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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2024, Vol. 16 Issue (8): 1023-1043    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-024-0023-1     CSTR: 32276.14.s40333-024-0023-1
Research article     
Responses of runoff to changes in climate and human activities in the Liuhe River Basin, China
LI Mingqian1,2, WANG He1,*(), DU Wei3, GU Hongbiao4, ZHOU Fanchao5, CHI Baoming1
1School of Ecology and Environment, Institute of Disaster Prevention, Langfang 065201, China
2Hebei Key Laboratory of Resource and Environmental Disaster Mechanism and Risk Monitoring, Sanhe 065201, China
3Suzhou Qianxing Environmental Engineering Co., Ltd., Suzhou 215000, China
4College of Transportation Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 210000, China
5Tianjin North China Geological Exploration General Institute, Tianjin 300000, China
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Abstract  

Since the 1950s, numerous soil and water conservation measures have been implemented to control severe soil erosion in the Liuhe River Basin (LRB), China. While these measures have protected the upstream soil and water ecological environment, they have led to a sharp reduction in the downstream flow and the deterioration of the river ecological environment. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the impact of soil and water conservation measures on hydrological processes to assess long-term runoff changes. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models and sensitivity analyses based on the Budyko hypothesis, this study quantitatively evaluated the effects of climate change, direct water withdrawal, and soil and water conservation measures on runoff in the LRB during different periods, including different responses to runoff discharge, hydrological regime, and flood processes. The runoff series were divided into a baseline period (1956-1969) and two altered periods, i.e., period 1 (1970-1999) and period 2 (2000-2020). Human activities were the main cause of the decrease in runoff during the altered periods, contributing 86.03% (-29.61 mm), while the contribution of climate change was only 13.70% (-4.70 mm). The impact of climate change manifests as a decrease in flood volume caused by a reduction in precipitation during the flood season. Analysis of two flood cases indicated a 66.00%-84.00% reduction in basin runoff capacity due to soil and water conservation measures in the upstream area. Soil and water conservation measures reduced the peak flow and total flood volume in the upstream runoff area by 77.98% and 55.16%, respectively, even with nearly double the precipitation. The runoff coefficient in the reservoir area without soil and water conservation measures was 4.0 times that in the conservation area. These results contribute to the re-evaluation of soil and water conservation hydrological effects and provide important guidance for water resource planning and water conservation policy formulation in the LRB.

Key words： runoff      soil and water conservation      climate variability      flood      human activities      Liuhe River Basin     
Received: 20 April 2024      Published: 31 August 2024
Corresponding Authors: *WANG He (E-mail: whnuo2009@163.com)
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LI Mingqian
WANG He
DU Wei
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ZHOU Fanchao
CHI Baoming
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LI Mingqian, WANG He, DU Wei, GU Hongbiao, ZHOU Fanchao, CHI Baoming. Responses of runoff to changes in climate and human activities in the Liuhe River Basin, China. Journal of Arid Land, 2024, 16(8): 1023-1043.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-024-0023-1     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2024/V16/I8/1023

Fig. 1 Hydrological and meteorological stations, rainfall gauges, and reservoirs of the Liuhe River Basin (LRB)
Fig. 2 Basic framework of runoff change attribution analysis. P, precipitation; PET, potential evaporation; Q, runoff; SWAT, Soil and Water Assessment Tool. The abbreviations are the same in the following figures and tables.
Fig. 3 Time series (a1-a3), sequential cluster (b1-b3), and Pettitt test (PT) (c1-c3) of annual P, Q, and PET. Sn(τ) is the sum of squared deviations; Ut,n is the Mann-Whitney statistic; and α is the significance level.
Fig. 4 Verification of the break point's election using (a) double mass curve and (b) runoff coefficient
Variable BP
(1956-1970; n=15)
(mm)		 AP1 (1971-1999; n=29) AP2 (2000-2020; n=21) AP (1971-2020; n=50)
Mean (mm) Percentage (%) Mean (mm) Percentage (%) Mean (mm) Percentage (%)
P 469.92 476.04 1.30 444.66 -5.37 464.02 -2.25
PET 955.10 933.20 -2.29 936.52 -1.94 934.47 -2.16
Q 60.86 36.08 -40.72 11.29 -81.45 26.59 -56.32
Table 1 Changes of hydrometeorological variables in different periods
Fig. 5 Monthly changes of P (a), Q (b), and PET (c) in different periods
Fig. 6 Observed and simulated multi-year mean runoff and monthly runoff in baseline period (a and b), altered period 1 (c and d), and altered period 2 (e and f). NSE, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency; RSR, ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of the measured data; PBIAS, percent bias.
Fig. 7 Observed and simulated annual runoff and cumulative linear superposition of climate variability (ΔQc) and human activities (ΔQh) in different periods. The abbreviations are the same in the following figure.
Period ΔQ
(mm)		 SWAT model Budyko sensitivity analysis
ΔQc ΔQh ΔQc ΔQh
Mean
(mm)		 Percentage (%) Mean
(mm)		 Percentage (%) Mean
(mm)		 Percentage (%) Mean
(mm)		 Percentage (%)
AP1 -24.65 -3.19 12.94 -21.46 87.06 3.77 11.71 -28.42 88.29
AP2 -49.50 -6.12 12.36 -43.38 87.64 -3.78 12.00 -43.56 88.00
BP -34.31 -4.70 13.70 -29.61 86.30 -1.33 4.11 -32.90 95.89
Table 2 Relative impact of climate change and human activities on runoff based on the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and the Budyko sensitivity analysis
Fig. 8 Impact of human activities on runoff under different annual precipitation (a) and decades (b), quantification of interdecadal runoff change under human activities or climate change (c), and quantification of annual runoff change under human activities or climate change (d). IQR, interquartile range.
Fig. 9 Box plots of precipitation in the runoff-producing areas of the LRB during July in different periods
Fig. 10 Areas of soil and water conservation measures in the LRB during the ''ten-year management'' period
Fig. 11 Frequency distribution of monthly precipitation (a) and runoff (b) in different periods
Hydrological station Control area
(km2)		 Flood in 1963 Flood in 1994
Rainoff
(mm)		 Peak flow
(m3/s)		 Flood volume
(108 m3)		 Rainoff
(mm)		 Peak flow
(m3/s)		 Flood volume
(108 m3)
Shanjiazi 825 84.50 966 - 188.50 165 -
Baimiaozi 341 91.50 729 - 194.00 442 -
Shimenzi 2405 117.60 6780 - 213.60 1623 -
Naodehai 4051 105.17 8630 2.23 202.75 1900 1.00
Table 3 Comparison of flood characteristics before and after soil and water conservation measures in the LRB
Reservoir Control area (km2) Degree of soil and water conservation (%) Total reservoir
capacity (×104 m3)		 Increase in reservoir
capacity (×104 m3)		 Precipitation
(mm)		 Runoff coefficient
Zhaohubi 4.9 88 43.4 6.5 212 0.08
Woniushan 6.0 91 64.3 11.4 207 0.09
Hatu 6.6 0 132.4 62.8 240 0.40
Table 4 Hydrologic characteristics of three small reservoirs during the flood in 1994
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