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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2021, Vol. 13 Issue (12): 1260-1273    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-021-0026-0
Original article     
Mass balance of saline lakes considering inflow loads of rivers and groundwater: the case of Lake Issyk- Kul, Central Asia
Kei SAITOH1,*(), Rysbek SATYLKANOV2, Kenji OKUBO3
1Beppu Geothermal Research Laboratory, Institute for Geothermal Sciences, Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University, Oita 8740903, Japan
2Tien Shan High Mountain Research Center, Institute of Water Problem and Hydropower of National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek 720033, Kyrgyzstan
3Graduate School of Environmental and Life Science, Okayama University, Okayama 7008530, Japan
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Abstract  

This study aimed to elucidate the influence of inflow water on the salinity concentration process of a saline lake and the mass balance of Lake Issyk-Kul, a tectonic saltwater lake in Kyrgyzstan. Based on the survey results and meteorological data from 2012 to 2015, we analyzed the dissolved chemical composition loads due to water inflow. Then, we discussed the relationship between the increase in salinity and water inflow into the lake. Through the water quality analysis data, we used the tank model to estimate the river inflow and analyze the loads by the L-Q curve. The groundwater loads were then estimated from the average annual increase in salinity of the lake over a period of 30 a. The results suggest that Lake Issyk-Kul was temporarily freshened between about AD 1500 and 1800 when an outflowing river existed, and thereafter, it became a closed lake in AD 1800 and continued to remain a saline lake until present. The chemical components that cause salinization are supplied from the rivers and groundwater in the catchment area, and when they flow into the lake, Ca2+, HCO3- and Mg2+ precipitate as CaCO3 and MgCO3. These compounds were confirmed to have been left on the lakeshore as evaporite. The model analysis showed that 1.67 mg/L of Ca2+ and Mg2+ supplied from rivers and groundwater are precipitated as evaporite and in other forms per year. On the other hand, salinity continues to remain in the lake water at a rate of 27.5 mg/L per year. These are the main causes of increased salinity in Lake Issyk-Kul. Since Na+ and Cl- are considered to be derived from geothermal water, they will continue to flow in regardless of the effects of human activities. Therefore, as long as these components are accumulated in Lake Issyk-Kul as a closed lake, the salinity will continue to increase in the future.

Key words： groundwater      geothermal water      mass balance      salinity      saline lake      L-Q curve     
Received: 26 August 2021      Published: 10 December 2021
Corresponding Authors: *Kei SAITOH (E-mail: saitoh.k@bep.vgs.kyoto-u.ac.jp)
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Kei SAITOH
Rysbek SATYLKANOV
Kenji OKUBO
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Kei SAITOH, Rysbek SATYLKANOV, Kenji OKUBO. Mass balance of saline lakes considering inflow loads of rivers and groundwater: the case of Lake Issyk- Kul, Central Asia. Journal of Arid Land, 2021, 13(12): 1260-1273.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-021-0026-0     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2021/V13/I12/1260

Fig. 1 Study area of Lake Issyk-Kul and survey sites of water samples during the period 2012-2015 (Adapted and modified from Saitoh (2019), and Saitoh and Kodera (2019))
Fig. 2 Overview of the tank model. P, precipitation; E, evaporation; hi is the water depth in the tank (storage height; mm); zi is the height to the side hole (mm); ii and qi are the leachate and discharge (mm/d), respectively.
Fig. 3 Correlation between loads and flows in three (Ka-dzhi-Say, Cholpon-Ata and Karakol) catchment rivers. Original correlation (a) when exponent p is 1 (b).
Fig. 4 Variation in the major chemical components in Lake Issyk-Kul over time (Adapted and modified from Saitoh (2019)). HCO3- from 1986 to 2007 is based on conversion from alkalinity. Upper indicates the surface layer of the lake, and lower indicates the deep water layer of the lake.
Fig. 5 Changes of water level in Lake Issyk-Kul over the past 700 a (Adapted and modified from Romanovsky et al. (2002); Fukushima (2006); Narama (2012); Romanovsky et al. (2013))
Parameter TDS Na+ K+ Ca2+ Mg2+ Cl- HCO3- SO42 -
k (m3/s) 159.000 4.62 1.41 32.100 3.54 3.39 89.000 19.800
γ (m3/s) 143.025 1266.82 130.15 12.273 281.55 1926.95 9.778 399.555
Table 1 Numerical values of parameters used in the L-Q curve
Index Unit Kadzhi-Say
(South)		 Cholpon-Ata
(North)		 Karakol
(East)		 Lake Issyk-Kul
(Estimation)		 Lake Issyk-Kul
Drainage area km2 6272 3925 5608 - 6236
Precipitation mm/a 387 424 306 279 280
Evaporation mm/a 894 749 823 822 814
River water km3/a 0.55 0.38 0.41 1.34 1.30
Groundwater km3/a 0.82 0.51 0.74 2.07 2.06
rE=ΣE/ΣP 2.31 1.77 2.69 2.94 2.91
rG=ΣQg/ΣQr 1.49 1.35 1.80 1.55 1.59
TDS loads t/a 18,777,919 11,757,177 16,778,616 47,313,711 -
Na+ loads t/a 4,816,807 3,014,545 4,306,999 12,138,351 -
K+ loads t/a 151,817 95,060 135,642 382,519 -
Ca2+ loads t/a 332,681 209,352 294,866 836,899 -
Mg2+ loads t/a 821,432 514,186 734,260 2,069,877 -
Cl- loads t/a 5,369,811 3,360,571 4,801,622 13,532,004 -
HCO3- loads t/a 764,929 481,996 676,536 1,923,461 -
SO42 - loads t/a 6,520,286 4,081,152 5,829,042 16,430,480 -
ΔH mm/a 218 227 205 107 110
ΔTDS g/m3 10.80 6.80 9.70 27.20 27.50
ΔNa+ g/m3 2.77 1.73 2.48 6.98 6.62
ΔK+ g/m3 0.09 0.05 0.08 0.22 -
ΔCa2+ g/m3 0.19 0.12 0.17 0.48 -0.24
ΔMg2+ g/m3 0.47 0.30 0.42 1.19 -0.23
ΔCl- g/m3 3.09 1.93 2.76 7.79 8.08
ΔHCO3- g/m3 0.44 0.28 0.39 1.11 8.56
ΔSO42 - g/m3 3.75 2.35 3.35 9.45 4.27
Table 2 Influent river and groundwater loads and water balance of Lake Issyk-Kul
Fig. 6 (a), evaporite found along the southern coast of Lake Issyk-Kul (photo by the author, August 2018); (b and c), energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy measurement of a rock-cut surface (courtesy of Dr. Tomokazu HOKADA, National Institute of Polar Research, Japan). In Figure 6b and c, cps (eV) is the counts of eV per second, eV is the energy, and k is the kilo.
No. Area
(km2)		 Date
(yyyy-mm-dd)		 Time
(LST)		 Na+
(mg/L)		 K+
(mg/L)		 Ca2+
(mg/L)		 Mg2+
(mg/L)		 Cl-
(mg/L)		 HCO3-
(mg/L)		 SO42 -
(mg/L)		 NO3-
(mg/L)		 TDS
(mg/L)
R1 2.56 2012-08-31 09:53 9.11 1.98 47.9 5.56 4.51 145.0 22.6 1.17 238.0
R2 13.60 2012-08-31 10:12 6.86 2.03 41.3 4.46 4.13 119.0 20.4 - 199.0
R3 10.70 2012-08-31 11:30 1.48 1.07 19.1 1.62 1.02 56.8 4.8 1.88 87.8
R5 49.00 2012-08-31 17:30 3.72 1.22 27.2 2.61 1.98 78.1 12.1 2.19 129.0
R11 59.90 2012-08-31 18:27 4.16 0.84 22.2 2.90 1.71 65.1 14.5 1.40 113.0
R13 1207.00 2012-08-31 19:00 8.87 1.04 53.2 6.17 5.99 153.0 28.5 1.92 259.0
R14 2147.00 2012-08-31 19:30 7.12 1.59 39.4 4.19 4.59 112.0 20.4 2.64 192.0
R16 394.00 2012-09-02 11:55 1.07 0.68 12.6 1.18 1.08 23.4 15.9 1.80 57.7
R17 497.00 2012-09-02 13:20 1.33 0.70 14.9 1.71 1.27 31.8 13.7 1.80 67.1
R18 548.00 2012-09-02 15:50 2.33 0.97 27.0 3.75 1.73 56.1 23.2 1.66 117.0
R19 627.00 2012-09-02 17:10 2.33 1.51 31.9 5.18 1.97 71.0 45.7 2.03 162.0
R21 146.00 2012-09-03 08:45 1.96 0.76 27.1 4.35 1.54 69.3 33.0 1.91 140.0
R23 324.00 2012-09-03 09:10 4.84 1.32 25.2 2.78 3.70 68.3 28.8 1.21 136.0
R24 805.00 2012-09-03 11:45 5.44 1.93 40.2 5.36 3.35 119.0 20.1 2.99 199.0
R27 592.00 2012-09-03 12:45 5.40 1.37 36.4 7.18 4.11 103.0 30.4 - 187.0
R1 2.56 2013-08-24 09:20 8.41 1.76 41.6 5.37 3.91 121.0 32.4 0.65 215.0
R4 31.20 2013-08-26 14:00 4.87 1.47 24.0 2.90 3.45 68.8 18.9 2.41 127.0
R5 49.00 2013-08-26 14:30 2.60 1.16 20.5 1.69 1.38 58.6 11.3 1.90 99.1
R7 371.00 2013-08-26 14:50 2.63 1.11 21.7 1.77 1.37 64.7 11.5 2.15 107.0
R11 59.90 2013-08-26 15:40 3.90 1.29 25.8 3.73 1.52 73.2 26.9 1.15 138.0
G2 - 2013-08-26 16:00 36.40 1.93 43.1 6.38 29.00 127.0 49.2 5.94 299.0
R13 1207.00 2013-08-26 16:30 8.49 1.58 52.9 6.58 6.34 149.0 33.0 1.50 259.0
G4 - 2013-08-26 17:40 48.70 20.30 81.3 41.9 54.4 215.0 180.0 104.00 746.0
R14 2147.00 2013-08-26 19:20 5.32 1.38 34.1 3.85 3.69 101.0 19.4 2.50 172.0
R16 394.00 2013-08-27 12:00 2.15 1.37 25.4 2.71 1.19 75.9 18.7 1.97 129.0
R17 497.00 2013-08-27 12:45 5.83 1.14 28.4 3.45 8.92 82.0 18.2 2.05 150.0
R18 548.00 2013-08-27 13:15 2.78 1.22 29.9 4.05 2.05 83.9 24.8 2.13 151.0
R19 627.00 2013-08-27 13:40 3.19 1.37 39.0 7.18 2.78 90.9 53.3 2.81 201.0
R21 146.00 2013-08-27 15:00 2.53 1.10 19.7 1.90 2.01 59.0 6.1 2.21 94.4
R23 324.00 2013-08-28 09:15 4.86 1.80 26.8 3.23 3.15 76.9 17.2 2.14 136.0
R24 805.00 2013-08-30 07:20 4.35 1.59 33.5 4.84 2.52 92.5 27.1 3.00 170.0
R27 592.00 2013-08-30 08:30 9.40 2.52 59.5 13.3 7.33 175.0 53.2 1.48 321.0
R0 0.78 2014-08-21 10:15 43.30 3.72 117.0 15.5 39.60 322.0 96.5 24.40 661.0
R4 31.20 2014-08-22 10:00 7.96 1.73 35.2 3.02 5.52 102.0 15.7 2.45 173.0
R5 49.00 2014-08-22 10:27 3.10 1.40 28.2 1.72 1.75 78.5 17.7 2.97 135.0
R6 371.00 2014-08-22 10:40 3.72 1.71 28.6 1.80 4.84 76.8 19.5 3.08 140.0
R7 371.00 2014-08-22 11:00 3.67 1.13 28.7 2.31 2.18 80.3 15.1 3.75 137.0
R11 59.90 2014-08-22 11:50 8.89 1.61 49.2 4.86 5.73 142.0 27.0 2.60 242.0
G2 2014-08-22 12:00 38.00 1.72 50.2 5.74 30.20 150.0 37.6 6.09 320.0
R13 1207.00 2014-08-22 12:20 14.10 1.58 61.5 7.24 10.00 168.0 43.1 2.51 308.0
R14 2147.00 2014-08-22 12:55 10.80 1.55 51.5 4.26 6.67 153.0 30.3 3.36 262.0
R16 394.00 2014-08-23 10:15 2.18 1.35 29.5 2.27 1.17 70.4 20.5 2.65 130.0
No. Area
(km2)		 Date
(yyyy-mm-dd)		 Time
(LST)		 Na+
(mg/L)		 K+
(mg/L)		 Ca2+
(mg/L)		 Mg2+
(mg/L)		 Cl-
(mg/L)		 HCO3-
(mg/L)		 SO42 -
(mg/L)		 NO3-
(mg/L)		 TDS
(mg/L)
R18 548.00 2014-08-24 11:15 3.46 1.44 38.3 3.58 2.67 84.7 31.1 2.62 168.0
R19 627.00 2014-08-24 11:45 4.23 1.65 49.9 6.06 3.83 101.0 54.5 2.10 223.0
R21 146.00 2014-08-24 12:35 3.09 1.09 40.2 5.45 2.14 90.6 42.4 3.36 188.0
R22 145.00 2014-08-24 12:50 4.28 1.81 35.9 3.02 2.69 109.0 9.9 3.30 170.0
R23 324.00 2014-08-24 13:10 9.12 2.26 39.3 3.51 6.72 124.0 11.3 3.51 199.0
R26 725.00 2014-08-24 14:10 13.80 3.93 71.0 12.7 11.20 192.0 58.4 6.56 370.0
R27 592.00 2014-08-24 15:40 9.79 3.59 56.1 8.35 5.59 169.0 32.8 13.80 299.0
R4 31.20 2015-08-22 10:02 4.00 1.70 30.3 4.87 6.14 83.5 16.9 1.99 149.0
R5 49.00 2015-08-22 10:15 3.14 1.27 24.6 3.27 1.01 86.5 5.6 1.80 127.0
R6 371.00 2015-08-22 10:33 4.57 0.95 19.9 2.60 2.19 70.2 6.8 1.82 109.0
R7 371.00 2015-08-22 10:55 3.38 1.52 22.9 2.42 1.85 62.8 16.7 1.82 113.0
R8 231.00 2015-08-22 11:08 2.55 1.21 21.1 1.92 1.78 58.4 14.7 2.08 104.0
R9 111.00 2015-08-22 11:27 3.23 1.14 21.9 2.80 1.42 64.6 13.9 1.91 111.0
R10 97.10 2015-08-22 11:52 1.64 0.51 19.4 2.20 1.86 60.5 9.1 1.76 97.0
R11 59.90 2015-08-22 12:06 3.23 0.84 24.1 3.37 1.72 78.3 11.1 1.37 124.0
G2 2015-08-22 12:36 44.40 2.08 41.3 7.26 15.50 184.0 31.4 5.43 331.0
R12 67.70 2015-08-22 12:46 3.80 0.70 19.5 1.78 2.34 64.5 4.1 1.70 98.3
R13 1207.00 2015-08-22 13:07 13.50 1.66 52.7 7.19 11.20 193.0 37.2 1.08 318.0
R14 2147.00 2015-08-22 14:03 6.69 0.70 33.7 3.45 9.37 99.6 19.5 0.91 174.0
G7 2015-08-23 11:47 24.60 0.23 88.3 13.00 25.80 243.0 57.9 0.00 452.0
G6 2015-08-23 12:00 29.10 0.64 43.5 7.39 23.30 167.0 36.9 5.98 314.0
G3 2015-08-23 14:33 12.60 0.11 40.4 4.32 7.66 119.0 21.8 3.77 210.0
G5 2015-08-23 14:56 151.00 16.60 90.0 24.40 125.00 237.0 227.0 0.00 871.0
G4 2015-08-23 15:20 69.30 10.40 160.0 48.30 91.20 323.0 204.0 201.00 1107.0
R15 138.00 2015-08-23 15:42 13.20 5.14 61.6 10.60 8.22 230.0 34.1 3.59 366.0
G9 2015-08-25 11:11 7.52 1.16 33.4 0.02 4.07 84.3 24.4 2.10 157.0
G8 2015-08-25 11:37 13.00 1.85 71.0 9.51 10.70 277.0 15.8 3.37 402.0
G10 2015-08-25 12:48 4.57 0.59 50.7 3.21 4.10 152.0 10.9 1.17 227.0
G11 2015-08-25 13:14 6.46 1.85 43.0 5.17 2.65 110.0 40.8 1.55 211.0
G12 2015-08-25 13:32 119.00 0.46 16.1 0.50 73.30 94.0 116.0 0.00 420.0
R16 394.00 2015-08-26 09:15 2.39 1.42 14.0 3.05 2.46 32.4 20.9 1.61 783.0
G13 2015-08-26 10:00 3265.00 45.00 1977.0 0.00 7898.00 19.7 723.0 1122.00 15,050.0
R17 497.00 2015-08-26 10:45 7.86 1.38 25.6 4.61 11.50 65.0 20.8 1.21 138.0
R18 548.00 2015-08-26 11:05 2.80 1.19 29.8 4.33 2.66 75.4 28.6 1.72 147.0
G14 2015-08-26 11:35 5.76 1.94 35.3 5.50 5.37 85.1 54.0 2.02 195.0
R20 102.00 2015-08-26 11:56 3.45 0.90 23.3 2.17 4.17 63.9 9.7 1.88 109.0
R21 146.00 2015-08-26 12:07 2.27 1.10 20.7 2.20 1.31 54.6 21.7 1.79 106.0
R22 145.00 2015-08-26 13:18 4.09 1.83 28.8 3.78 4.76 97.5 8.7 2.10 152.0
G15 2015-08-26 13:37 39.50 4.30 84.1 16.00 67.30 253.0 47.2 5.85 517.0
R23 324.00 2015-08-26 13:47 6.19 1.75 27.0 3.66 7.00 91.9 9.7 2.28 150.0
R24 805.00 2015-08-27 09:05 4.80 1.19 22.2 2.87 2.81 73.2 6.0 2.74 116.0
G16 2015-08-27 09:15 50.50 2.20 44.4 6.77 21.00 200.0 37.8 1.56 364.0
R25 805.00 2015-08-27 09:27 7.20 3.31 33.6 5.07 8.40 107.0 22.2 1.74 189.0
R26 725.00 2015-08-27 09:48 8.96 2.87 45.5 9.16 4.51 153.0 30.3 1.70 256.0
R27 592.00 2015-08-27 10:17 12.10 2.02 50.2 15.90 6.55 203.0 49.2 1.12 340.0
G1 2015-08-27 13:18 18.30 0.95 55.6 10.80 12.10 190.0 47.7 2.90 338.0
Table S1 Date and time of collection and data of for each site
Direction α1u α1l α2 α3 α4 β1 β2 β3
North 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.0000012 0.010 0.020 0.005
East 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.0000012 0.030 0.020 0.010
South 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.0000012 0.010 0.020 0.001
Table S2 Parameters used in the tank model
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