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Journal of Arid Land  2019, Vol. 11 Issue (3): 400-418    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-019-0056-z
    
A cultivated area forecasting approach in artificial oases under climate change and human activities
Shaobo ZHANG1, Fulong CHEN2,*(), Jie CHEN1, Jing WANG2, Shaofei LI3, Aihua LONG2,4
1School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430081, China
2College of Water Conservancy & Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China;
3Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tianjin Agricultural University, Tianjin 300384, China
4State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
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Abstract  

The cultivated area in artificial oases is deeply influenced by global climate change and human activities. Thus, forecasting cultivated area in artificial oases under climate change and human activities is of great significance. In this study, an approach named GD-HM-PSWROAM, consisting of general circulation model downscaling (GD), hydrological model (HM), and planting structureand water resource optimal allocation model (PSWROAM), was developed and applied in the irrigation district of the Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China to forecast the cultivated area tendency. Furthermore, the catchment export of the MIKE11 HD/NAM model was set to the Kensiwate hydrological station. The results show that the downscaling effects of temperature can be fairly satisfying, while those of precipitation may be not satisfying but acceptable. Simulation capacity of the MIKE11 HD/NAM model on the discharge in the Kensiwate hydrological station can meet the requirements of running the PSWROAM. The accuracy of the PSWROAM indicated that this model can perform well in predicting the change of cultivated area at the decadal scale. The cultivated area in the Manas River Basin under current human activities may be generally decreasing due to the climate change. But the adverse effects of climate change can be weakened or even eliminated through positive human activities. The cultivated area in the Manas River Basin may even be increasing under assumed human activities and future climate scenarios. The effects of human activities in thefuture can be generally predicted and quantified according to the cultivated area trends under current humanactivities and the situations in the study area.Overall, it is rational and acceptable to forecast the cultivated area tendency in artificial oases under future climate change and human activities through the GD-HM-PSWROAM approach.



Key wordsGCM downscaling      hydrological model      cultivated area      climate change      human activities      Manas River Basin     
Received: 27 January 2018      Published: 10 June 2019
Corresponding Authors: Fulong CHEN     E-mail: chenfulong1228@sina.com
Cite this article:

Shaobo ZHANG, Fulong CHEN, Jie CHEN, Jing WANG, Shaofei LI, Aihua LONG. A cultivated area forecasting approach in artificial oases under climate change and human activities. Journal of Arid Land, 2019, 11(3): 400-418.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-019-0056-z     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2019/V11/I3/400

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