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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2024, Vol. 16 Issue (2): 168-194    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-024-0092-1
Research article     
Runoff change in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1960 to 2020 and its driving factors
WANG Baoliang1, WANG Hongxiang1, JIAO Xuyang1, HUANG Lintong1, CHEN Hao1, GUO Wenxian2,*()
1School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China
2College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China
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Abstract  

Analysing runoff changes and how these are affected by climate change and human activities is deemed crucial to elucidate the ecological and hydrological response mechanisms of rivers. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration and the Range of Variability Approach (IHA-RVA) method, as well as the ecological indicator method, were employed to quantitatively assess the degree of hydrologic change and ecological response processes in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020. Using Budyko's water heat coupling balance theory, the relative contributions of various driving factors (such as precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and underlying surface) to runoff changes in the Yellow River Basin were quantitatively evaluated. The results show that the annual average runoff and precipitation in the Yellow River Basin had a downwards trend, whereas the potential evapotranspiration exhibited an upwards trend from 1960 to 2020. In approximately 1985, it was reported that the hydrological regime of the main stream underwent an abrupt change. The degree of hydrological change was observed to gradually increase from upstream to downstream, with a range of 34.00%-54.00%, all of which are moderate changes. However, significant differences have been noted among different ecological indicators, with a fluctuation index of 90.00% at the outlet of downstream hydrological stations, reaching a high level of change. After the mutation, the biodiversity index of flow in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River was generally lower than that in the base period. The research results also indicate that the driving factor for runoff changes in the upper reach of the Yellow River Basin is mainly precipitation, with a contribution rate of 39.31%-54.70%. Moreover, the driving factor for runoff changes in the middle and lower reaches is mainly human activities, having a contribution rate of 63.70%-84.37%. These results can serve as a basis to strengthen the protection and restoration efforts in the Yellow River Basin and further promote the rational development and use of water resources in the Yellow River.

Key words： Budyko theory      hydrological regime      attribution analysis      ecological responses      Yellow River      climate change      human activity      runoff     
Received: 31 July 2023      Published: 29 February 2024
Corresponding Authors: *GUO Wenxian (E-mail: z20211010124@stu.ncwu.edu.cn)
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WANG Baoliang
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WANG Baoliang, WANG Hongxiang, JIAO Xuyang, HUANG Lintong, CHEN Hao, GUO Wenxian. Runoff change in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1960 to 2020 and its driving factors. Journal of Arid Land, 2024, 16(2): 168-194.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-024-0092-1     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2024/V16/I2/168

Fig. 1 Location of the selected hydrological and meteorological stations in the Yellow River Basin in this study. DEM, digital elevation model.
Fig. 2 Inter-annual variation trend of precipitation in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020. (a), upper basin; (b), middle basin; (c), lower basin. The yellow line represents the value of precipitation; the red line represents the change trend of precipitation; the shadow represents the 95% confidence interval.
Location Average (mm) Maximum (mm) Minimum (mm) Standard deviation (mm) Coefficient of variation
Upper basin 352.3 511.2 245.5 42.5 0.12
Middle basin 444.2 602.3 313.6 53.4 0.12
Lower basin 564.2 1019.1 305.1 133.1 0.24
Table 1 Characteristic values of precipitation in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020
Fig. 3 Inter-annual variation trend of potential evapotranspiration in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020. (a), upper basin; (b), middle basin; (c), lower basin. The yellow line represents the value of potential evapotranspiration; the red line represents the change trend of potential evapotranspiration; the shadow represents the 95% confidence interval.
Location Average (mm) Maximum (mm) Minimum (mm) Standard deviation (mm) Coefficient of variation
Upper Basin 920.3 1029.2 878.5 25.6 0.03
Middle Basin 952.7 1011.4 907.6 22.2 0.02
Lower Basin 960.4 1054.3 851.1 37.5 0.04
Table 2 Characteristic values of potential evapotranspiration in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020
Fig. 4 Inter-annual variation trend of runoff at the six stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020. (a), Lanzhou Station; (b), Toudaoguai Station; (c), Longmen Station; (d), Xiaolangdi Station; (e), Huayuankou Station; (f), Lijin Station. The yellow line represents the value of runoff; the red line represents the change trend of runoff; the shadow represents the 95% confidence interval.
Hydrological station Average
(×108 m3)		 Maximum
(×108 m3)		 Minimum
(×108 m3)		 Standard deviation (mm) Coefficient of variation
Lanzhou Station 315.9 699.3 158.9 95.9 0.30
Toudaoguai Station 211.3 437.2 101.8 79.0 0.40
Longmen Station 252.7 539.4 132.7 88.0 0.30
Xiaolangdi Station 350.9 861.1 142.5 143.0 0.40
Huayuankou Station 322.2 716.5 135.1 125.0 0.40
Lijin Station 264.4 973.1 186.1 175.0 0.70
Table 3 Characteristic values of runoff at the six stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020
Fig. 5 Results of Mann-Kendall (MK) mutation test at the six stations in the Yellow River Basin during 1960-2020. (a), Lanzhou Station; (b), Taodaoguai Station; (c), Longmen Station; (d), Xiaolangdi Station; (e), Huayuankou Station; (f), Lijin Station. UF represents test statistic; UB represents the reverse sequence of test statistic.
Fig. 6 Results of Pettitt mutation test at the six stations in the Yellow River Basin during 1960-2020. (a), Lanzhou Station; (b), Taodaoguai Station; (c), Longmen Station; (d), Xiaolangdi Station; (e), Huayuankou Station; (f), Lijin Station.
Hydrological station Mutation year of annual average runoff
Mann-Kendall (MK) test Pettitt test Determined mutation year
Lanzhou Station 1984 1984 1984
Toudaoguai Station 1985 1985 1985
Longmen Station 1987 and 1989 1987 1987
Xiaolangdi Station 1984 1984 1984
Huayuankou Station 1986 1986 1986
Lijin Station 1985 1985 1985
Table 4 Annual average runoff mutation year in the Yellow River Basin during 1960-2020
Fig. 7 Change degree of the hydrological indicators of the Range of Variability Approach (RVA) at the six stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020. January-December represent the average flow of January-December; 1-d minimum flow-90-d minimum flow represent the average annual 1-d minimum flow-90-d minimum flow; 1-d maximum flow-90-d maximum flow represent the average annual 1-d maximum flow-90-d maximum flow; base flow represents the ratio of base flow to total flow; date minimum represents the occurrence time of minimum flow; date maximum represents the occurrence time of maximum flow; low pulse count represents low flow pulse count; low pulse duration represents low flow pulse duration; high pulse count represents high flow pulse count; high pulse duration represents high flow pulse duration; increase rate represents the average annual increase rate of flow; decrease rate represents the average annual decrease rate of flow; reversal represents the times of flow reversal in one year.
Hydrological station Hydrological indicator group of the Range of Variability Approach (RVA) Overall hydrological alteration
Group I Group II Group III Group IV Group V
Lanzhou Station 20 (L) 43 (M) 51 (M) 35 (M) 42 (M) 34 (M)
Toudaoguai Station 24 (L) 43 (M) 51 (M) 33 (L) 43 (M) 35 (M)
Longmen Station 38 (M) 40 (M) 24 (L) 34 (M) 35 (M) 37 (M)
Xiaolangdi Station 41 (M) 38 (M) 56 (M) 43 (M) 75 (H) 45 (M)
Huayuankou Station 45 (M) 51 (M) 35 (M) 54 (M) 84 (H) 51 (M)
Lijin Station 48 (M) 58 (M) 51 (M) 36 (M) 90 (H) 54 (M)
Table 5 Change degree of hydrological indicator group at the six stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020
Fig. 8 Inter-annual variation of biodiversity index (Shannon Index) of flow at the six stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020. (a), Lanzhou Station; (b), Toudaoguai Station; (c), Longmen Station; (d), Xiaolangdi Station; (e), Huayuankou Station; (f), Lijin Station. The dot represents the Shannon Index; the red line represents the change trend of the Shannon Index; the shadow represents the 95% confidence interval.
Hydrological station Time period R (mm) PRE (mm) PET (mm) y εPRE εPET εy
Lanzhou Station 1960-1984 16.10 361.26 919.44 2.34 3.17 -2.17 -3.00
1985-2020 12.67 346.85 921.02 2.42 3.27 -2.27 -3.20
Toudaoguai Station 1960-1985 60.54 361.26 919.44 1.35 2.09 -1.09 -1.93
1986-2020 57.44 346.85 920.34 1.36 2.20 -1.20 -2.10
Longmen Station 1960-1987 61.69 457.30 949.74 1.72 2.42 -1.42 -1.97
1988-2020 42.14 434.47 954.88 1.93 2.67 -1.67 -2.26
Xiaolangdi Station 1960-1985 58.09 457.30 949.74 1.74 2.54 -1.50 -2.07
1986-2020 37.15 434.47 954.88 2.02 2.82 -1.80 -2.39
Huayuankou Station 1960-1986 60.82 457.30 949.74 1.74 2.43 -1.43 -1.98
1987-2020 37.93 434.47 954.88 2.02 2.76 -1.76 -2.34
Lijin Station 1960-1985 51.42 515.04 954.37 2.19 2.85 -1.85 -2.09
1986-2020 22.24 496.18 958.18 2.94 3.69 -2.69 -2.75
Table 6 Hydrometeorological characteristics of the six stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020
Hydrological station ∆RPRE (mm) ∆RPET (mm) ∆RHA (mm) ηPRE (%) ηPET (%) ηHA (%)
Lanzhou Station -1.87 -0.05 -1.49 54.70 1.58 43.72
Toudaoguai Station -4.93 -0.11 -7.51 39.31 0.86 59.83
Longmen Station -6.63 -0.42 -12.38 34.13 2.17 63.70
Xiaolangdi Station -6.40 -0.41 -15.95 28.12 1.81 70.07
Huayuankou Station -5.04 -0.35 -15.04 24.67 1.75 73.58
Lijin Station -4.23 -0.32 -24.54 14.55 1.08 84.37
Table 7 Attribution analysis of runoff changes in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020
Fig. 9 Twofold cumulative curve of annual precipitation-runoff depth at the six stations in the Yellow River. (a), Lanzhou Station; (b), Toudaoguai Station; (c), Longmen Station; (d), Xiaolangdi Station; (e), Huayuankou Station; (f), Lijin Station.
Fig. 10 Twofold cumulative curve of annual potential evapotranspiration-runoff depth at the six stations in the Yellow River. (a), Lanzhou Station; (b), Toudaoguai Station; (c), Longmen Station; (d), Xiaolangdi Station; (e), Huayuankou Station; (f), Lijin Station.
Fig. 11 Correlation between climatic factors and runoff before (a) and after (b) abrupt change at the six stations in the Yellow River Basin. PRE, precipitation; PET, potential evapotranspiration; TEM, temperature.
Hydrological station Time period Correlation coefficient
Precipitation Potential evapotranspiration Temperature
Lanzhou Station 1960-1984 0.260 -0.090 -0.240
1985-2020 0.460** -0.010 -0.330
Toudaoguai Station 1960-1985 0.600** 0.003 0.030
1986-2020 0.400* -0.030 -0.330
Longmen Station 1960-1987 0.770** -0.260 -0.080
1988-2020 0.330 -0.110 -0.008
Xiaolangdi Station 1960-1985 0.760** -0.240 -0.140
1986-2020 0.450** -0.180 -0.020
Huayuankou Station 1960-1986 0.350 -0.170 0.140
1987-2020 0.150 -0.150 0.450**
Lijin Station 1960-1985 0.500** -0.240 0.090
1986-2020 0.370* -0.090 0.370*
Table 8 Correlation coefficient between climatic factors and runoff at the six stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020
Fig. 12 Schematic diagram of reservoirs in the Yellow River Basin
Fig. 13 Spatial distribution of land use types in the Yellow River Basin in 1980 (a), 1990 (b), 2000 (c), 2010 (d), and 2020 (e)
Fig. 14 Area of different land use types in the Yellow River Basin in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020
Land use type Area (×103 km2) Rate of area change (%)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Cultivated land 232.16 232.99 235.21 227.99 223.49 -0.90
Forest 115.03 115.11 115.02 118.33 118.44 0.43
Grassland 424.84 424.05 422.18 426.01 425.95 0.29
Water body 16.33 15.42 14.78 14.92 15.35 -0.11
Construction land 17.44 17.73 19.23 25.74 31.98 1.66
Barren land 77.02 77.51 76.39 69.60 64.70 -1.37
Table 9 Area change of different land use types in the Yellow River Basin from 1980 to 2020
Fig. 15 Land use transfer in the Yellow River Basin from 1980 to 2020. The line represents the conversion between two different land use types; the cusp represents the direction of land use transfer; the width of line represents the area of land use transfer.
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