Projection and reclassification of land use types in Lanzhou, Northwest China

doi:10.1016/j.jaridl.2026.01.005

Journal of Arid Land

2026, Vol. 18

Issue (1): 17-33 DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridl.2026.01.005 CSTR: 32276.14.JAL.20250315

Research article

Projection and reclassification of land use types in Lanzhou, Northwest China

ZHU Rong¹^,², JIANG Youyan³^,^*(

), LEI Runzhi³

¹Gansu Key Laboratory for Environmental Pollution Prediction and Control, College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
²Gansu Institute of Architectural Design and Research, Lanzhou 730020, China
³Lanzhou Regional Climate Center, Lanzhou 730020, China

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Abstract

Land use in arid and semi-arid regions has a substantial effect on climate, environment, and biodiversity, thereby projecting the spatiotemporal changes in land use and the subsequent effects. This study employed the locally calibrated Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model, which coupled system dynamics with cellular automata and integrated an artificial neural network algorithm and a roulette wheel selection mechanism. We projected future land use (2020-2100) dynamics of Lanzhou, a typical river valley city in Northwest China, under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The simulation results were validated and subsequently reclassified using the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) system to produce a dataset suitable for driving climatic and environmental models. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, urban and built-up land expanded consistently, whereas irrigated cropland and pasture as well as grassland contracted continuously. Conversely, the SSP5-8.5 scenario was characterized by a contraction of urban and built-up land, and relative stability of irrigated cropland and pasture as well as grassland. The SSP2-4.5 scenario presented a more complex trade-off, where urban and built-up land and grassland increased first and then decreased, whereas irrigated cropland and pasture followed an opposite trajectory. A significant inverse relationship between urban and built-up land and irrigated cropland and pasture was observed under all scenarios, underscoring the fundamental spatial competition that prevailed in this land-constrained valley city. Furthermore, the negative correlation of grassland with urban and built-up land, coupled with the positive correlation of grassland with irrigated cropland and pasture under both the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, indicated an evolution from broad confrontation to intricate internal trade-offs within the urban-agricultural-ecological system. This study underscored the critical influence of regional topographic and hydrological constraints on land-use evolution in arid regions, providing guidance for water resource management and ecosystem protection in Lanzhou, with applications for sustainable land-use planning in other arid and semi-arid river valley cities.

Key words： land use changes Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) arid and semi-arid regions Northwest China

Received: 15 July 2025 Published: 31 January 2026

Corresponding Authors: ^*JIANG Youyan (E-mail: jiangyouyan1981@163.com)

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Cite this article:

ZHU Rong, JIANG Youyan, LEI Runzhi. Projection and reclassification of land use types in Lanzhou, Northwest China. Journal of Arid Land, 2026, 18(1): 17-33.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1016/j.jaridl.2026.01.005 OR http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2026/V18/I1/17

Fig. 1 Location of Lanzhou City and overview of Lanzhou based on DEM (digital elevation model)

Table 1 Description of the driving factors of land use changes in Lanzhou

Fig. 2 Technology workflow used in this study. LUH2, Land Use Harmonization 2; IGBP, International Geosphere Biosphere Programme; FLUS, Future Land Use Simulation; SSP, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway.

Table 2 Reclassification of land use types in Lanzhou

Table 3 Mapping relationship between IGBP and LUCC classification in Lanzhou

Fig. 3 Land use distribution patterns in Lanzhou. (a), actual land use in 2015; (b), actual land use in 2020; (c), simulated land use in 2020 using the FLUS model.

Table 4 Transformation matrix of land use types between 2015 and 2020 (unit: km²)

Table 5 Estimated areas of various land use types in Lanzhou in the future under different SSP scenarios

Fig. 4 Land use demand in Lanzhou in the future under different SSP scenarios

Fig. 5 Spatial patterns of land use types in Lanzhou in 2030 under different SSP scenarios. (a), SSP1-2.6; (b), SSP2-4.5; (c), SSP5-8.5.

Fig. 6 Spatial patterns of land use types in Lanzhou in 2050 under different SSP scenarios. (a), SSP1-2.6; (b), SSP2-4.5; (c), SSP5-8.5.

Fig. 7 Spatial patterns of land use types in Lanzhou in 2100 under different SSP scenarios. (a), SSP1-2.6; (b), SSP2-4.5; (c), SSP5-8.5.


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