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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2023, Vol. 15 Issue (1): 20-33    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-023-0090-8
Research article     
Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of habitat quality in Hohhot City of China based on the InVEST and CA-Markov models
LUAN Yongfei1, HUANG Guohe2,*(), ZHENG Guanghui3
1College of Environmental Science and Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
3School of Architecture and Art, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
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Abstract  

With the acceleration of urbanization, changes in the urban ecological environment and landscape pattern have led to a series of prominent ecological environmental problems. In order to better coordinate the balanced relationship between city and ecological environment, we selected land use change data to evaluate the habitat quality in Hohhot City of China, which is of great practical significance for regional urban and economic development. Thus, the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) and Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) models were used to analyze, predict, and explore the Spatiotemporal evolution path and characteristics of urban land use, and forecast the typical evolution pattern of land use in 2030. The results showed that the land use types in Hohhot City changed significantly from 2000 to 2020, and the biggest change took place in cultivated land, grassland, shrub, and artificial surface. The decrease of cultivated land area and the increase of artificial surface area were the main impact trend of land use change. The average value of habitat quality had been decreasing continuously from 2000 to 2020, and the values of habitat degradation were 0.2605, 0.2494, and 0.2934 in 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively, showing a decreasing trend. The decrease of habitat quality was caused by the needs of economic development and urban construction, as well as the impact of land occupation. During this evolution, many cultivated land and urban grassland had been converted into construction land. The simulated land use changes in 2030 are basically the same as those during 2000-2020, and the habitat quality will still be declining. The regional changes are influenced by the urban rapid development and industrial layout. These results can provide decision-making reference for regional urban planning and management as well as habitat quality evaluation.

Key words： land use      urbanization      InVEST      CA-Markov      habitat quality      Hohhot City     
Received: 01 August 2022      Published: 31 January 2023
Corresponding Authors: *HUANG Guohe (E-mail: huang@iseis.org)
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LUAN Yongfei
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LUAN Yongfei, HUANG Guohe, ZHENG Guanghui. Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of habitat quality in Hohhot City of China based on the InVEST and CA-Markov models. Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(1): 20-33.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-023-0090-8     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2023/V15/I1/20

Threat source Maximum influence distance (km) Weight Degradation type
Cultivated land 3 0.7 Linear
Artificial surface 5 1.0 Exponential
Bareland 1 0.4 Linear
Table 1 Threat sources and weight of habitat quality in Hohhot City
Land use type Habitat suitability degree Sensitivity degree
Cultivated land Artificial surface Bareland
Cultivated land 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3
Forest 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.4
Grassland 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3
Shrubland 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.3
Wetland 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.3
Water body 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.6
Artificial surface 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bareland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Table 2 Habitat suitability degree of land use types and relative sensitivity to the three threat sources
Fig. 1 Spatial distribution of land use types in Hohhot City in 2000 (a), 2010 (b), and 2020 (c)
Parameter Cultivated land Forest Grassland Shrubland Wetland Water body Artificial surface Bareland
Area in 2000 (km2) 9010.56 887.62 6327.45 134.19 74.23 62.26 644.78 25.59
Area in 2022 (km2) 8525.64 1040.69 5993.77 437.52 36.75 73.78 1039.39 19.13
Change in area between 2000 and 2020 (km2) -484.92 153.08 -333.68 303.33 -37.48 11.52 394.62 -6.45
Rate of change (%) -0.27 0.86 -0.26 11.30 -2.52 0.92 3.06 -1.26
Table 3 Statistics of land use change rate in Hohhot City from 2000 to 2020
Land use type Grassland (km2) Cultivated land (km2) Shrubland (km2) Bareland (km2) Artificial surface (km2) Forest (km2) Wetland (km2) Water body (km2) Transfer- out (km2) Net transfer-
out (km2)
2000-2010
Grassland 5040.54 486.70 370.61 8.00 27.02 388.93 2.49 8.53 1292.29 231.09
Cultivated land 753.78 8067.66 9.27 1.38 134.34 26.06 5.11 7.57 937.51 326.03
Shrubland 30.07 2.45 42.95 0.02 0.11 58.38 0.03 0.17 91.23 -324.46
Bareland 7.72 1.14 0.51 16.10 0.07 0.05 - 0.00 9.49 0.07
Artificial surface 13.18 74.31 1.38 0.01 554.20 0.83 0.15 0.71 90.58 -74.10
Forest 243.85 20.55 33.71 0.02 0.37 588.41 0.55 0.16 299.21 -175.62
Wetland 8.39 14.32 0.04 - 0.47 0.40 41.43 9.19 32.80 21.57
Water body 4.21 12.01 0.18 - 2.29 0.18 2.89 40.50 21.76 -4.58
Transfer-into 1061.21 611.48 415.70 9.41 164.68 474.83 11.23 26.34 - -
2010-2020
Grassland 4646.21 1021.36 4.91 11.02 107.22 302.96 2.25 5.83 1455.54 103.96
Cultivated land 989.83 7258.75 6.08 4.17 375.81 21.76 4.95 17.79 1420.39 157.53
Shrubland 5.75 26.31 342.20 0.89 2.50 80.72 0.03 0.25 116.45 21.14
Bareland 15.39 5.44 1.10 2.69 0.80 0.07 0.01 0.01 22.82 6.38
Artificial surface 21.76 147.88 1.66 0.07 545.98 0.65 0.07 0.80 172.89 -320.51
Forest 307.19 35.03 81.45 0.23 4.81 634.01 0.32 0.20 429.23 22.55
Wetland 2.52 16.52 0.01 - 0.88 0.44 27.61 4.67 25.05 15.92
Water body 9.14 10.32 0.09 0.06 1.39 0.10 1.52 44.22 22.62 -6.93
Transfer-into 1351.58 1262.86 95.31 16.44 493.40 406.68 9.13 29.55 - -
Table 4 Transfer matrix of land use types in Hohhot City from 2000 to 2010 and from 2010 to 2020
Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of habitat degradation degree in Hohhot City in 2000 (a), 2010 (b), and 2020 (c)
Grade Range of habitat quality 2000 2010 2020
Area (km2) Proportion (%) Area (km2) Proportion (%) Area (km2) Proportion (%)
Low 0.0-0.2 680.44 3.96 756.24 4.41 1070.60 6.24
Relatively low 0.2-0.5 9003.68 52.45 8674.50 50.53 8517.80 49.62
Medium 0.5-0.7 6459.61 37.63 6554.14 38.18 6429.06 37.45
Relatively high 0.7-0.8 888.68 5.18 1062.14 6.19 1048.03 6.11
High 0.8-1.0 134.25 0.78 119.63 0.70 101.18 0.59
Table 5 Area and proportion of habitat quality at different grades in 2000, 2010, and 2020
Fig. 3 Prediction of land use change pattern in Hohhot City in 2030
Land use type Predicted area in
2030 (km2)		 Area in 2020 (km2) Change in area between 2020 and 2030 (km2) Rate of change (%)
Cultivated land 7675.20 9010.56 -1335.36 -0.01
Forest 1202.72 887.62 315.10 0.04
Grassland 6061.19 6327.45 -266.26 0.00
Shrubland 700.83 134.19 566.64 0.42
Wetland 29.06 74.23 -45.17 -0.06
Water body 78.27 62.26 16.01 0.03
Artificial surface 1391.00 644.78 746.22 0.12
Bareland 28.39 25.59 2.80 0.01
Table 6 Land use change prediction in Hohhot City during 2020-2030
Fig. 4 Prediction of habitat degradation degree in Hohhot City in 2030
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