|
|
|
| A cultivated area forecasting approach in artificial oases under climate change and human activities |
Shaobo ZHANG1, Fulong CHEN2,*( ), Jie CHEN1, Jing WANG2, Shaofei LI3, Aihua LONG2,4 |
1School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430081, China
2College of Water Conservancy & Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China;
3Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tianjin Agricultural University, Tianjin 300384, China
4State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China |
|
|
|
Abstract The cultivated area in artificial oases is deeply influenced by global climate change and human activities. Thus, forecasting cultivated area in artificial oases under climate change and human activities is of great significance. In this study, an approach named GD-HM-PSWROAM, consisting of general circulation model downscaling (GD), hydrological model (HM), and planting structureand water resource optimal allocation model (PSWROAM), was developed and applied in the irrigation district of the Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China to forecast the cultivated area tendency. Furthermore, the catchment export of the MIKE11 HD/NAM model was set to the Kensiwate hydrological station. The results show that the downscaling effects of temperature can be fairly satisfying, while those of precipitation may be not satisfying but acceptable. Simulation capacity of the MIKE11 HD/NAM model on the discharge in the Kensiwate hydrological station can meet the requirements of running the PSWROAM. The accuracy of the PSWROAM indicated that this model can perform well in predicting the change of cultivated area at the decadal scale. The cultivated area in the Manas River Basin under current human activities may be generally decreasing due to the climate change. But the adverse effects of climate change can be weakened or even eliminated through positive human activities. The cultivated area in the Manas River Basin may even be increasing under assumed human activities and future climate scenarios. The effects of human activities in thefuture can be generally predicted and quantified according to the cultivated area trends under current humanactivities and the situations in the study area.Overall, it is rational and acceptable to forecast the cultivated area tendency in artificial oases under future climate change and human activities through the GD-HM-PSWROAM approach.
|
|
Received: 27 January 2018
Published: 10 June 2019
|
|
Corresponding Authors:
|
|
|
| [1] | Abbott M B, Bathurst J C, Cunge J A, et al.1986. An introduction to the European Hydrological System-Systeme Hydrologique Europeen, "SHE", 1: History and philosophy of a physically-based, distributed modelling system. Journal of Hydrology, 87(1-2): 45-59. | | [2] | Aeschbacher J, Liniger H, Weingartner R.2005. River water shortage in a highland-lowland system. Mountain Research and Development, 25(2): 155-162. | | [3] | Aizen V B, Aizen E M, Melack J M, et al.1997. Climatic and hydrologic changes in the Tien Shan, Central Asia. Journal of Climate, 10(6): 1393-1404. | | [4] | Allan J A.1996. Water use and development in arid regions: Environment, economic development and water resource politics and policy. Review of European, Comparative & International Environmental Law, 5(2): 107-115. | | [5] | Arnold J G, Moriasi D N, Gassman P W, et al.2012. SWAT: Model use, calibration, and validation. Transactions of the ASABE, 55(4): 1345-1352. | | [6] | Beedle M J, Menounos B, Wheate R.2014. Glacier change in the Cariboo Mountains, British Columbia, Canada (1952-2005). The Cryosphere Discussions, 8(3): 3367-3411. | | [7] | Bhambri R, Bolch T, Chaujar R K, et al.2011. Glacier changes in the Garhwal Himalaya, India, from 1968 to 2006 based on remote sensing. Journal of Glaciology, 57(203): 543-556. | | [8] | Bolch T, Menounos B, Wheate R.2010a. Landsat-based inventory of glaciers in western Canada, 1985-2005. Remote Sensing of Environment, 114(1): 127-137. | | [9] | Bolch T, Yao T, Kang S, et al.2010b. A glacier inventory for the western Nyainqentanglha Range and the Nam Co Basin, Tibet, and glacier changes 1976-2009. The Cryosphere, 4: 419-433. | | [10] | Chen F L, Wang Y X, Wu Z B.2015. Impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff of continental river in arid areas-Taking Kensiwate hydrological station in Xinjiang Manas River Basin as an example. Arid Zone Research, 32(4): 692-697. (in Chinese) | | [11] | Chen Y N, Li W H, Xu C C, et al.2007. Effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim River Basin, Northwest China. Journal of Environmental Sciences, 19(4): 488-493. | | [12] | Chen Z S, Chen Y N, Li B F.2013. Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff for Kaidu River Basin in arid region of Northwest China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 111(3-4): 537-545. | | [13] | Chiew F H S, McMahon T A.2002. Modelling the impacts of climate change on Australian streamflow. Hydrological Processes, 16(6): 1235-1245. | | [14] | Cook A J, Holland P R, Meredith M P, et al.2016. Ocean forcing of glacier retreat in the western Antarctic Peninsula. Science, 353(6296): 283-286. | | [15] | Dawoud M A.2013. The development of integrated water resource information management system in arid regions. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 6(5): 1601-1612. | | [16] | Dee D P, Uppala S M, Simmons A J, et al.2011. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137(656): 553-597. | | [17] | Delgado A, Rodriguez DJ.2014. The United Nations World Water Development Report 2014: Water and Energy. Paris:United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Press,11. | | [18] | Delphi M.2011. Investigate the compliance of MIKE11 and muskingum cunge method for flood routing in Karun River. International Journal of Current Research, 3(11): 190-193. | | [19] | Doulgeris C, Georgiou P, Papadimos D, et al.2012. Ecosystem approach to water resources management using the MIKE11 modeling system in the Strymonas River and Lake Kerkini. Journal of Environmental Management, 94(1): 132-143. | | [20] | Eden J M, Widmann M.2010. Statistical downscaling of GCM-simulated precipitation using Model Output Statistics. In: Geophysical Research Abstracts. Vienna: EGU General Assembly, 12: 433. | | [21] | Foda R F, Awadallah A G, Gad M A.2017. A fast semi distributed rainfall runoff model for engineering applications in arid and semi-arid regions. Water Resources Management, 31(15): 4941-4955. | | [22] | Fujita K.2008. Effect of precipitation seasonality on climatic sensitivity of glacier mass balance. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 276(1-2): 14-19. | | [23] | Gao C, Bai T, Yang W W, et al.2017. Study on flood propagation in the upstream of Hanjiang River using MIKE11 model. Journal of Water Resources Research, 6(2): 156-165. (in Chinese) | | [24] | Gash J H C.1979. An analytical model of rainfall interception by forests. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 105(443): 43-55. | | [25] | Hewitson B C, Crane R G.2006. Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: precipitation downscaling over South Africa. International Journal of Climatology, 26(10): 1315-1337. | | [26] | Hodges K I, Lee R W, Bengtsson L.2011. A comparison of extratropical cyclones in recent reanalyses ERA-Interim, NASA MERRA, NCEP CFSR, and JRA-25. Journal of Climate, 24(18): 4888-4906. | | [27] | Inatsu M, Sato T, Yamada T J, et al.2015. Multi-GCM by multi-RAM experiments for dynamical downscaling on summertime climate change in Hokkaido. Atmospheric Science Letters, 16(3): 297-304. | | [28] | IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution ofWorking Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1-1535. | | [29] | Johnson R J, Stenvinkel P, Jensen T, et al.2016. Metabolic and kidney diseases in the setting of climate change, water shortage, and survival factors. Journal of the American Society of Nephrology, 27(8): 2247-2256. | | [30] | Lai X Q.2005. China Oasis Agronomy. Beijing: China Agricultural Press, 2. (in Chinese) | | [31] | Lambrecht A, Mayer C, Hagg W, et al.2011. A comparison of glacier melt on debris-covered glaciers in the northern and southern Caucasus. The Cryosphere, 5(3): 525-538. | | [32] | Li L J, Zhang L, Wang H, et al.2007. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China. Hydrological Processes, 21(25): 3485-3491. | | [33] | Lin B, Liu Q J, Shang H, et al.2014. Application of coupled MIKE11/NAM model in Naoli River Basin, northeastern China. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 36(5): 99-108. (in Chinese) | | [34] | Ling H B, Xu H L, Fu J Y, et al.2012. Surface runoff processes and sustainable utilization of water resources in Manas River Basin, Xinjiang, China. Journal of Arid Land, 4(3): 271-280. | | [35] | Luo F L, Yuan Y, Fan J B.2013. Application of SWMM and MIKE11 coupled model in urban Tidal River network. China Rural Water and Hydropower, 3: 98-102. (in Chinese) | | [36] | Makungo R, Odiyo J O, Ndiritu J G, et al.2010. Rainfall-runoff modelling approach for ungauged catchments: A case study of Nzhelele River sub-quaternary catchment. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 35(13): 596-607. | | [37] | Maurer E P, Hidalgo H G.2008. Utility of daily vs. monthly large-scale climate data: an intercomparison of two statistical downscaling methods. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 12: 551-563. | | [38] | McMichael C E, Hope A S, Loaiciga H A.2006. Distributed hydrological modelling in California semi-arid shrublands: MIKE SHE model calibration and uncertainty estimation. Journal of Hydrology, 317(3-4): 307-324. | | [39] | Miralles D G, Holmes T R H, De Jeu R A M, et al.2011a. Global land-surface evaporation estimated from satellite-based observations. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15: 453-469. | | [40] | Miralles D G, De Jeu R A M, Gash J H C, et al.2011b. Magnitude and variability of land evaporation and its components at the global scale. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15: 967-981. | | [41] | Miralles D G, De Jeu R A M, Gash J H, et al.2011c. An application of GLEAM to estimating global evaporation. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8: 1-27. | | [42] | Oduor A R, Mabanga M M.2018. Improving the efficiency of runoff pond system for supplementary irrigation in arid and semi-arid areas of Kenya. In: Leal Filho W, de Trincheria Gomez J. Rainwater-Smart Agriculture in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas. Cham, Switzerland: Springer Cham, 199-213. | | [43] | Pelto M S.2008. Impact of climate change on North Cascade alpine glaciers, and alpine runoff. Northwest Science, 82(1): 65-75. | | [44] | Poveda G, Zapata A F.2016. Scale invariant power laws capture the 3-D coupling between water, energy and carbon budgets across river basins of increasing Horton-Strahler Orders in the Andes-Amazon system. In: AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts. San Francisco: AGU Fall Meeting. | | [45] | Qian L X, Zhang R, Hong M, et al.2016. A new multiple integral model for water shortage risk assessment and its application in Beijing, China. Natural Hazards, 80(1): 43-67. | | [46] | Racoviteanu A E, Arnaud Y, Williams M W, et al.2008. Decadal changes in glacier parameters in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, derived from remote sensing. Journal of Glaciology, 54(186): 499-510. | | [47] | Romero P, Botia P, Garcia F.2004. Effects of regulated deficit irrigation under subsurface drip irrigation conditions on vegetative development and yield of mature almond trees. Plant and Soil, 260(1-2): 169-181. | | [48] | Sahoo G B, Ray C, Carlo E H D.2006. Calibration and validation of a physically distributed hydrological model, MIKE SHE, to predict streamflow at high frequency in a flashy mountainous Hawaii stream. Journal of Hydrology, 327(1-2): 94-109. | | [49] | Santhi C J G, Arnold J, Williams J R, et al.2001. Validation of the swat model on a large river basin with point and nonpoint sources. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 37(5): 1169-1188. | | [50] | Scherler D, Bookhagen B, Strecker M R.2011. Spatially variable response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change affected by debris cover. Nature Geoscience, 4(3): 156-159. | | [51] | Shamsudin S, Hashim N.2002. Rainfall runoff simulation using MIKE11 NAM. Malaysian Journal of Civil Engineering, 15(2): 26-38. | | [52] | Shihezi Statistics Bureau.2010. Statistical Yearbook Editorial Board of 2010. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1-419. (in Chinese) | | [53] | Shihezi Statistics Bureau.2015. Statistical Yearbook Editorial Board of 2015. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1-369. (in Chinese) | | [54] | Shuval H I, Isaac J.1994. Water and peace in the Middle East. Desalination, 88(1-3): 383. | | [55] | Sylla M B, Coppola E, Mariotti L, et al.2010. Multiyear simulation of the African climate using a regional climate model (RegCM3) with the high resolution ERA-interim reanalysis. Climate Dynamics, 35(1): 231-247. | | [56] | Valente F, David J S, Gash J H C.1997. Modelling interception loss for two sparse eucalypt and pine forests in central Portugal using reformulated Rutter and Gash analytical models. Journal of Hydrology (Amsterdam), 190(1-2): 141-162. | | [57] | Vazifedoost R M, Nayyeri M, Barani G A.2014. Floodplain modeling using HEC-RAS and MIKE11 models. Journal of River Engineering, 2(5). | | [58] | Vrac M, Stein M L, Hayhoe K, et al.2007. A general method for validating statistical downscaling methods under future climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(18): L18701, doi:10.1029/2007GL030295. | | [59] | Wang G Q, Zhang J Y, He R M, et al.2017. Runoff sensitivity to climate change for hydro-climatically different catchments in China. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 31(4): 1011-1021. | | [60] | Weedon G P, Balsamo G, Bellouin N, et al.2014. The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Water Resources Research, 50(9): 7505-7514. | | [61] | Wu L Z, Li X.2003. China Glacier Information System. Beijing: China Ocean Press, 1-135. (in Chinese) | | [62] | Xu C C, Chen Y N, Chen Y P, et al.2013. Responses of surface runoff to climate change and human activities in the arid region of Central Asia: a case study in the Tarim River Basin, China. Environmental Management, 51(4): 926-938. | | [63] | Xu L, Wood E F, Lettenmaier D P.1996. Surface soil moisture parameterization of the VIC-2L model: Evaluation and modification. Global and Planetary Change, 13(1-4): 195-206. | | [64] | Xu Z X.2010. Hydrological models: past, present and future. Journal of Beijing Normal University, 46(3): 278-289. (in Chinese) | | [65] | Yang M, Xue L, Zheng G, et al.2013. Optimized allocation of water resources in Yarkand River Basin based on WEAP model. Journal of Hohai University, 41(6): 493-499. (in Chinese) | | [66] | Zemp M, Frey H, Gärtner-Roer I, et al.2015. Historically unprecedented global glacier decline in the early 21st century. Journal of Glaciology, 61(228): 745-762. | | [67] | Zhang S B, Chen F L, He X L, et al.2017. A new downscaling approach and its performance with bias correction and spatial disaggregation as contrast. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 8(4): 675-690. | | [68] | Zhang Z, Hu H P, Tian F Q, et al.2014. Groundwater dynamics under water-saving irrigation and implications for sustainable water management in an oasis: Tarim River basin of western China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18(10): 3951-3967. | | [69] | Zhou Y C.1999. Hydrology and Water Resources of Rivers in Xinjiang. Urumqi: Xinjiang Science, Technologyand HealthPress, 1-445. (in Chinese) |
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
| |
Shared |
|
|
|
|
| |
Discussed |
|
|
|
|
