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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2022, Vol. 14 Issue (2): 139-153    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-022-0053-5     CSTR: 32276.14.s40333-022-0053-5
Research article     
Economic losses from reduced freshwater under future climate scenarios: An example from the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains
ZHANG Xueting1,2, CHEN Rensheng1,3,*(), LIU Guohua1,2
1Qilian Alpine Ecology and Hydrology Research Station, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
2University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
3College of Urban and Environment Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an 710000, China
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Abstract  

As important freshwater resources in alpine basins, glaciers and snow cover tend to decline due to climate warming, thus affecting the amount of water available downstream and even regional economic development. However, impact assessments of the economic losses caused by reductions in freshwater supply are quite limited. This study aims to project changes in glacier meltwater and snowmelt of the Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mountains under future climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 (RCP, Representative Concentration Pathway), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) by applying a hydrological model and estimate the economic losses from future meltwater reduction for industrial, agricultural, service, and domestic water uses combined with the present value method for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s. The results indicate that total annual glacier meltwater and snowmelt will decrease by 65.6% and 74.5% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the 2090s relative to the baseline period (1980-2010), respectively. Compared to the RCP2.6 scenario, the projected economic loss values of total water use from reduced glacier meltwater and snowmelt under the RCP8.5 scenario will increase by 435.10×106 and 537.20×106 CNY in the 2050s and 2090s, respectively, and the cumulative economic loss value for 2099 is approximately 2124.00×106 CNY. We also find that the industrial and agricultural sectors would likely face the largest and smallest economic losses, respectively. The economic loss value of snowmelt in different sectorial sectors is greater than that of glacier meltwater. These findings highlight the need for climate mitigation actions, industrial transformation, and rational water allocation to be considered in decision-making in the Tianshan Mountains in the future.

Key words： glacier meltwater      snowmelt      freshwater supply      water use      economic losses      future climate scenario      climate change      Tianshan Mountains     
Received: 26 August 2021      Published: 28 February 2022
Corresponding Authors: *Chen Rensheng (E-mail: crs2008@lzb.ac.cn)
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ZHANG Xueting, CHEN Rensheng, LIU Guohua. Economic losses from reduced freshwater under future climate scenarios: An example from the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains. Journal of Arid Land, 2022, 14(2): 139-153.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-022-0053-5     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2022/V14/I2/139

Fig. 1 Overview of the Urumqi River catchment
Fig. 2 Changes of annual glacier meltwater (a) and snowmelt (b) of the Urumqi River for the historical period (1961-2016) and projected period (2017-2099) under the three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Shaded area represents the annual variation range projected by the five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. The average value of model ensemble for each RCP scenario is indicated by a thick line.
Fig. 3 Contributions of glacier meltwater (a) and snowmelt (b) to streamflow of the Urumqi River for the historical period (1961-2016) and projected period (2017-2099) under the three RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Shaded area represents the annual variation range projected by the five CMIP5 models. The average value of model ensemble for each RCP scenario is indicated by a thick line.
Meltwater Scenario 2030s 2050s 2070s 2090s
Glacier meltwater (×108 m3) RCP2.6 -5.74 -4.64 -4.15 -3.95
RCP4.5 -5.72 -4.96 -4.27 -3.99
RCP8.5 -5.73 -5.04 -4.35 -4.14
Snowmelt (×108 m3) RCP2.6 -12.66 -10.99 -11.46 -12.88
RCP4.5 -12.66 -10.06 -9.30 -9.28
RCP8.5 -11.65 -9.43 -7.12 -5.70
Table 1 Changes of glacier meltwater and snowmelt of the Urumqi River in the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s relative to the baseline period (1980-2010) under the three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios
Scenario Sectorial water use Economic loss/gain value (×106 CNY)
2030s 2050s 2070s 2090s
RCP2.6 (r=6%) Industrial water use +1.70 -6.20 -2.90 -1.10
Agriculture water use +0.10 -0.50 -0.20 -0.10
Service water use +0.80 -2.70 -1.30 -0.50
Domestic water use +1.10 -4.10 -1.90 -0.70
RCP4.5 (r=3%) Industrial water use +0.05 -11.40 -12.60 -8.20
Agriculture water use +0.01 -0.90 -1.00 -0.70
Service water use +0.02 -5.00 -5.50 -3.60
Domestic water use +0.03 -7.40 -8.30 -5.40
RCP8.5 (r=1%) Industrial water use +0.20 -20.00 -32.70 -28.10
Agriculture water use +0.01 -1.60 -2.60 -2.30
Service water use +0.10 -8.80 -14.30 -12.30
Domestic water use +0.10 -13.10 -21.40 -18.40
Table 2 Estimated economic loss and gain values of glacier meltwater for various sectorial water uses under the three RCP scenarios
Scenario Sectorial water use Economic loss value (×106 CNY)
2030s 2050s 2070s 2090s
RCP2.6 (r=6%) Industrial water use -81.30 -38.20 -10.70 -2.70
Agriculture water use -6.50 -3.10 -0.90 -0.20
Service water use -35.60 -16.80 -4.70 -1.20
Domestic water use -53.30 -25.10 -7.00 -1.80
RCP4.5 (r=3%) Industrial water use -120.30 -106.70 -66.70 -37.30
Agriculture water use -9.70 -8.60 -5.40 -3.00
Service water use -52.80 -46.80 -29.30 -16.30
Domestic water use -78.90 -70.00 -43.80 -24.40
RCP8.5 (r=1%) Industrial water use -193.20 -224.50 -237.70 -222.80
Agriculture water use -15.50 -18.00 -19.10 -17.90
Service water use -84.70 -98.50 -104.20 -97.70
Domestic water use -126.70 -147.30 -155.90 -146.10
Table 3 Estimated economic loss value of snowmelt for various sectorial water uses under the three RCPs scenarios
Fig. 4 Box plots of the estimated economic loss values of total glacier meltwater and snowmelt for different sectorial water uses under the three RCP scenarios. (a), RCP2.6; (b), RCP4.5; (c), RCP8.5. The boxes represent the range from the lower quantile (Q25) to the upper quantile (Q75). The black dots and black horizontal lines represent the means and medians, respectively. The upper and lower whiskers indicate the maximum and minimum values, respectively.
Fig. 5 Estimated economic loss values of glacier meltwater and snowmelt for total water use under the three RCP scenarios for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s
Fig. 6 Projected cumulative economic loss values of glacier meltwater and snowmelt for total water use under the three RCP scenarios from 2020 to 2099
Fig. 7 Changes in temperature (a) and precipitation (b) in the Urumqi River during the historical period (1961-2016) and projected period (2017-2099) under the three RCP scenarios. Shaded area represents the annual variation range projected by the five CMIP5 models. The average value of model ensemble for each RCP scenario is indicated by a thick line.
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