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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2023, Vol. 15 Issue (4): 424-438    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-023-0054-z
Research article     
Investigating the causes of Lake Urmia shrinkage: climate change or anthropogenic factors?
Mehri SHAMS GHAHFAROKHI1, Sogol MORADIAN2,*()
1Department of Social Sciences, University of Isfahan, Isfahan 81746-73441, Iran
2Department of Civil Engineering, University of Galway, Galway H91TK33, Ireland
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Abstract  

In the current scenario, Lake Urmia, one of the vastest hyper saline lakes on the Earth, has been affected by serious environmental degradation. Using different satellite images and observational data, this study investigated the changes in the lake for the period 1970-2020 based on the effects of climate change and several human-induced processes on Lake Urmia, such as population growth, excessive dam construction, low irrigation water use efficiency, poor water resources management, increased sediment flow into the lake, and lack of political and legal frameworks. The results indicated that between 1970 and 1997, the process of change in Lake Urmia was slow; however; the shrinkage was faster between 1998 and 2018, with about 30.00% of the lake area disappearing. As per the findings, anthropogenic factors had a much greater impact on Lake Urmia than climate change and prolonged drought; the mismanagement of water consumption in the agricultural sector and surface and underground water withdrawals in the basin have resulted in a sharp decrease in the lake's surface. These challenges have serious implications for water resources management in Lake Urmia Basin. Therefore, we provided a comprehensive overview of anthropogenic factors on the changes in Lake Urmia along with existing opportunities for better water resources management in Lake Urmia Basin. This study serves as a guideline framework for climate scientists and hydrologists in order to assess the effects of different factors on lake water resources and for decision-makers to formulate strategies and plans according to the management task.

Key words： Lake Urmia      lake shrinkage      climate change      population growth      dam construction      water resources management     
Received: 12 August 2022      Published: 30 April 2023
Corresponding Authors: *Sogol MORADIAN (E-mail: sogolmoradian@live.com)
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Mehri SHAMS GHAHFAROKHI, Sogol MORADIAN. Investigating the causes of Lake Urmia shrinkage: climate change or anthropogenic factors?. Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(4): 424-438.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-023-0054-z     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2023/V15/I4/424

Fig. 1 Overview of Lake Urmia Basin (a) and satellite images showing the variations of the area of Lake Urmia in 1984 (b), 1998 (c), 2007 (d), 2014 (e), and 2018 (f). Note that the images were acquired by Landsat 5, 7, and 8.
Item Description
Geographical location Coordinates of 44°13′-47°54′E and 35°40′-38°29′N in Iran.
Surface area 3500 km2 in 2013 (maximum length of 140 km and maximum width of 55 km).
Depth Average depth: 6 m; maximum depth: 16 m.
Lake level Ecological level of the lake's water level: 1274.1 m a.s.l.
Permanent main water sources (1) Aji Chai; (2) Alamlou River; (3) Barandooz River; (4) Gadar River; (5) Ghaie River; (6) Leilan River; (7) Mahabad River; (8) Nazloo River; (9) Roze River; (10) Shahar River; (11) Simine River; (12) Zarrine River; (13) Zola River.
Table 1 Detailed information of Lake Urmia
Indicator Formula Reference
Automated water extraction index (AWEI) $\text{AWEI}=4({{X}_{\text{Green}}}-{{X}_{\text{MIR}}})-(0.25{{X}_{\text{NIR}}}+2.75{{X}_{\text{SWIR}}})$ Feyisa et al. (2014)
Automated water extraction index (shadow correction; AWEIsh) $\mathrm{DVW}=\frac{X_{\mathrm{NIR}}-X_{\mathrm{Red}}}{X_{\mathrm{NIR}}+X_{\mathrm{Red}}}-\frac{X_{\mathrm{NIR}}-X_{\mathrm{MIR}}}{X_{\mathrm{NIR}}+X_{\mathrm{MIR}}}$ Acharya et al. (2018); Wang et al. (2018)
Difference between vegetation and water (DVW) $\text{DVW}=\frac{{{X}_{\text{NIR}}}-{{X}_{\text{Red}}}}{{{X}_{\text{NIR}}}+{{X}_{\text{Red}}}}-\frac\\
{{{X}_{\text{NIR}}}-{{X}_{\text{MIR}}}}{{{X}_{\text{NIR}}}+{{X}_{\text{MIR}}}}$		 Lyon et al. (1998); Xu et al. (2013); Naji (2018)
Modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI) $\text{MNDWI}=\frac{{{X}_{\text{Green}}}-{{X}_{\text{MIR}}}}{{{X}_{\text{Green}}}+{{X}_{\text{MIR}}}}$ Xu (2005)
Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) $\text{NDVI}=\frac{{{X}_{\text{NIR}}}-{{X}_{\text{Red}}}}{{{X}_{\text{NIR}}}+{{X}_{\text{Red}}}}$ Pettorelli (2013)
Normalized difference water index (NDWI) $\text{NDWI}=\frac{{{X}_{\text{Green}}}-{{X}_{\text{NIR}}}}{{{X}_{\text{Green}}}+{{X}_{\text{NIR}}}}$ Gao (1996); McFeeters (2013)
Table 2 Indicators used to estimate the area of Lake Urmia
Fig. 2 Behavior of a system in response to disturbances: recovery from disturbances to normal state
Index Water pixels (%) Area (km2) Absolute error (km2)
AWEI 6.94 2457.93 457.93
AWEIsh 69.54 24,637.89 22,637.89
DVW 16.11 5708.99 3708.99
MNDWI 15.11 5354.68 3354.68
NDVI 37.03 13,120.57 11,120.57
NDWI 6.19 2193.38 193.38
Table 3 Area of Lake Urmia in 2014 calculated from different indicators
Fig. 3 Changes in the total area of Lake Urmia during 1970-2020 based on normalized difference water index (NDWI)
Fig. 4 Changes in the total water volume of Lake Urmia and precipitation of Lake Urmia Basin during 1970-2020
Fig. 5 Chnages of the average standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Lake Urmia Basin during 1970-2020. Negative red SPI indicates the occurrence of drought and positive blue SPI means the end of drought.
Fig. 6 Changes in the total water volume of Lake Urmia and population of Lake Urmia Basin during 1970-2020
Fig. 7 Changes in the total water volume of Lake Urmia and agricultural water use of Lake Urmia Basin during 1970-2020
Fig. 8 Changes in the total water volume of Lake Urmia and surface water withdrawals of Lake Urmia Basin during 1970-2020
Data Water volume (×109 m3)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Observed data 3.16 2.49 1.87 1.48 1.90 1.95 1.54 1.66
WEAP modelling data 3.66 3.20 2.49 2.09 1.84 1.72 1.71 1.65
Table 4 Comparing the observed water volume of Lake Urmia and modelled water volume from the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) during 2011-2018
Data Water demand (×109 m3)
Domestic sector Agricultural sector Industrial sector
Observed data 175.90 3351.10 97.10
WEAP modelling data 189.90 3236.30 69.95
Table 5 Comparing the observed water demand of Lake Urmia Basin and modelled water demand from the WEAP in different sectors in 2018
Fig. 9 Observed total water volume of Lake Urmia during 2000-2020 and modelled water volume from the WEAP during 2020-2040 based on the different adopted management strategies. S1, the basic strategy; S2, a 25.00% decrease in water demand in the industrial and domestic sectors; S3, a 40.00% decrease in water demand in the agricultural sector; S4, water transferring to Lake Urmia; S5, a 25.00% reduction in all water demands.
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