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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2020, Vol. 12 Issue (1): 73-89    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-020-0050-5     CSTR: 32276.14.s40333-020-0050-5
Research article     
Coupling analysis of social-economic water consumption and its effects on the arid environments in Xinjiang of China based on the water and ecological footprints
ZHANG Pei1, DENG Mingjiang2, LONG Aihua1,3,*(), DENG Xiaoya1, WANG Hao1, HAI Yang1, WANG Jie3, LIU Yundong4
1 State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
2 Xinjiang Water Conservancy and Hydropower Planning and Design Management Bureau, Urumqi 830000, China
3 College of Water Conservancy and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832003, China
4 College of Soil & Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China;
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Abstract  

In arid areas, ecological degradation aroused by over-exploitation of fresh water, expansion of artificial oasis and shrinkage of natural oasis, has drawn attention of many scholars and officials. The water and ecological footprints can be used to quantitatively evaluate the water consumption of social-economic activities and their influence on the eco-environments. In addition, increase of the water footprint indicates the expansion of artificial oasis, and the influence on the natural oasis could be reflected by the variation of the ecological footprint. This study was conducted to answer a scientific question that what is the quantitative relationship between the expansion of the artificial oasis and the degradation of the natural oasis in the arid environments of Xinjiang, China. Thus, based on the social-economic data, water consumption data and meteorological data during 2001-2015, we calculated the water and ecological footprints to express the human-related pressure exerted on the water resources and arid environments in Xinjiang (including 14 prefectures and cities), and explore the relationship between the water and ecological footprints and its mechanism by using the coupling analysis and Granger causality test. The results show that both the water and ecological footprints of Xinjiang increased significantly during 2001-2015, and the increasing rate of the ecological footprint was much faster than that of the water footprint. The coupling degree between the water and ecological footprints was relatively high at the temporal scale and varied at the spatial scale. Among the 14 prefectures and cities examined in Xinjiang, the greater social-economic development (such as in Karamay and Urumqi) was associated with the lower coupling degree between the two footprints. Increases in the water footprint will cause the ecological footprint to increase, such that a 1-unit increase in the consumption of water resources would lead to 2-3 units of ecological degradation. The quantitative relationship between the increases of the water and ecological footprints, together with the intensities of water consumption both in the natural and artificial oases of Tarim River Basin, have approved the fact that the formation and expansion of 1 unit of the artificial oasis would bring about the degradation of 2 units of the natural oasis. These conclusions not only provide a technical basis for sustainable development in Xinjiang, but also offer a theoretical guide and scientific information that could be used in similar arid areas around the world.

Key words： water consumption      ecological footprint      water footprint      Granger causality test      natural oasis      artificial oasis      Tarim River     
Received: 05 December 2018      Published: 10 February 2020
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About author: *Corresponding author: LONG Aihua (E-mail: ahlong@iwhr.com)
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Pei ZHANG
Mingjiang DENG
Aihua LONG
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Jie WANG
Yundong LIU
Cite this article:

ZHANG Pei, DENG Mingjiang, LONG Aihua, DENG Xiaoya, WANG Hao, HAI Yang, WANG Jie, LIU Yundong. Coupling analysis of social-economic water consumption and its effects on the arid environments in Xinjiang of China based on the water and ecological footprints. Journal of Arid Land, 2020, 12(1): 73-89.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-020-0050-5     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2020/V12/I1/73

C value Level of coupling Correlation between the water and ecological footprints
0.0-0.5 Low Weak
0.5-0.8 Middle Moderate
0.8-1.0 High Strong
Table 1 Coupling degree between the water and ecological footprints
Fig. 1 Composition percentages and amounts of the ecological footprint (a) and the water footprint (b) in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2015. IWF, industrial water footprint; DWF, domestic water footprint; AWF, animal-related water footprint; CWF, crop water footprint; TWF, total water footprint. The red line represents the variation trend.
Fig. 2 Water and ecological footprints of the 14 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang in 2015. 1, Aksu Prefecture (abbreviated as Aksu); 2, Altay Prefecture (Altay); 3, Bayingol Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture (Bayingol); 4, Bortala Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture (Bortala); 5, Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture (Changji); 6, Hami Prefecture (Hami); 7, Hotan Prefecture (Hotan); 8, Kashgar Prefecture (Kashgar); 9, Karamay City (Karamay); 10, Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture (Kizilsu); 11, Tacheng Prefecture (Tacheng); 12, Turpan City (Turpan); 13, Urumqi City (Urumqi); 14, Ili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture (Ili).
Fig. 3 Homogeneous indices of the water and ecological footprints and coupling degree between the two footprints in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2015
Fig. 4 Coupling degree between the water and ecological footprints in the 14 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang in 2015. The numbers of the prefectures and cities are the same as in Figure 2.
Lagging period Hypothesis F statistic Significance level Coupling decision
0 The ecological footprint is not the Granger cause of the water footprint 4.3 0.05 Accept
0 The water footprint is not the Granger cause of the ecological footprint 0.8 0.36 Accept
1 The ecological footprint is not the Granger cause of the water footprint 3.4 0.05 Accept
1 The water footprint is not the Granger cause of the ecological footprint 7.4 <0.01 Decline
2 The ecological footprint is not the Granger cause of the water footprint 1.2 0.34 Accept
2 The water footprint is not the Granger cause of the ecological footprint 5.2 0.01 Decline
3 The ecological footprint is not the Granger cause of the water footprint 2.0 0.15 Accept
3 The water footprint is not the Granger cause of the ecological footprint 2.0 0.16 Accept
4 The ecological footprint is not the Granger cause of the water footprint 2.4 0.12 Accept
4 The water footprint is not the Granger cause of the ecological footprint 1.2 0.37 Accept
Table 2 Granger causality test of the water and ecological footprints
Fig. 5 Output value per unit ecological footprint in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2015
Fig. 6 Relationships between the homogeneous indices of the water and ecological footprints (a) and between the water and biomass footprints (b) in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2015. The biomass footprint is the ecological footprint of renewable resources.
Region Section 1: Alar-Xinquman Section 2: Xinquman-Yingbazha
Area of
vegetation
(×103 km2)		 Water consumption
(×108 m3)		 Water consumption rate
(×105 m3/km2)		 Area of
vegetation
(×103 km2)		 Water consumption (×108 m3) Water consumption rate
(×105 m3/km2)
North bank 2.27 3.84 1.69 3.11 5.75 1.85
South bank 1.66 1.86 1.12 1.53 1.83 1.20
Total 3.93 5.70 1.45 4.64 7.58 1.63
Region Section 3: Yingbazha-Wusiman Section 4: Wusiman-Qiala
Area of
vegetation
(×103 km2)		 Water consumption (×108 m3) Water consumption rate
(×105 m3/km2)		 Area of
vegetation
(×103 km2)		 Water consumption (×108 m3) Water consumption rate
(×105 m3/km2)
North bank 2.86 3.83 1.34 2.12 3.80 1.79
South bank 0.94 1.10 1.16 0.30 0.30 1.01
Total 3.80 4.93 1.30 2.42 4.10 1.70
Region Section 5: Qiala-Taitema Lake Tarim River
Area of
vegetation
(×103 km2)		 Water consumption (×108 m3) Water consumption rate
(×105 m3/km2)		 Area of
vegetation
(×103 km2)		 Water consumption (×108 m3) Water consumption rate
(×105 m3/km2)
North bank 0.93 1.33 1.43 11.29 18.56 1.64
South bank 0.57 1.21 2.14 5.00 6.30 1.26
Total 1.50 2.54 1.70 16.29 24.86 1.53
Table 3 Area and water consumption of the natural oasis in the mainstream of Tarim River
Prefecture Area
(×103 km2)		 Water consumption
(×108 m3)		 Water consumption rate
(×105 m3/km2)
Bayingol 12.33 28.66 2.32
Hotan 12.74 33.95 2.67
Aksu 16.19 71.23 4.40
Kashgar 18.44 73.55 3.99
Kizilsu 0.80 5.46 6.85
Total 60.50 212.85 3.52
Table 4 Area and water consumption of the artificial oasis in the five prefectures in Tarim River Basin
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