Monitoring fire regimes and assessing their driving factors in Central Asia

doi:10.1007/s40333-021-0008-2

Journal of Arid Land

2021, Vol. 13

Issue (5): 500-515 DOI: 10.1007/s40333-021-0008-2 CSTR: 32276.14.s40333-021-0008-2

Research article

Monitoring fire regimes and assessing their driving factors in Central Asia

YIN Hanmin¹^,², Jiapaer GULI¹^,²^,³^,^*(

), JIANG Liangliang¹^,², YU Tao¹^,², Jeanine UMUHOZA¹^,², LI Xu¹^,²

¹State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
²University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China
³Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China

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Abstract

Relatively little is known about fire regimes in grassland and cropland in Central Asia. In this study, eleven variables of fire regimes were measured from 2001 to 2019 by utilizing the burned area and active fire product, which was obtained and processed from the GEE (Google Earth Engine) platform, to describe the incidence, inter-annual variability, peak month and size of fire in four land cover types (forest, grassland, cropland and bare land). Then all variables were clustered to define clusters of fire regimes with unique fire attributes using the K-means algorithm. Results showed that Kazakhstan (KAZ) was the most affected by fire in Central Asia. Fire regimes in cropland in KAZ had the frequent, large and intense characters, which covered large burned areas and had a long duration. Fires in grassland mainly occurred in central KAZ and had the small scale and high-intensity characters with different quarterly frequencies. Fires in forest were mainly distributed in northern KAZ and eastern KAZ. Although fires in grassland underwent a shift from more to less frequent from 2001 to 2019 in Central Asia, vigilance is needed because most fires in grassland occur suddenly and cause harm to humans and livestock.

Key words： fire regime burned area active fire K-means algorithm Central Asia

Received: 22 September 2020 Published: 10 May 2021

Corresponding Authors:

About author: *Jiapaer GULI (E-mail: glmr@ms.xjb.ac.cn)

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	Hanmin YIN
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	Liangliang JIANG
	Tao YU
	UMUHOZA Jeanine
	Xu LI

Cite this article:

YIN Hanmin, Jiapaer GULI, JIANG Liangliang, YU Tao, Jeanine UMUHOZA, LI Xu. Monitoring fire regimes and assessing their driving factors in Central Asia. Journal of Arid Land, 2021, 13(5): 500-515.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-021-0008-2 OR http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2021/V13/I5/500

Fig. 1 Main types of land use in Central Asia in 2018 (a) and fire burn scars based on Landsat 8 images in central KAZ (b-g, marked as A-F in Figure 1a). A, northeastern Aktobe; B, northeastern Aktobe; C, southern Qostanay; D, southern Qaraghandy; E, southern Qaraghandy; F, East Kazakhstan. KAZ, Kazakhstan; UZB, Uzbekistan; TKM, Turkmenistan; KGZ, Kyrgyzstan; TJK, Tajikistan. Abbreviations are the same as in the following figures.

Table 1 List of fire variables from 2001 to 2019

Fig. 2 Average annual burned area (ABAY, a) and its inter-annual coefficient of variance (CVBA, b) in Central Asia based on FireCCI5.1 burned area data

Fig. 3 Average annual active fire frequency (AFOF, a) and its inter-annual coefficient of variance (CVFP, b) in Central Asia based on MODIS active fire data

Fig. 4 Peak month of fires (FPDT) in different months in Central Asia based on MODIS active fire data

Fig. 5 Seasonal duration of fires (FPSD, a) and Gini index (GI, b) in Central Asia based on MODIS burned area data and active fire data

Fig. 6 Vegetation types affected by fires in Central Asia based on MODIS active fire data. PFAF, percentage of forest active fires; PGAF, percentage of grassland active fires; PCAF, percentage of cropland active fires; PBAF, percentage of bare land active fires.

Fig. 7 Box plot distribution of fire variable values. The black center mark indicates the median, while the bottom and top edges of the green box and line indicate the 25^th and 75^th percentiles, respectively. Outliers (if any) are indicated by red plus signs.

Fig. 8 Distribution of fire regime in Central Asia

Table 2 Fire regime variables and classification of fire regimes

Fig. 9 Monthly active fires in grassland in Central Asia

Fig. 10 Monthly active fires in cropland in Central Asia

Fig. 11 Net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation in grassland from 2016 to 2019 based on different fire regimes. A, northeastern Aktobe (25 August, 2016); B, northeastern Aktobe (15 August, 2016); C, southern Qostanay (4 September, 2016); D, southern Qaraghandy (21 August, 2016); E, southern Qaraghandy (11 August, 2016); F, East Kazakhstan (1 September, 2016).

Fig. 12 Time series of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the agricultural areas of Central Asia from 2015 to 2019 based on MOD13Q1 V6 products. KAZ1, northern Kazakhstan; KAZ2, Syr Darya Valley; KGZ1, northern Kyrgyzstan; KGZ2, Uzgen City; UZB1, Nukus Irrigation District; UZB2, southern Tashkent City; UZB3, Fergana Valley.

Fig. 13 Relationship between PSDI (Palmer Drought Severity Index) and annual burned area in grassland. (a), PDSI change from 2001 to 2018; (b), correlations of PDSI with frequency and cumulative area of fires in grassland in Kazakhstan.

Fig. 14 Relationship between PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index) and monthly burned area in grassland. (a), monthly PDSI from 2001 to 2018; (b) monthly burned area in grassland from 2001 to 2018 in Kazakhstan.


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