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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2024, Vol. 16 Issue (10): 1380-1408    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-024-0062-7     CSTR: 32276.14.s40333-024-0062-7
Research article     
Predicting changes in the suitable habitats of six halophytic plant species in the arid areas of Northwest China
YANG Ao1,2,3,4, TU Wenqin5, YIN Benfeng2,3,4, ZHANG Shujun2,3,4,6, ZHANG Xinyu7, ZHANG Qing2,3,4,8, HUANG Yunjie2,3,4,6, HAN Zhili2,3,4,9, YANG Ziyue1,2,3,10, ZHOU Xiaobing2,3,4, ZHUANG Weiwei1,*(), ZHANG Yuanming2,3,4
1College of Life Sciences, Xinjiang Normal University/Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Special Species Conservation and Regulatory Biology/Key Laboratory of Special Environment Biodiversity Application and Regulation in Xinjiang/Key Laboratory of Plant Stress Biology in Arid Land, Urumqi 830054, China
2State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
3Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Biodiversity Conservation and Application in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
4Xinjiang Field Scientific Observation Research Station of Tianshan Wild Fruit Forest Ecosystem, Yili Botanical Garden, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xinyuan 835800, China
5State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
6University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
7College of Biological Sciences, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA
8College of Ecology and Environment, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
9College of Resources and Environment/Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Soil and Plant Ecological Processes, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
10College of Grassland Science, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
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Abstract  

In the context of changes in global climate and land uses, biodiversity patterns and plant species distributions have been significantly affected. Soil salinization is a growing problem, particularly in the arid areas of Northwest China. Halophytes are ideal for restoring soil salinization because of their adaptability to salt stress. In this study, we collected the current and future bioclimatic data released by the WorldClim database, along with soil data from the Harmonized World Soil Database (v1.2) and A Big Earth Data Platform for Three Poles. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, the potential suitable habitats of six halophytic plant species (Halostachys caspica (Bieb.) C. A. Mey., Halogeton glomeratus (Bieb.) C. A. Mey., Kalidium foliatum (Pall.) Moq., Halocnemum strobilaceum (Pall.) Bieb., Salicornia europaea L., and Suaeda salsa (L.) Pall.) were assessed under the current climate conditions (average for 1970-2000) and future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585, where SSP is the Shared Socio-economic Pathway). The results revealed that all six halophytic plant species exhibited the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values higher than 0.80 based on the MaxEnt model, indicating the excellent performance of the MaxEnt model. The suitability of the six halophytic plant species significantly varied across regions in the arid areas of Northwest China. Under different future climate change scenarios, the suitable habitat areas for the six halophytic plant species are expected to increase or decrease to varying degrees. As global warming progresses, the suitable habitat areas of K. foliatum, S. salsa, and H. strobilaceum exhibited an increasing trend. In contrast, the suitable habitat areas of H. glomeratus, S. europaea, and H. caspica showed an opposite trend. Furthermore, considering the ongoing global warming trend, the centroids of the suitable habitat areas for various halophytic plant species would migrate to different degrees, and four halophytic plant species, namely, S. salsa, H. strobilaceum, H. glomeratus, and H. capsica, would migrate to higher latitudes. Temperature, precipitation, and soil factors affected the possible distribution ranges of these six halophytic plant species. Among them, precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation), precipitation of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, and exchangeable Na+ significantly affected the distribution of halophytic plant species. Our findings are critical to comprehending and predicting the impact of climate change on ecosystems. The findings of this study hold significant theoretical and practical implications for the management of soil salinization and for the utilization, protection, and management of halophytes in the arid areas of Northwest China.

Key words： halophytes      climate change      global warming      maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model      soil salinization      suitable habitats      Northwest China     
Received: 18 March 2024      Published: 31 October 2024
Corresponding Authors: * ZHUANG Weiwei (E-mail: zww8611@sina.com)
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The first, second, and third authors contributed equally to this work.
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YANG Ao
TU Wenqin
YIN Benfeng
ZHANG Shujun
ZHANG Xinyu
ZHANG Qing
HUANG Yunjie
HAN Zhili
YANG Ziyue
ZHOU Xiaobing
ZHUANG Weiwei
ZHANG Yuanming
Cite this article:

YANG Ao, TU Wenqin, YIN Benfeng, ZHANG Shujun, ZHANG Xinyu, ZHANG Qing, HUANG Yunjie, HAN Zhili, YANG Ziyue, ZHOU Xiaobing, ZHUANG Weiwei, ZHANG Yuanming. Predicting changes in the suitable habitats of six halophytic plant species in the arid areas of Northwest China. Journal of Arid Land, 2024, 16(10): 1380-1408.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-024-0062-7     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2024/V16/I10/1380

Fig. 1 Overview of the study area based on the digital elevation model (DEM) and distribution points of six halophytic plant species (Halostachys caspica (Bieb.) C. A. Mey., Halogeton glomeratus (Bieb.) C. A. Mey., Kalidium foliatum (Pall.) Moq., Halocnemum strobilaceum (Pall.) Bieb., Salicornia europaea L., and Suaeda salsa (L.) Pall.) in the arid areas of Northwest China. The DEM data were obtained from the Hydrological data and maps based on SHuttle Elevation Derivatives at multiple Scales (HydroSHEDS; https://hydrosheds.org/downloads). Note that the figure is based on the standard map (GS(2023)2767) of the Map Service System (http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/) marked by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, and the boundary of the standard map has not been modified.
Fig. 2 Pearson's correlation analysis of the 16 selected environmental variables. AN, available nitrogen; BS, soil base saturation; CaCO3, soil calcium carbonate; CEC_SOIL, cation exchange capacity; ECE, electrical conductivity; Na, exchangeable Na+; pH, acidity and basicity; POR, porosity; TEB, soil exchangeable base; Bio2, mean diurnal range; Bio7, temperature annual range; Bio10, mean temperature of the warmest quarter; Bio11, mean temperature of the coldest quarter; Bio15, precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation); Bio18, precipitation of the warmest quarter; Bio19, precipitation of the coldest quarter.
Species AUC
1970-2000 SSP245 SSP585
2050s 2070s 2090s 2050s 2070s 2090s
S. salsa 0.85±0.05 0.85±0.03 0.85±0.05 0.84±0.07 0.83±0.04 0.84±0.04 0.83±0.04
S. europaea 0.83±0.05 0.83±0.05 0.82±0.04 0.82±0.03 0.80±0.05 0.83±0.06 0.83±0.04
H. glomeratus 0.89±0.02 0.89±0.02 0.89±0.03 0.89±0.03 0.88±0.02 0.89±0.03 0.89±0.03
H. strobilaceum 0.91±0.02 0.92±0.03 0.94±0.03 0.92±0.03 0.93±0.03 0.93±0.02 0.93±0.03
K. foliatum 0.83±0.01 0.85±0.03 0.83±0.03 0.83±0.03 0.83±0.02 0.84±0.02 0.82±0.02
H. caspica 0.84±0.02 0.86±0.02 0.86±0.02 0.85±0.02 0.86±0.01 0.86±0.02 0.85±0.02
Table 1 Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of six halophytic plant species under the current climate conditions and future climate scenarios based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model
Fig. 3 Contribution rates of the selected 16 environmental variables to the distribution of six halophytic plant species based on the Jackknife test. (a), S. salsa; (b), S. europaea; (c), H. strobilaceum; (d), H. glomeratus; (e), H. capsica; (f), K. foliatum.
Fig. 4 Predicted current distribution ranges and changes in the centroid distribution of six halophytic plant species in the future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) under two climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) in the arid areas of Northwest China. (a), S. salsa; (b), S. europaea; (c), H. strobilaceum; (d), H. glomeratus; (e), H. capsica; (f), K. foliatum. SSP, Shared Socio-economic Pathway. Note that the figures are based on the standard map (GS(2023)2767) of the Map Service System (http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/) marked by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, and the boundary of the standard map has not been modified.
Species Change rate of the suitable habitat area (%)
SSP245 SSP585
2050s 2070s 2090s 2050s 2070s 2090s
S. salsa -0.85 8.63 11.95 16.11 6.73 6.90
S. europaea -9.00 0.54 0.43 -9.18 -2.21 1.79
H. strobilaceum -10.72 4.16 -4.01 6.20 5.57 6.67
H. glomeratus -12.53 -10.56 -13.95 -12.89 -15.30 -4.61
H. caspica 2.56 -1.29 -3.82 2.87 -4.66 2.94
K. foliatum 3.35 1.40 5.95 3.60 6.27 2.14
Table 2 Change rates of the suitable habitat area for the six halophytic plant species in the future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) under two climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) compared to the current conditions
Fig. 5 Distribution change areas of the suitable habitats for the six halophytic plant species in the future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) under two climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) compared to the current conditions. (a), S. salsa; (b), S. europaea; (c), H. strobilaceum; (d), H. glomeratus; (e), H. capsica; (f), K. foliatum.
Fig. 6 Potential suitable habitats (a1, a2, a3, a4, a5, and a6) and changes in the distribution ranges (b1, b2, b3, b4, b5, and b6) of S. salsa in the future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) under two climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) compared to its current distribution in the arid areas of Northwest China. Note that the figures are based on the standard map (GS(2023)2767) of the Map Service System (http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/) marked by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, and the boundary of the standard map has not been modified.
Fig. 7 Potential suitable habitats (a1, a2, a3, a4, a5, and a6) and changes in the distribution range (b1, b2, b3, b4, b5, and b6) of S. europaea in the future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) under two climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) compared to its current distribution in the arid areas of Northwest China. Note that the figures are based on the standard map (GS(2023)2767) of the Map Service System (http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/) marked by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, and the boundary of the standard map has not been modified.
Fig. 8 Potential suitable habitats (a1, a2, a3, a4, a5, and a6) and changes in the distribution range (b1, b2, b3, b4, b5, and b6) of H. glomeratus in the future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) under two climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) compared to its current distribution in the arid areas of Northwest China. Note that the figures are based on the standard map (GS(2023)2767) of the Map Service System (http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/) marked by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, and the boundary of the standard map has not been modified.
Fig. 9 Potential suitable habitats (a1, a2, a3, a4, a5, and a6) and changes in the distribution range (b1, b2, b3, b4, b5, and b6) of H. strobilaceum in the future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) under two climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) compared to its current distribution in the arid areas of Northwest China. Note that the figures are based on the standard map (GS(2023)2767) of the Map Service System (http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/) marked by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, and the boundary of the standard map has not been modified.
Fig. 10 Potential suitable habitats (a1, a2, a3, a4, a5, and a6) and changes in the distribution range (b1, b2, b3, b4, b5, and b6) of H. caspica in the future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) under two climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) compared to its current distribution in the arid areas of Northwest China. Note that the figures are based on the standard map (GS(2023)2767) of the Map Service System (http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/) marked by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, and the boundary of the standard map has not been modified.
Fig. 11 Potential suitable habitats (a1, a2, a3, a4, a5, and a6) and changes in the distribution range (b1, b2, b3, b4, b5, and b6) of K. foliatum in the future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) under two climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) compared to its current distribution in the arid areas of Northwest China. Note that the figures are based on the standard map (GS(2023)2767) of the Map Service System (http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/) marked by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, and the boundary of the standard map has not been modified.
Variable Definition Unit Variable Definition Unit
Bio1 Annual mean temperature °C Slope Slope °
Bio2 Mean diurnal range °C Aspect Aspect index °
Bio3 Isothermality ((Bio2/Bio7)×100) - AN Available nitrogen mg/kg
Bio4 Temperature seasonality °C AP Available phosphorus mg/kg
Bio5 Maximum temperature of the warmest month °C AK Available potassium mg/kg
Bio6 Minimum temperature of the coldest month °C BD Soil bulk density g/cm3
Bio7 Temperature annual range °C BS Soil base saturation %
Bio8 Mean temperature of the wettest quarter °C SOM Soil organic matter %
Bio9 Mean temperature of the driest quarter °C pH Acidity and basicity -
Bio10 Mean temperature of the warmest quarter °C SOC Soil organic carbon %
Bio11 Mean temperature of the coldest quarter °C CEC_SOIL Cation exchange capacity cmol/kg
Bio12 Annual precipitation mm SILT Silt content %
Bio13 Precipitation of the wettest month mm CLAY Clay content %
Bio14 Precipitation of the driest month mm SAND Sand content %
Bio15 Precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation) mm ECE Electrical conductivity dS/m
Bio16 Precipitation of the wettest quarter mm TEB Soil exchangeable base cmol/kg
Bio17 Precipitation of the driest quarter mm ESP Soil sodicity %
Bio18 Precipitation of the warmest quarter mm POR Porosity %
Bio19 Precipitation of the coldest quarter mm Na Exchangeable Na+ cmol/kg
DEM Altitude m CACO3 Soil calcium carbonate %
Table S1 Description of the 40 environmental variables in this study
Variable Contribution rate (%)
S. salsa S. europaea H. glomeratus H. strobilaceum K. foliatum H. caspica Average
Na 31.40 28.40 5.00 4.60 9.70 14.50 11.68
AN 7.80 5.30 6.90 8.80 4.50 3.00 6.87
pH 7.40 10.50 1.60 0.30 6.20 4.20 3.33
BS 2.50 10.00 2.90 3.40 10.10 0.50 3.72
TEB 2.40 2.30 3.80 6.70 2.60 1.90 4.02
POR 0.90 0.10 0.90 0.60 3.10 2.90 1.53
ECE 0.90 0.80 3.40 2.40 2.40 9.10 3.47
CaCO3 6.10 1.90 2.00 2.50 5.30 1.10 3.38
CEC_SOIL 3.20 7.80 5.60 11.50 5.90 4.20 6.08
Bio2 3.20 0.30 2.60 1.80 5.70 5.90 3.43
Bio7 3.70 3.10 1.50 4.00 1.70 8.80 3.72
Bio10 6.80 5.10 0.20 5.50 9.90 1.00 4.90
Bio11 3.60 2.30 0.60 1.10 5.80 5.10 2.83
Bio15 1.70 9.40 44.00 32.00 2.00 23.40 23.15
Bio18 8.80 10.40 17.40 11.10 19.60 10.70 13.20
Bio19 9.70 2.10 1.60 3.50 5.40 3.70 4.62
Table S2 Contribution rates of the selected 16 environmental variables to the distribution of six halophytic plant species based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model
Variable S. salsa S. europaea H. glomeratus
Na (cmol/kg) 0.11-0.17 0.11-0.17 0.10-0.18
AN (mg/kg) 94.43-95.10 39.77-103.10 41.11-109.77
pH 8.03-8.45 8.12-8.49 8.24-9.82
BS (%) 99.85-100.00 99.88-100.00 99.80-100.00
TEB (cmol/kg) 40.81-40.89 21.15-68.20 1.60-17.96
POR (%) 43.32-50.14 47.69-52.70 47.11-52.26
ECE (dS/m) 30.41-42.80 15.30-42.80 9.97-42.80
CaCO3 (%) 4.70-15.53 0.62-19.67 0.80-29.50
CEC_SOIL (cmol/kg) 43.48-87.00 1.00-2.31 1.00-1.79
Bio2 (℃) 10.10-13.53 10.67-14.51 10.10-13.64
Bio7 (℃) 39.07-46.93 41.60-48.91 41.36-47.72
Bio10 (℃) 19.40-23.94 20.17-25.21 20.97-32.56
Bio11 (℃) -7.96-4.58 -9.92- -2.17 -12.42- -0.61
Bio15 (mm) 82.27-111.27 12.07-72.35 23.26-70.13
Bio18 (mm) 86.29-270.86 41.66-140.86 39.36-95.47
Bio19 (mm) 3.28-69.00 24.21-66.00 15.88-62.00
Environmental variable H. strobilaceum K. foliatum H. caspica
Na (cmol/kg) 0.09-0.17 0.11-0.17 0.12-0.17
AN (mg/kg) 49.11-107.10 31.78-102.43 35.11-109.10
pH 8.07-8.47 8.15-8.57 8.18-8.60
BS (%) 90.00-100.00 99.80-100.00 99.80-100.00
TEB (cmol/kg) 29.55-68.20 19.43-57.30 20.27-47.64
POR (%) 45.99-52.14 45.99-52.39 47.51-52.84
ECE (dS/m) 17.20-42.80 6.92-42.80 28.78-42.80
CaCO3 (%) 1.51-29.50 1.51-18.96 1.09-29.50
CEC_SOIL (cmol/kg) 1.00-1.69 35.33-87.00 1.00-1.89
Bio2 (℃) 10.10-13.65 10.89-14.24 10.52-14.13
Bio7 (℃) 42.05-49.05 40.55-47.22 40.88-46.71
Bio10 (℃) 21.87-30.76 -10.33- -1.82 20.67-25.65
Bio11 (℃) -6.77-1.14 -27.48-4.74 -8.45-1.23
Bio15 (mm) 23.26-68.34 37.17-80.05 23.22-76.41
Bio18 (mm) 30.18-96.70 45.98-169.6 35.50-116.14
Bio19 (mm) 3.22-66.00 2.64-7.14 5.95-63.00
Table S3 Suitable habitat ranges of the selected 16 environmental variables for the six halophytic plant species based on the retention of environmental factor response curves
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