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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2022, Vol. 14 Issue (4): 411-425    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-022-0093-x
Research article     
Study of the intensity and driving factors of land use/cover change in the Yarlung Zangbo River, Nyang Qu River, and Lhasa River region, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China
LUO Jing1,2, XIN Liangjie3,*(), LIU Fenggui1,2,*(), CHEN Qiong1, ZHOU Qiang1, ZHANG Yili3,4
1College of Geographic Sciences, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China
2Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Xining 810008, China
3Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
4Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
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Abstract  

Land use/land cover (LULC) is an important part of exploring the interaction between natural environment and human activities and achieving regional sustainable development. Based on the data of LULC types (cropland, forest land, grassland, built-up land, and unused land) from 1990 to 2015, we analysed the intensity and driving factors of land use/cover change (LUCC) in the Yarlung Zangbo River, Nyang Qu River, and Lhasa River (YNL) region, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China, using intensity analysis method, cross-linking table method, and spatial econometric model. The results showed that LUCC in the YNL region was nonstationary from 1990 to 2015, showing a change pattern with "fast-slow-fast" and "U-shaped". Built-up land showed a steady increase pattern, while cropland showed a steady decrease pattern. The gain of built-up land mainly came from the loss of cropland. The transition pattern of LUCC in the YNL region was relatively single and stable during 1990-2015. The transition pattern from cropland and forest land to built-up land was a systematic change process of tendency and the transition pattern from grassland and unused land to cropland was a systematic change process of avoidance. The transition process of LUCC was the result of the combined effect of natural environment and social economic development in the YNL region. This study reveals the impact of ecological environment problems caused by human activities on the land resource system and provides scientific support for the study of ecological environment change and sustainable development of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Key words： land use/cover change      intensity analysis      driving factors      Yarlung Zangbo River      Nyang Qu River      Lhasa River      Qinghai-Tibet Plateau     
Received: 30 August 2021      Published: 30 April 2022
Corresponding Authors: *XIN Liangjie (E-mail: xinlj@igsnrr.ac.cn);LIU Fenggui (E-mail: lfg_918@163.com)
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LUO Jing
XIN Liangjie
LIU Fenggui
CHEN Qiong
ZHOU Qiang
ZHANG Yili
Cite this article:

LUO Jing, XIN Liangjie, LIU Fenggui, CHEN Qiong, ZHOU Qiang, ZHANG Yili. Study of the intensity and driving factors of land use/cover change in the Yarlung Zangbo River, Nyang Qu River, and Lhasa River region, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China. Journal of Arid Land, 2022, 14(4): 411-425.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-022-0093-x     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2022/V14/I4/411

Fig. 1 Land use/land cover (LULC) types in the Yarlung Zangbo River, Nyang Qu River, and Lhasa River (YNL) region in 2015. LULC types data were obtained from the Resource and Environmental Science Data Centre of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (http://www.resdc.cn).
Intensity analysis Characterisation index Calculation formula
Interval level Intensity of LUCC in each time interval ${{S}_{t}}=\frac{\left\{ \underset{j=1}{\overset{J}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,\left[ \left( \underset{i=1}{\overset{J}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,{{C}_{tij}} \right)-{{C}_{tjj}} \right] \right\}\div \left[ \underset{j=1}{\overset{J}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,\left( \underset{i=1}{\overset{J}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,{{C}_{tij}} \right) \right]}{{{Y}_{t+1}}-{{Y}_{t}}}\times 100\text{ }\!\!%\!\!\text{ }$.
Uniform intensity within the overall time interval $U=\frac{\underset{t=1}{\overset{T-1}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,\left\{ \underset{j=1}{\overset{J}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,\left[ \left( \underset{i=1}{\overset{J}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,{{C}_{tij}} \right)-{{C}_{tjj}} \right] \right\}\div \left[ \underset{j=1}{\overset{J}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,\left( \underset{i=1}{\overset{J}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,{{C}_{tij}} \right) \right]}{{{Y}_{T}}-{{Y}_{1}}}\times 100\text{ }\!\!%\!\!\text{ }$
Category level Annual gain intensity ${{G}_{tj}}=\frac{\left[ \left( \underset{i=1}{\overset{J}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,{{C}_{tij}} \right)-{{C}_{jj}} \right]\div ({{Y}_{t+1}}-{{Y}_{t}})}{\underset{i=1}{\overset{J}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,{{C}_{tij}}}\times 100\text{ }\!\!%\!\!\text{ }$
Annual loss intensity ${{L}_{ti}}=\frac{\left[ \left( \underset{j=1}{\overset{J}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,{{C}_{tij}} \right)-{{C}_{ii}} \right]\div ({{Y}_{t+1}}-{{Y}_{t}})}{\underset{j=1}{\overset{J}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,{{C}_{tij}}}\times 100\text{ }\!\!%\!\!\text{ }$
Transition level Transition intensity of LULC type n gains from LULC type i in a particular time interval ${{R}_{tin}}=\frac{{{C}_{tin}}\div ({{Y}_{t+1}}-{{Y}_{t}})}{\underset{j=1}{\overset{J}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,{{C}_{tij}}}\times 100\text{ }\!\!%\!\!\text{ }$
The uniform transition intensity of LULC type n from other LULC types in a particular time interval ${{W}_{tn}}=\frac{\left[ \left( \underset{i=1}{\overset{J}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,{{C}_{tin}} \right)-{{C}_{tnn}} \right]\div ({{Y}_{t+1}}-{{Y}_{t}})}{\underset{j=1}{\overset{J}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,\left[ \left( \underset{i=1}{\overset{j}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,{{C}_{tij}} \right)-{{C}_{tnj}} \right]}\times 100\text{ }\!\!%\!\!\text{ }$
Transition intensity of LULC type m loses to LULC type j in a particular time interval $Q_{t m j}=\frac{C_{t m j} \div\left(Y_{t+1}-Y_{t}\right)}{\sum_{i=1}^{J} C_{t j}} \times 100 \%$
The uniform transition intensity of LULC type m to other LULC types in a particular time interval ${{V}_{tm}}=\frac{\left[ \left( \underset{j=1}{\overset{J}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,{{C}_{tmj}} \right)-{{C}_{tmm}} \right]\div \left( {{Y}_{t+1}}-{{Y}_{t}} \right)}{\underset{i=1}{\overset{J}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,\left[ \left( \underset{j=1}{\overset{j}{\mathop{\mathop{\sum }^{}}}}\,{{C}_{tij}} \right)-{{C}_{tim}} \right]}\times 100\text{ }\!\!%\!\!\text{ }$
Table 1 Calculation formula of intensity analysis of land use/cover change (LUCC) at interval level, category level, and transition level
Year Cropland Forest land Grassland Built-up land Unused land
Area
(km2)		 Percentage (%) Area
(km2)		 Percentage (%) Area (km2) Percentage (%) Area (km2) Percentage (%) Area
(km2)		 Percentage (%)
1990 2729.81 3.66 1973.64 2.65 59,570.35 79.93 94.74 0.13 10,155.46 13.63
2000 2723.88 3.66 2103.01 2.82 59,495.49 79.83 110.59 0.15 10,091.03 13.54
2010 2711.28 3.64 2102.77 2.82 59,485.41 79.82 133.97 0.18 10,090.57 13.54
2015 2689.30 3.61 2097.70 2.82 59,445.90 79.77 165.96 0.22 10,125.13 13.59
Table 2 Change in area and percentage of land use/land cover (LULC) types in the Yarlung Zangbo River, Nyang Qu River, and Lhasa River (YNL) region in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015
Fig. 2 Change in area and intensity of LUCC at interval level in the YNL region during 1990-2000, 2000-2010, and 2010-2015
Fig. 3 Change in area and intensity of LUCC at category level in the YNL region during 1990-2000 (a), 2000-2010 (b), and 2010-2015 (c)
Fig. 4 Change in area and transition intensity of built-up land gaining from other LULC types in the YNL region during 1990-2000 (a), 2000-2010 (b), and 2010-2015 (c)
Fig. 5 Change in area and transition intensity of grassland losing to other LULC types in the YNL region during 1990-2000 (a), 2000-2010 (b), and 2010-2015 (c)
Fig. 6 Process and transition pattern of LUCC in the YNL region from 1990 to 2015. Note: stability, LULC type i and LULC type j remain constant; avoidance, the gain of LULC type j avoids transition from LULC type i in the time interval; tendency, the loss of LULC type i tends to be transformed to LULC type j in the time interval.
Fig. 7 Spatial distribution and change in area of LUCC in the YNL region (a), Xigaze City (b), Lhasa City (c), and Shannan Prefecture (d) from 1990 to 2015. "-", the transition process from LUCC type to another LUCC type.
Parameter Transition process of LULC types
C-B F-B G-B G-F U-F G-U
Moran's I 0.46*** 0.59*** 0.47*** 0.57*** 0.47*** 0.65***
Z value 12.58 5.50 11.84 20.24 20.24 15.20
Lagrange multiplier (lag) 165.99*** 35.22*** 152.46*** 463.60*** 247.03*** 172.71***
Robust LM (lag) 25.21*** 8.69*** 27.96*** 103.76*** 54.65*** 24.54***
Lagrange multiplier (error) 143.31*** 27.49*** 127.03*** 365.28*** 201.51*** 148.30***
Robust LM (error) 2.53 0.96 2.52 5.45 9.13*** 0.12
Model selection Spatial lag model Spatial lag model Spatial lag model Spatial lag model Spatial lag model Spatial lag model
Table 3 Results of spatial econometric model in the YNL region
Driving factor Transition process of LULC types
C-B F-B G-B G-F U-F G-U
Elevation -2.41** 0.52 -0.42 4.49*** -3.11*** 4.49***
Slope 0.88 -2.78*** -4.02*** -9.68*** -2.70*** -10.35***
Distance to rivers -0.22 -0.52 -1.96* -4.92*** 8.42*** 1.32
Distance to traffic routes -1.28 -2.11** -1.41 0.39 -0.70 12.02***
Table 4 Correlation coefficients between LUCC transition process and driving factors using the spatial regression analysis in the YNL region
Fig. 8 Percentage of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in the YNL region from 1990 to 2015
Fig. 9 Average annual growth rate of rural population and urban population in the YNL region from 1990 to 2015. The population data were from the Tibet Statistical Yearbook (Tibet Autonomous Region Statistical Bureau, National Bureau of Statistics Tibet Investigation Corps, 1990-2015).
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