Runoff change in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1960 to 2020 and its driving factors
WANG Baoliang1, WANG Hongxiang1, JIAO Xuyang1, HUANG Lintong1, CHEN Hao1, GUO Wenxian2,*()
1School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China 2College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Analysing runoff changes and how these are affected by climate change and human activities is deemed crucial to elucidate the ecological and hydrological response mechanisms of rivers. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration and the Range of Variability Approach (IHA-RVA) method, as well as the ecological indicator method, were employed to quantitatively assess the degree of hydrologic change and ecological response processes in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020. Using Budyko's water heat coupling balance theory, the relative contributions of various driving factors (such as precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and underlying surface) to runoff changes in the Yellow River Basin were quantitatively evaluated. The results show that the annual average runoff and precipitation in the Yellow River Basin had a downwards trend, whereas the potential evapotranspiration exhibited an upwards trend from 1960 to 2020. In approximately 1985, it was reported that the hydrological regime of the main stream underwent an abrupt change. The degree of hydrological change was observed to gradually increase from upstream to downstream, with a range of 34.00%-54.00%, all of which are moderate changes. However, significant differences have been noted among different ecological indicators, with a fluctuation index of 90.00% at the outlet of downstream hydrological stations, reaching a high level of change. After the mutation, the biodiversity index of flow in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River was generally lower than that in the base period. The research results also indicate that the driving factor for runoff changes in the upper reach of the Yellow River Basin is mainly precipitation, with a contribution rate of 39.31%-54.70%. Moreover, the driving factor for runoff changes in the middle and lower reaches is mainly human activities, having a contribution rate of 63.70%-84.37%. These results can serve as a basis to strengthen the protection and restoration efforts in the Yellow River Basin and further promote the rational development and use of water resources in the Yellow River.
WANG Baoliang, WANG Hongxiang, JIAO Xuyang, HUANG Lintong, CHEN Hao, GUO Wenxian. Runoff change in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1960 to 2020 and its driving factors. Journal of Arid Land, 2024, 16(2): 168-194.
Fig. 1Location of the selected hydrological and meteorological stations in the Yellow River Basin in this study. DEM, digital elevation model.
Fig. 2Inter-annual variation trend of precipitation in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020. (a), upper basin; (b), middle basin; (c), lower basin. The yellow line represents the value of precipitation; the red line represents the change trend of precipitation; the shadow represents the 95% confidence interval.
Location
Average (mm)
Maximum (mm)
Minimum (mm)
Standard deviation (mm)
Coefficient of variation
Upper basin
352.3
511.2
245.5
42.5
0.12
Middle basin
444.2
602.3
313.6
53.4
0.12
Lower basin
564.2
1019.1
305.1
133.1
0.24
Table 1 Characteristic values of precipitation in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020
Fig. 3Inter-annual variation trend of potential evapotranspiration in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020. (a), upper basin; (b), middle basin; (c), lower basin. The yellow line represents the value of potential evapotranspiration; the red line represents the change trend of potential evapotranspiration; the shadow represents the 95% confidence interval.
Location
Average (mm)
Maximum (mm)
Minimum (mm)
Standard deviation (mm)
Coefficient of variation
Upper Basin
920.3
1029.2
878.5
25.6
0.03
Middle Basin
952.7
1011.4
907.6
22.2
0.02
Lower Basin
960.4
1054.3
851.1
37.5
0.04
Table 2 Characteristic values of potential evapotranspiration in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020
Fig. 4Inter-annual variation trend of runoff at the six stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020. (a), Lanzhou Station; (b), Toudaoguai Station; (c), Longmen Station; (d), Xiaolangdi Station; (e), Huayuankou Station; (f), Lijin Station. The yellow line represents the value of runoff; the red line represents the change trend of runoff; the shadow represents the 95% confidence interval.
Hydrological station
Average (×108 m3)
Maximum (×108 m3)
Minimum (×108 m3)
Standard deviation (mm)
Coefficient of variation
Lanzhou Station
315.9
699.3
158.9
95.9
0.30
Toudaoguai Station
211.3
437.2
101.8
79.0
0.40
Longmen Station
252.7
539.4
132.7
88.0
0.30
Xiaolangdi Station
350.9
861.1
142.5
143.0
0.40
Huayuankou Station
322.2
716.5
135.1
125.0
0.40
Lijin Station
264.4
973.1
186.1
175.0
0.70
Table 3 Characteristic values of runoff at the six stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020
Fig. 5Results of Mann-Kendall (MK) mutation test at the six stations in the Yellow River Basin during 1960-2020. (a), Lanzhou Station; (b), Taodaoguai Station; (c), Longmen Station; (d), Xiaolangdi Station; (e), Huayuankou Station; (f), Lijin Station. UF represents test statistic; UB represents the reverse sequence of test statistic.
Fig. 6Results of Pettitt mutation test at the six stations in the Yellow River Basin during 1960-2020. (a), Lanzhou Station; (b), Taodaoguai Station; (c), Longmen Station; (d), Xiaolangdi Station; (e), Huayuankou Station; (f), Lijin Station.
Hydrological station
Mutation year of annual average runoff
Mann-Kendall (MK) test
Pettitt test
Determined mutation year
Lanzhou Station
1984
1984
1984
Toudaoguai Station
1985
1985
1985
Longmen Station
1987 and 1989
1987
1987
Xiaolangdi Station
1984
1984
1984
Huayuankou Station
1986
1986
1986
Lijin Station
1985
1985
1985
Table 4 Annual average runoff mutation year in the Yellow River Basin during 1960-2020
Fig. 7Change degree of the hydrological indicators of the Range of Variability Approach (RVA) at the six stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020. January-December represent the average flow of January-December; 1-d minimum flow-90-d minimum flow represent the average annual 1-d minimum flow-90-d minimum flow; 1-d maximum flow-90-d maximum flow represent the average annual 1-d maximum flow-90-d maximum flow; base flow represents the ratio of base flow to total flow; date minimum represents the occurrence time of minimum flow; date maximum represents the occurrence time of maximum flow; low pulse count represents low flow pulse count; low pulse duration represents low flow pulse duration; high pulse count represents high flow pulse count; high pulse duration represents high flow pulse duration; increase rate represents the average annual increase rate of flow; decrease rate represents the average annual decrease rate of flow; reversal represents the times of flow reversal in one year.
Hydrological station
Hydrological indicator group of the Range of Variability Approach (RVA)
Overall hydrological alteration
Group I
Group II
Group III
Group IV
Group V
Lanzhou Station
20 (L)
43 (M)
51 (M)
35 (M)
42 (M)
34 (M)
Toudaoguai Station
24 (L)
43 (M)
51 (M)
33 (L)
43 (M)
35 (M)
Longmen Station
38 (M)
40 (M)
24 (L)
34 (M)
35 (M)
37 (M)
Xiaolangdi Station
41 (M)
38 (M)
56 (M)
43 (M)
75 (H)
45 (M)
Huayuankou Station
45 (M)
51 (M)
35 (M)
54 (M)
84 (H)
51 (M)
Lijin Station
48 (M)
58 (M)
51 (M)
36 (M)
90 (H)
54 (M)
Table 5 Change degree of hydrological indicator group at the six stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020
Fig. 8Inter-annual variation of biodiversity index (Shannon Index) of flow at the six stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020. (a), Lanzhou Station; (b), Toudaoguai Station; (c), Longmen Station; (d), Xiaolangdi Station; (e), Huayuankou Station; (f), Lijin Station. The dot represents the Shannon Index; the red line represents the change trend of the Shannon Index; the shadow represents the 95% confidence interval.
Hydrological station
Time period
R (mm)
PRE (mm)
PET (mm)
y
εPRE
εPET
εy
Lanzhou Station
1960-1984
16.10
361.26
919.44
2.34
3.17
-2.17
-3.00
1985-2020
12.67
346.85
921.02
2.42
3.27
-2.27
-3.20
Toudaoguai Station
1960-1985
60.54
361.26
919.44
1.35
2.09
-1.09
-1.93
1986-2020
57.44
346.85
920.34
1.36
2.20
-1.20
-2.10
Longmen Station
1960-1987
61.69
457.30
949.74
1.72
2.42
-1.42
-1.97
1988-2020
42.14
434.47
954.88
1.93
2.67
-1.67
-2.26
Xiaolangdi Station
1960-1985
58.09
457.30
949.74
1.74
2.54
-1.50
-2.07
1986-2020
37.15
434.47
954.88
2.02
2.82
-1.80
-2.39
Huayuankou Station
1960-1986
60.82
457.30
949.74
1.74
2.43
-1.43
-1.98
1987-2020
37.93
434.47
954.88
2.02
2.76
-1.76
-2.34
Lijin Station
1960-1985
51.42
515.04
954.37
2.19
2.85
-1.85
-2.09
1986-2020
22.24
496.18
958.18
2.94
3.69
-2.69
-2.75
Table 6 Hydrometeorological characteristics of the six stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020
Hydrological station
∆RPRE (mm)
∆RPET (mm)
∆RHA (mm)
ηPRE (%)
ηPET (%)
ηHA (%)
Lanzhou Station
-1.87
-0.05
-1.49
54.70
1.58
43.72
Toudaoguai Station
-4.93
-0.11
-7.51
39.31
0.86
59.83
Longmen Station
-6.63
-0.42
-12.38
34.13
2.17
63.70
Xiaolangdi Station
-6.40
-0.41
-15.95
28.12
1.81
70.07
Huayuankou Station
-5.04
-0.35
-15.04
24.67
1.75
73.58
Lijin Station
-4.23
-0.32
-24.54
14.55
1.08
84.37
Table 7 Attribution analysis of runoff changes in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020
Fig. 9Twofold cumulative curve of annual precipitation-runoff depth at the six stations in the Yellow River. (a), Lanzhou Station; (b), Toudaoguai Station; (c), Longmen Station; (d), Xiaolangdi Station; (e), Huayuankou Station; (f), Lijin Station.
Fig. 10Twofold cumulative curve of annual potential evapotranspiration-runoff depth at the six stations in the Yellow River. (a), Lanzhou Station; (b), Toudaoguai Station; (c), Longmen Station; (d), Xiaolangdi Station; (e), Huayuankou Station; (f), Lijin Station.
Fig. 11Correlation between climatic factors and runoff before (a) and after (b) abrupt change at the six stations in the Yellow River Basin. PRE, precipitation; PET, potential evapotranspiration; TEM, temperature.
Hydrological station
Time period
Correlation coefficient
Precipitation
Potential evapotranspiration
Temperature
Lanzhou Station
1960-1984
0.260
-0.090
-0.240
1985-2020
0.460**
-0.010
-0.330
Toudaoguai Station
1960-1985
0.600**
0.003
0.030
1986-2020
0.400*
-0.030
-0.330
Longmen Station
1960-1987
0.770**
-0.260
-0.080
1988-2020
0.330
-0.110
-0.008
Xiaolangdi Station
1960-1985
0.760**
-0.240
-0.140
1986-2020
0.450**
-0.180
-0.020
Huayuankou Station
1960-1986
0.350
-0.170
0.140
1987-2020
0.150
-0.150
0.450**
Lijin Station
1960-1985
0.500**
-0.240
0.090
1986-2020
0.370*
-0.090
0.370*
Table 8 Correlation coefficient between climatic factors and runoff at the six stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020
Fig. 12Schematic diagram of reservoirs in the Yellow River Basin
Fig. 13Spatial distribution of land use types in the Yellow River Basin in 1980 (a), 1990 (b), 2000 (c), 2010 (d), and 2020 (e)
Fig. 14Area of different land use types in the Yellow River Basin in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020
Land use type
Area (×103 km2)
Rate of area change (%)
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Cultivated land
232.16
232.99
235.21
227.99
223.49
-0.90
Forest
115.03
115.11
115.02
118.33
118.44
0.43
Grassland
424.84
424.05
422.18
426.01
425.95
0.29
Water body
16.33
15.42
14.78
14.92
15.35
-0.11
Construction land
17.44
17.73
19.23
25.74
31.98
1.66
Barren land
77.02
77.51
76.39
69.60
64.70
-1.37
Table 9 Area change of different land use types in the Yellow River Basin from 1980 to 2020
Fig. 15Land use transfer in the Yellow River Basin from 1980 to 2020. The line represents the conversion between two different land use types; the cusp represents the direction of land use transfer; the width of line represents the area of land use transfer.
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