANG Lu, WANG Hongwei. Effects of climate change and human activities on grassland productivity: A case study of the Qinghai Lake Basin, China. Journal of Arid Land, 2025, 17(7): 997-1013.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-025-0022-x     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2025/V17/I7/997

Fig. 1 Overview and distribution of grasslands in the Qinghai Lake Basin
Scenario NPPslope SC SH Contribution
1 >0 >0 >0 BCH
2 >0 <0 >0 BH
3 >0 >0 <0 BC
4 <0 <0 <0 DCH
5 <0 >0 <0 DH
6 <0 <0 >0 DC
Table 1 Six scenarios of grassland restoration and degradation
Fig. 2 Spatial pattern of grassland net primary productivity (NPP) in the Qinghai Lake Basin from 2001 to 2022
Fig. 3 Spatial variation trend (a) and significance test of grassland NPP (b) in the Qinghai Lake Basin from 2001 to 2022
Fig. 4 Inter-annual change in grassland NPP in the Qinghai Lake Basin from 2001 to 2022
Fig. 5 Inter-annual changes in temperature (a), precipitation (b), and sunshine duration (c) in the Qinghai Lake Basin from 2001 to 2022
Fig. 6 Contributions of temperature (Stem; a), precipitation (Spre; b), and sunshine duration (Sssd; c) to the changes in grassland NPP in the Qinghai Lake Basin
Fig. 7 Contributions of climate change (SC; a) and human activities (SH; b) to the changes in grassland NPP in the Qinghai Lake Basin
Fig. 8 Grassland restoration and degradation influenced by climate change and human activities in the Qinghai Lake Basin
Fig. 9 Relative contribution of climate change (a) and human activities (b) to the restoration of grasslands in the Qinghai Lake Basin
Fig. 10 Correlation between validated and simulated meteorological factors. (a), temperature; (b), precipitation; (c), sunshine duration. RMSE, root mean square error.
Fig. 11 Correlation between simulated grassland NPP of MOD17A3HGF model and validated grassland NPP of Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) model. MOD17A3HGF, a moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) product that provides annual NPP at 500 m resolution.
Fig. S1 Spatiotemporal variation of the livestock pressure index in the Qinghai Lake Basin (a) and livestock pressure index in different areas (b) from 2001 to 2019
Implementation township Implementation project Implementation year
Jianghe Town Control of weeds and poisonous plants on degraded grassland 2009, 2010
Control of grasshopper on degraded grassland 2009
Desertification-type degraded grassland control 2010
Control of caterpillar on degraded grassland 2009
Kuaierma Town Control of weeds and poisonous plants on degraded grassland 2009, 2010
Control of grasshopper on degraded grassland 2009
Desertification-based degraded grassland control 2010
"Black soil beach" type degraded grassland control 2010
Shengge Town Desertification-based degraded grassland control 2010
"Black soil beach" type degraded grassland control 2010
Xinyuan Town Control of weeds and poisonous plants on degraded grassland 2009, 2010
Control of caterpillar on degraded grassland 2009
Desertification-based degraded grassland control 2010
Zhihema Town Control of weeds and poisonous plants on degraded grassland 2009
Control of grasshopper on degraded grassland 2009
Desertification-based degraded grassland control 2010
Table S1 Degraded grassland control project in Tianjun County
Fig. S2 Relationship between CO2 concentration and grassland net primary productivity (NPP)
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