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Journal of Arid Land  2025, Vol. 17 Issue (3): 285-303    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-025-0009-7     CSTR: 32276.14.JAL.02500097
Research article     
Impact of urban sprawl on land surface temperature in the Mashhad City, Iran: A deep learning and cloud- based remote sensing analysis
Komeh ZINAT1, Hamzeh SAEID1, Memarian HADI2, Attarchi SARA1, LU Linlin3,4, Naboureh AMIN5,6, Alavipanah KAZEM SEYED1,*()
1Department of Remote Sensing and GIS (Geographic Information System), University of Tehran, Tehran 14178-53933, Iran
2Department of Watershed Management, University of Birjand, Birjand 97174-34765, Iran
3Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China
4International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals, Beijing 100094, China
5Research Center for Digital Mountain and Remote Sensing Application, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
6University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
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Abstract  

The evolution of land use patterns and the emergence of urban heat islands (UHI) over time are critical issues in city development strategies. This study aims to establish a model that maps the correlation between changes in land use and land surface temperature (LST) in the Mashhad City, northeastern Iran. Employing the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, we calculated the LST and extracted land use maps from 1985 to 2020. The convolutional neural network (CNN) approach was utilized to deeply explore the relationship between the LST and land use. The obtained results were compared with the standard machine learning (ML) methods such as support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and linear regression. The results revealed a 1.00°C-2.00°C increase in the LST across various land use categories. This variation in temperature increases across different land use types suggested that, in addition to global warming and climatic changes, temperature rise was strongly influenced by land use changes. The LST surge in built-up lands in the Mashhad City was estimated to be 1.75°C, while forest lands experienced the smallest increase of 1.19°C. The developed CNN demonstrated an overall prediction accuracy of 91.60%, significantly outperforming linear regression and standard ML methods, due to the ability to extract higher level features. Furthermore, the deep neural network (DNN) modeling indicated that the urban lands, comprising 69.57% and 71.34% of the studied area, were projected to experience extreme temperatures above 41.00°C and 42.00°C in the years 2025 and 2030, respectively. In conclusion, the LST predictioin framework, combining the GEE platform and CNN method, provided an effective approach to inform urban planning and to mitigate the impacts of UHI.



Key wordsconvolutional neural network      machine learning      Google Earth Engine      land use change      random forest     
Received: 19 September 2024      Published: 31 March 2025
Corresponding Authors: *Alavipanah KAZEM SEYED (E-mail: salavipa@ut.ac.ir)
Cite this article:

Komeh ZINAT, Hamzeh SAEID, Memarian HADI, Attarchi SARA, LU Linlin, Naboureh AMIN, Alavipanah KAZEM SEYED. Impact of urban sprawl on land surface temperature in the Mashhad City, Iran: A deep learning and cloud- based remote sensing analysis. Journal of Arid Land, 2025, 17(3): 285-303.

URL:

http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-025-0009-7     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2025/V17/I3/285

Fig. 1 Geographical location of the Mashhad City (a), Iran and the overview of the city (b)
Fig. 2 Data processing framework of the study. GEE, Google Earth Engine; TM, thematic mapper; ETM, enhanced thematic mapper; OLI, operational land imager; LCM, land change modeler; CA-ANN, cellular automata-artificial neural network; CONV, convolutional layer.
Fig. 3 Changes of different land use types of the Mashhad City from 1985 to 2020. (a), 1985; (b), 1990; (c), 1995; (d), 2000; (e), 2005; (f), 2010; (g), 2015; (h), 2020.
Accuracy 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Overall accuracy (%) 92.70 89.40 91.00 91.20 91.90 91.00 96.90 94.00
PA (%) 90.00 87.60 91.40 86.80 92.60 92.40 96.60 93.60
UA (%) 88.60 90.00 91.00 89.60 92.60 91.00 96.60 94.20
Table 1 Accuracy measurement for the generated land use dataset
Fig. 4 Producer accuracy (PA) and user accuracy (UA) metrics for different land use types from 1985 to 2020. (a), forest land, (b), built-up land; (c), agricultural land; (d), barren land; (e), rangeland.
Fig. 5 Area changes of different land use types of the Mashhad City from 1985 to 2020
Fig. 6 Projected map of different land use types in the years 2025 (a) and 2030 (b)
Fig. 7 Land surface temperature (LST) maps of the Mashhad City from 1985 to 2020. (a), 1985; (b), 1990; (c), 1995; (d), 2000; (e), 2005; (f), 2010; (g), 2015; (h), 2020.
Fig. 8 Box plots of LST for different land use types from 1985 to 2020. (a), forest land; (b), built-up land; (c), agricultural land; (d), barren land; (e), rangeland. Boxes indicate the IQR (interquartile range, 75th to 25th of the data). The median value is shown as a line within the box. Outlier is shown as black circle. Bars extend to the most extreme value within 1.5×IQR.
Fig. 9 LST maps simulated using the convolutional neural network (CNN) in the years 2025 (a) and 2030 (b)
Fig. 10 Correlation between simulated and observed LST for the year 2020 using four different methods. (a), CNN; (b), random forest (RF); (c), support vector machine (SVM); (d), linear regression. R2, determination of coefficient; MSE, mean squared error.
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