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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2025, Vol. 17 Issue (2): 145-166    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-025-0091-x     CSTR: 32276.14.JAL.0250091x
Research article     
Multi-scenario simulation of land use change and its impact on ecosystem services in the northeastern edge of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, China
ZHANG Xuebin1,*(), LIU Yanni1, YIN Junfeng2, SHI Peiji1, FENG Haoyuan1, SHI Jing3
1College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
2Faculty of Geographic Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
3State Key Laboratory of Herbage Improvement and Grassland Agro-ecosystems, College of Ecology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
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Abstract  

The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) serves as a crucial ecological barrier in China and Asia, exerting profound influences on global climate and biodiversity conservation. Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture (hereinafter referred as Gannan Prefecture), located on the northeastern edge of the QXP, represents a fragile alpine ecosystem in which land use change significantly impacts ecosystem services (ESs). This study established a comprehensive framework, utilizing the Patch-generating Land-Use Simulation (PLUS) model coupled with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to predict land use patterns under the natural development scenario, cultivated land protection scenario, and ecological protection scenario for Gannan Prefecture by 2030 and evaluated four critical ESs: habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY), soil retention (SR), and carbon storage (CS). The primary aim is to elucidate the impacts of dynamic land use change on ESs. The results revealed that, from 2000 to 2020, HQ exhibited minimal variation, whereas CS experienced a slight decline. Conversely, WY and SR showed significant improvements. Under the natural development scenario, construction land was projected to increase by 4247.74 hm2, primarily at the expense of forest land. The cultivated land protection scenario anticipated an increase in farmland by 2634.36 hm2, which was crucial for maintaining food security. The ecological protection scenario predicted a notable expansion of forest land, accompanied by a restrained development rate of construction land. The ecological protection scenario also showed an increase in the ecosystem service index (ESI), encompassing 26.07% of the region. Forest land and grassland emerged as the primary contributors to ESs, while construction land substantially impacted WY. Water bodies exhibited minimal contribution to ESs. This study enhanced the understanding of land use change impacts on ESs in fragile and high-altitude ecosystems, offering essential theoretical frameworks and practical direction for forthcoming ecological policy and regional planning endeavors.

Key words： PLUS-InVEST model      ecosystem service      habitat quality      water yield      soil retention      carbon storage      Qinghai-Xizang Plateau     
Received: 27 August 2024      Published: 28 February 2025
Corresponding Authors: *ZHANG Xuebin (E-mail: zhangxb@nwnu.edu.cn)
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ZHANG Xuebin
LIU Yanni
YIN Junfeng
SHI Peiji
FENG Haoyuan
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ZHANG Xuebin, LIU Yanni, YIN Junfeng, SHI Peiji, FENG Haoyuan, SHI Jing. Multi-scenario simulation of land use change and its impact on ecosystem services in the northeastern edge of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, China. Journal of Arid Land, 2025, 17(2): 145-166.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-025-0091-x     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2025/V17/I2/145

Fig. 1 Geographic location (a) and overview (b) of Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Gansu Province, China. The Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture is abbreviated as Gannan Prefecture in hereinafter figures. QXP, Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.
Fig. 2 Framework of this study on the impact of land use change on ecological services (ESs). PLUS, Patch-generating Land-Use Simulation; InVEST, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs; HQ, habitat quality; WY, water yield; SR, soil retention; CS, carbon storage; ESI, ecosystem service index.
Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of land use in Gannan Prefecture in 2020
Fig. 4 Chord diagram illustrating land use changes in Gannan Prefecture from 2000 to 2020. (a), 2000-2005; (b), 2005-2010; (c), 2010-2015; (d), 2015-2020; (e), 2000-2020. The number is the sum of variation area of each land use type.
Fig. 5 Comparison of 2020 baseline land use with three predictive scenarios for 2030 in Gannan Prefecture. (a1-a3), 2020; (b1-b3), natural development scenario in 2030; (c1-c3), cultivated land protection scenario in 2030; (d1-d3), ecological protection scenario in 2030.
Fig. 6 Spatio-temporal dynamics in ESs in Gannan Prefecture from 2000 to 2020. (a1-a3), HQ; (b1-b3), WY; (c1-c3), SR; (d1-d3), CS.
Fig. 7 Spatio-temporal dynamic changes of ESs under three predictive scenarios in Gannan Prefecture from 2020 to 2030. (a1-a4), natural development scenario; (b1-b4), cultivated land protection scenario; (c1-c4), ecological protection scenario.
Fig. 8 Proportion of change in different land use types across various counties in Gannan Prefecture from 2000 to 2020
Fig. 9 Contribution percentage of distinct land use types (a) and impact of land use changes (b) on ESs in Gannan Prefecture from 2000 to 2020
Fig. 10 Variation of land use under different elevations in Gannan Prefecture from 2000 to 2020. (a), elevation<1000 m; (b), 1000 m<elevation<2000 m; (c), elevation>2000 m.
Fig. 11 ESs under different land use types and elevations in Gannan Prefecture in 2000 and 2020. (a1 and a2), HQ; (b1 and b2), WY; (c1 and c2), SR; (d1 and d2), CS.
Fig. 12 Spatio-temporal pattern of ESI in 2020 (a) and ESI change under three predictive scenarios in 2030 compared with 2020 (b, c, and d) in Gannan Prefecture
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