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Journal of Arid Land  2026, Vol. 18 Issue (4): 568-583    DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridl.2026.04.002     CSTR: 32276.14.JAL.20250216
Research article     
Spatiotemporal variations of surface water and its response to climate change in global arid regions during 2000-2020
TIAN Yanjun1, SUN Yongqi1, HOU Senlei1, GAO Yongnian2,*(), ERKIN Shireli1,3
1 School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
2 College of Geography and Remote Sensing, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
3 College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
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Abstract  

Surface water plays an essential role in the ecohydrological cycle, especially in water-scarce regions. Changes in surface water restrict social, economic, and agricultural development. However, the patterns and underlying causes of surface water changes over varying frequencies in global arid regions remain unclear. Thus, this study investigated the changes in surface water and the underlying causes using the trend analysis and Spearman correlation coefficient on the basis of multi-source remote sensing and climate datasets across global arid regions during 2000-2020. The surface water was divided into temporary surface water (TSW), seasonal surface water (SSW), and permanent surface water (PSW) by calculating the surface water inundation frequency. Considering that surface water may be influenced by precipitation in the upper basins, we analyzed the response of surface water area to climatic factors at the basin scale. The area of all surface water (ASW) increased dramatically in global arid regions from 2000 to 2020, increasing from 61.88×104 to 67.40×104 km2; however, this increase was accompanied by a decrease in surface water inundation frequency. TSW increased by 55.46% relative to its area in 2000, with a net change rate of 3284.00 km2/a. Changes in surface water were predominantly observed in the Kyzylkum Desert in Central Asia, the Thar Desert in southwestern Asia, and the deserts in Oceania. Precipitation had a significant effect on SSW and TSW at the basin scale. The correlation between precipitation and SSW area can reach 0.808 in the Indus River Basin of the Thar Desert (P<0.01). The findings provide a more comprehensive understanding of surface water variability in global arid regions, carrying significant practical implications for the scientific management of surface water at different frequencies.



Key wordssurface water area      surface water inundation frequency      temporary surface water      climate change      snow melting      global arid regions     
Received: 13 May 2025      Published: 30 April 2026
Corresponding Authors: *GAO Yongnian (E-mail: yngao@hhu.edu.cn)
Cite this article:

TIAN Yanjun, SUN Yongqi, HOU Senlei, GAO Yongnian, ERKIN Shireli. Spatiotemporal variations of surface water and its response to climate change in global arid regions during 2000-2020. Journal of Arid Land, 2026, 18(4): 568-583.

URL:

http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1016/j.jaridl.2026.04.002     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2026/V18/I4/568

Fig. 1 Spatial distribution of global arid regions
Fig. 2 Temporal variations of surface water area in global arid regions from 2000 to 2020. ASW, all surface water; PSW, permanent surface water; SSW, seasonal surface water; TSW, temporary surface water.
Fig. 3 Abrupt changes in surface water area during 2000-2020. (a), ASW; (b), PSW; (c), SSW; (d), TSW. The blue dots indicate years in which the changes were statistically significant.
Fig. 4 Spatial pattern of surface water area changes in global arid regions during 2000-2020. (a1 and a2), trend and significance of ASW change; (b1 and b2), trend and significance of PSW change; (c1 and c2), trend and significance of SSW change; (d1 and d2), trend and significance of TSW change.
Fig. 5 Hotspots of surface water inundation frequency decrease (a) and increase (b) in global arid regions during 2000-2020
Fig. 6 Spatial pattern of surface water area change in global arid regions at the basin scale during 2000-2020. (a), ASW; (b), PSW; (c), SSW; (d), TSW.
Fig. 7 Spatiotemporal variations of precipitation in global arid regions during 2000-2020. (a), spatial pattern of variation in precipitation; (b), temporal variation in precipitation.
Fig. 8 Temporal variations in surface water area and monthly precipitation for the Mackay Lake Basin (a), Eyre Lake Basin (b), Amu Darya River Basin (c), Syr Darya River Basin (d), Mesopotamia Basin (e), and Indus River Basin (f)
Type of surface water Correlation coefficient
Mackay Lake Basin Eyre Lake
Basin
Amu Darya River Basin Syr Darya River Basin Mesopotamia Basin Indus River Basin
PSW 0.653*** 0.705*** - 0.368* 0.510** 0.432**
SSW 0.700*** 0.773*** 0.512** - 0.536** 0.808***
TSW 0.395* 0.648*** 0.406* - 0.379* -
Table 1 Spearman correlation coefficient between precipitation and surface water area for the six typical basins
Fig. 9 Spatiotemporal variations of temperature in global arid regions during 2000-2020. (a), spatial pattern of variation in temperature; (b), temporal variation in temperature.
Fig. 10 Spatial distribution of snow cover in 2020 (a) and temporal variation in snow cover area during 2001-2020 (b)
Type of surface water Correlation coefficient
Mackay Lake Basin Eyre Lake
Basin
Amu Darya River Basin Syr Darya River Basin Mesopotamia Basin Indus River Basin
PSW -0.656*** -0.735*** - - - -
SSW -0.668*** -0.627*** - 0.377* - -
TSW - -0.501** 0.430* - - -
Table 2 Spearman correlation coefficient between temperature and surface water area for the six typical basins
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