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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2024, Vol. 16 Issue (4): 461-482    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-024-0010-6     CSTR: 32276.14.s40333-024-0010-6
Research article     
Assessment of runoff changes in the sub-basin of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, China based on multiple methods
WANG Xingbo1, ZHANG Shuanghu1,*(), TIAN Yiman1,2
1Department of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
2College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
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Abstract  

Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff plays a pivotal role in water resource management and maintaining ecosystem integrity. This study considered six sub-basins in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, China, to reveal the trend of the runoff evolution and clarify the driving factors of the changes during 1956-2020. Linear regression, Mann-Kendall test, and sliding t-test were used to study the trend of the hydrometeorological elements, while cumulative distance level and ordered clustering methods were applied to identify mutation points. The contributions of climate change and human disturbance to runoff changes were quantitatively assessed using three methods, i.e., the rainfall-runoff relationship method, slope variation method, and variable infiltration capacity (Budyko) hypothesis method. Then, the availability and stability of the three methods were compared. The results showed that the runoff in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin exhibited a decreasing trend from 1956 to 2020, with an abrupt change in 1985. For attribution analysis, the runoff series could be divided into two phases, i.e., 1961-1985 (baseline period) and 1986-2020 (changing period); and it was found that the rainfall-runoff relationship method with precipitation as the representative of climate factors had limited usability compared with the other two methods, while the slope variation and Budyko hypothesis methods had highly consistent results. Different factors showed different effects in the sub-basins of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin. Moreover, human disturbance was the main factor that contributed to the runoff changes, accounting for 53.0%-82.0%; and the contribution of climate factors to the runoff change was 17.0%-47.0%, making it the secondary factor, in which precipitation was the most representative climate factor. These results provide insights into how climate and anthropogenic changes synergistically influence the runoff of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin.

Key words： economic belt      runoff change      influencing assessment      climate      human activities     
Received: 07 October 2023      Published: 30 April 2024
Corresponding Authors: *ZHANG Shuanghu (E-mail: zhangshh@iwhr.com)
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WANG Xingbo, ZHANG Shuanghu, TIAN Yiman. Assessment of runoff changes in the sub-basin of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, China based on multiple methods. Journal of Arid Land, 2024, 16(4): 461-482.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-024-0010-6     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2024/V16/I4/461

Fig. 1 Location and hydrological and meteorological stations of the study area
Fig. 2 Annual runoff trends of eight hydrological stations and surface precipitation in six sub-basins of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin. (a), UJR (upstream of the Jinsha River); (b), DJR (downstream of the Jinsha River); (c), MTR (Mintuo River); (d), JLR (Jialing River); (e), WR (Wujiang River); (f), main stream of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin. SG, Shigu; PS, Pingshan; GC, Gaochang; FS, Fushun; BB, Beibei; WL, Wulong; YC, Yichang; CT, Cuntan. The abbreviations are the same in the following figures.
Station Location Area (km2) Runoff Precipitation
Rate |Z| Rate |Z|
SG UJR 215,840 0.675 1.551 0.375 1.148
PS DJR 256,328 0.223 0.724 0.123 0.498
GC MTR 135,378 -0.935 1.563 0.561 0.191
FS 19,613 -0.212 1.303
BB JLR 160,927 -1.495 1.313 -0.443 0.638
WL WR 87,731 -0.290 0.250 -1.880 2.347*
CT Main stream 100,837 -2.073 0.645 -1.317 1.887
YC -1.430 0.408
Table 1 Mann-Kendall test results of runoff and precipitation
Fig. 3 Mutation test results of runoff. (a), cumulative anomalies of eight hydrological stations; (b), results of the Mann-Kendall test, the red points are intersection points of UF and UB (two statistic series curves); (c), ordered clustering method for the BB (Beibei) station, and the red point is the minimum Sn (total sum of squared deviation).
Fig. S1 Mann-Kendall mutation test results of runoff for eight hydrological stations. (a), SG (Shigu); (b), PS (Pingshan); (c), GC (Gaochang); (d), FS (Fushun); (e), BB (Beibei); (f), WL (Wulong); (g), CT (Cuntan); (h), YC (Yichang). The abbreviations are the same in the following figure.
Fig. S2 Runoff ordered clustering test results for eight hydrological stations. (a), SG; (b), PS;(c), GC; (d), FS; (e), BB; (f), WL; (g), CT; (h), YC. Sn is the total sum of squared deviation.
Station Cumulative anomaly method Mann-Kendall test Ordered clustering method
SG 1986#, 1997 1957, 1961, 1967, 1985# 1986#, 1988, 1997, 1960
PS 1997 1957, 1962, 1968, 1984#, 2012 2005, 1997, 1985#
GC 1993, 1968 1972, 1986#, 1992, 1993 2017, 1968
FS 1968 1959, 1966 1966, 2017
BB 1985# 1960, 1971, 1983# 1985#, 1990, 1993, 1968, 2018
WL 2002 2004, 2009, 2013, 2019 2019, 2002, 1985#, 1962
CT 1968, 2017 1957, 1961, 1969, 1986#, 1990, 2018 1968, 2017
YC 2000, 1968, 1993 1994, 1996, 2000, 2018 2019, 1968
Table 2 Summary of the three mutation test methods
Fig. 4 Morlet wavelet coefficients of runoff of eight hydrological stations. (a), PS; (b), SG; (c), GC; (d), FS; (e), BB; (f), WL; (g), CT; (h), YC. Red dotted box shows the first main period, and black dotted box shows the second main period.
Fig. 5 Wavelet variance curves and wavelet coefficient curves of precipitation in different main periods of UJR (a), DJR (b), MTR (c), JLR (d), WR (e), and main stream (f) of the upper reaches the Yangtze River basin. Red line is the real part curve of the first main period, and blue line corresponds to the second main period.
Fig. 6 Double mass curve between cumulative annual precipitation and annual runoff in JLR
Sub-basin Period Measured value
(×108 m3)		 Estimated value (×108 m3) Variation (×108 m3) Contribution (%)
Climate
factor		 Human activity Climate factor Human activity
UJR 1961-1985 414.70 - - - - -
1986-2020 518.86 530.97 116.27 -12.11 111.60 -11.60
DJR 1961-1985 1409.50 - - - - -
1986-2020 1445.93 1427.90 18.49 17.95 50.80 49.30
MTR 1961-1985 996.20 - - - - -
1986-2020 943.40 972.10 -24.10 -28.70 45.60 54.40
JLR 1961-1985 722.00 - - - - -
1986-2020 614.84 656.23 -65.77 -41.38 61.40 38.60
WR 1961-1985 512.20 - - - - -
1986-2020 471.38 483.62 -28.58 -12.24 70.00 30.00
Main stream 1961-1985 4404.60 - - - - -
1986-2020 4240.43 4053.37 -351.23 187.06 213.90 -113.90
Table 3 Contributions of climate factors and human activities to runoff
Sub-basin RSR (%) RSP (%) RSE (%) CP (%) CE (%) CC (%) CH (%)
UJR 0.09 0.06 0.02 70.92 -17.08 53.84 46.16
DJR 0.05 0.02 -0.01 46.76 21.84 68.60 31.40
MTR -0.05 -0.01 0.01 15.64 21.73 37.37 62.63
JLR -0.14 -0.04 0.03 26.60 19.76 46.36 53.64
WR -0.09 -0.03 -0.00 38.20 -1.44 36.76 63.24
Main stream -0.03 -0.01 -0.01 32.78 -15.10 17.68 82.32
Table 4 Slopes in R (runoff), P (precipitation), and E (evaporation), and the results of SCRCQ (slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity)
Sub-basin Aridity index εP εE ΔQc (m3) CC (%) CH (%)
Baseline period Changing period Baseline period Changing period Baseline period Changing period
UJR 1.99 1.70 0.14 0.20 -0.08 -0.11 8.58 42.08 57.92
DJR 1.12 1.06 0.47 0.51 -0.26 -0.28 24.43 67.11 32.89
MTR 0.79 0.83 0.79 0.74 -0.45 -0.42 -22.57 42.74 57.26
JLR 0.78 0.89 0.80 0.68 -0.46 -0.38 -41.16 38.40 61.60
WR 0.67 0.68 0.96 0.95 -0.56 -0.55 -14.65 35.91 64.09
Main stream 0.88 0.89 0.69 0.68 -0.39 -0.38 -69.16 25.67 74.33
Table 5 Parameter and result of Budyko hypothesis method
Fig. 7 Parameter sensitivity in Budyko hypothesis method of UJR (I), DJR (II), MTR (III), JLR (IV), WR (V), and main stream (VI) of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin. CC is the contribution of climate changes to runoff, and ω is the plant-available water coefficient.
Sub-basin Precipitation-runoff relationship SCRCQ Budyko hypothesis method
CC (%) CH (%) CC (%) CH (%) CC (%) CH (%)
UJR 111.60 -11.60 53.84 46.16 42.08 57.92
DJR 50.80 49.30 68.12 31.88 67.11 32.89
MTR 45.60 54.40 37.37 62.63 42.74 57.26
JLR 61.40 38.60 46.36 53.64 38.40 61.60
WR 70.00 30.00 36.76 63.24 35.91 64.09
Main stream 213.90 113.90 17.68 82.32 25.67 74.33
Table 6 Summary of the results of the three methods
Fig. 8 Boxplot graph of adaptation of slope variation method (a) and Budyko hypothesis method (b). CC is the contribution of climate factors to runoff. Boxes indicate the IQR (interquartile range, 75th to 25th of the data). The median value is shown as a line within the box; square is shown as mean; and black diamond is outlier. Whiskers extend to the most extreme value within 1.5×IQR.
Fig. 9 Relationship between precipitation and runoff in different periods. 1961-1985, baseline period; 1886-2020, changing period.
Fig. S3 Relationship between precipitation and runoff in different periods for five sub-basins. (a), UJR (upstream of the Jinsha River); (b), DJR (downstream of the Jinsha River); (c), MTR (Mintuo River); (d), WR, Wujiang River; (e), main stream of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin. 1961-1985, baseline period; 1886-2020, changing period.
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