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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2023, Vol. 15 Issue (1): 91-108    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-022-0079-8
Research article     
Quantitative distinction of the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution in the Yellow River Basin of China during 1981-2019
LIU Yifeng1, GUO Bing1,2,3,4,5,*(), LU Miao6,*(), ZANG Wenqian4,7, YU Tao4,7,8, CHEN Donghua8
1School of Civil Architectural Engineering, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, China
2Key Laboratory of Urban Land Resources Monitoring and Simulation, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shenzhen 518000, China
3Key Laboratory of National Geographic Census and Monitoring, Ministry of Natural Resources, Wuhan 430072, China
4Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
5State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
6Key Laboratory of Agricultural Remote Sensing, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
7Zhongke Langfang Institute of Spatial Information Applications, Langfang 065000, China
8College of Computer and Information Engineering, Chuzhou University, Chuzhou 239000, China
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Abstract  

Under the combined influence of climate change and human activities, vegetation ecosystem has undergone profound changes. It can be seen that there are obvious differences in the evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of vegetation ecosystem in different historical periods. Therefore, it is urgent to identify and reveal the dominant factors and their contribution rates in the vegetation change cycle. Based on the data of climate elements (sunshine hours, precipitation and temperature), human activities (population intensity and GDP intensity) and other natural factors (altitude, slope and aspect), this study explored the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1989 to 2019 through a residual method, a trend analysis, and a gravity center model, and quantitatively distinguished the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution based on Geodetector model. The results showed that the spatial distribution of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. During 1981-2019, the temporal variation of vegetation NDVI showed an overall increasing trend. The gravity centers of average vegetation NDVI during the study period was distributed in Zhenyuan County, Gansu Province, and the center moved northeastwards from 1981 to 2019. During 1981-2000 and 2001-2019, the proportion of vegetation restoration areas promoted by the combined action of climate change and human activities was the largest. During the study period (1981-2019), the dominant factors influencing vegetation NDVI shifted from natural factors to human activities. These results could provide decision support for the protection and restoration of vegetation ecosystem in the Yellow River Basin.

Key words： vegetation evolution      driving mechanisms      climate change      human activities      relative actions      Geodetector      Yellow River Basin     
Received: 05 July 2022      Published: 31 January 2023
Corresponding Authors: GUO Bing, LU Miao     E-mail: guobingjl@163.com;lumiao@caas.cn
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LIU Yifeng
GUO Bing
LU Miao
ZANG Wenqian
YU Tao
CHEN Donghua
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LIU Yifeng, GUO Bing, LU Miao, ZANG Wenqian, YU Tao, CHEN Donghua. Quantitative distinction of the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution in the Yellow River Basin of China during 1981-2019. Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(1): 91-108.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-022-0079-8     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2023/V15/I1/91

Fig. 1 Overview of the Yellow River Basin based on digital elevation model (DEM) data. (a), spatial distribution of meteorological stations; (b), spatial distribution of sampling points of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).
Vegetation evolution Scenario KC KH Contribution of climate change (%) Contribution of human activities
(%)
Vegetation restoration
(KA>0)		 1 >0 >0 Combined action Combined action
2 >0 <0 100.000 0.000
3 <0 >0 0.000 100.000
Vegetation degradation (KA<0) 4 <0 <0 Combined action Combined action
5 <0 >0 100.000 0.000
6 >0 <0 0.000 100.000
Table 1 Relative action distinctions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution
Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of average Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Yellow River Basin during 1981-2019
Change intensity Area (km2) Proportion (%)
Level Value
Intensive decrease -0.9 to -0.6 208.00 0.026
Moderate decrease -0.6 to -0.3 8533.00 1.072
Slight decrease -0.3-0.0 245,233.00 30.820
Slight increase 0.0-0.3 507,960.00 63.830
Moderate increase 0.3-0.6 33,741.00 4.240
Intensive increase 0.6-0.9 95.00 0.012
Table 2 Area proportions of different levels of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) change intensity in the Yellow River Basin during 1981-2019
Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of different levels of NDVI change intensity in the Yellow River Basin during 1981-2019
Fig. 4 Spatial distribution (a1, b1 and c1) and polar coordinates (a2, b2 and c2) of the gravity centers of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin at the 1-, 5- and 10-a scales during 1981-2019
Standard deviation elliptic parameter Time scale
1 a 5 a 10 a
Polar angle (°) 71.01 70.84 69.81
Polar diameter along the X axis (km) 0.07 0.04 0.03
Polar diameter along the Y axis (km) 0.24 0.20 0.18
Area of the standard deviation ellipse (km2) 494.14 251.76 169.62
Table 3 Standard deviation elliptic parameters of the gravity centers of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin during 1981-2019
Fig. 5 Migration trajectory of the gravity centers of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin at different time scales during 1981-2019. (a), 5-a scale; (b), 10-a scale; (c), 20-a scale.
Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of the correlation coefficient (R2) values between NDVIclimate and NDVIactural in the Yellow River Basin during 1981-2019. NDVIclimate is the predicted vegetation NDVI value by regression analysis, which is the action result of climate change; and NDVIactual is the observed vegetation NDVI value by remote sensing images, which is the result of the combined action of climate change and human activities.
Fig. 7 Relative action distinctions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution in the Yellow River Basin during 1981-2000. I, vegetation restoration promoted by the combined action of climate change and human activities; II, vegetation restoration promoted by climate change; III, vegetation restoration promoted by human activities; IV, vegetation degradation induced by the combined action of climate change and human activities; V, vegetation degradation induced by climate change; VI, vegetation degradation induced by human activities.
Fig. 8 Relative action distinctions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution in the Yellow River Basin during 2001-2019
Single factor q value
1990 2000 2010 2019
Altitude 0.512 0.514 0.557 0.467
Aspect 0.107 0.107 0.109 0.108
Slope 0.445 0.422 0.446 0.455
Population intensity 0.348 0.353 0.318 0.680
GDP intensity 0.334 0.341 0.330 0.692
Temperature 0.676 0.619 0.655 0.689
Precipitation 0.679 0.715 0.652 0.655
Sunshine hours 0.696 0.577 0.702 0.673
Table 4 Explanatory power of the single factor on vegetation evolution in the Yellow River Basin in different years from 1981 to 2019
Fig. 9 Factor interaction detection of vegetation NDVI changes in the Yellow River Basin in 1981 (a), 2000 (b), 2010 (c) and 2019 (d)
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