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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2026, Vol. 18 Issue (1): 1-16    DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridl.2026.01.002     CSTR: 32276.14.JAL.20250249
Research article     
Spatiotemporal patterns and driving forces of dust weather events in Central Asia from 2000 to 2020
LIU Yuhan1, ZHAO Yuanyuan1,*(), GAO Guanglei1, DING Guodong1, LI Ning2
1School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
2Guyuan Forestry and Grassland Development Service Center, Ningxia 756000, China
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Abstract  

Central Asia is characterized by an arid climate and widespread desert distribution, with its sustainable development severely constrained by dust events. An objective understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns and driving forces of dust weather is highly important in this area. Based on the meteorological observations from 2000 to 2020, we examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of dust weather in the five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan) via Theil-Sen trend analysis and Geodetector modeling method, quantitatively revealing the influence of environmental factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and vegetation, on the frequency of dust weather. The results showed that: (1) dust weather in Central Asia was mainly distributed in a large ''dust belt'' extending from west to east from northern part of the Caspian lowland desert, and concentrated in basins, plains, and other low-altitude areas. Strong dust weather mainly occurred in northern areas of the Aral Sea and southern edge of Central Asia, with a maximum annual frequency of 21.9%; (2) strong dust weather in Central Asia has fluctuated and slightly decreased since 2001. The highest frequency (1.1%) occurred in spring (from March to June); (3) from 2000 to 2020, changes such as spot shifting and shrinking occurred in the four main source areas (north of the Aral Sea, Kyzylkum Desert, Karakum Desert, and Garabogazköl Bay region), where sandstorms occurred in Central Asia, and northern Caspian lowland desert became the most important low-emission dust source in Central Asia; and (4) the combined effect of soil moisture and air temperature has the most significant influence on dust weather in Central Asia. This study provides a theoretical basis for sand prevention and sand control in Central Asia. In the future, Central Asia should focus on the rational utilization of land and water resources, and implement human interventions such as vegetation restoration and optimization of irrigation methods to curb further desertification in this area.

Key words： Central Asia      dust weather      temporal and spatial distribution      influencing factor      Geodetector     
Received: 28 May 2025      Published: 31 January 2026
Corresponding Authors: *ZHAO Yuanyuan (E-mail: yuanyuan0402@bjfu.edu.cn)
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LIU Yuhan
ZHAO Yuanyuan
GAO Guanglei
DING Guodong
LI Ning
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LIU Yuhan, ZHAO Yuanyuan, GAO Guanglei, DING Guodong, LI Ning. Spatiotemporal patterns and driving forces of dust weather events in Central Asia from 2000 to 2020. Journal of Arid Land, 2026, 18(1): 1-16.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1016/j.jaridl.2026.01.002     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2026/V18/I1/1

Fig. 1 Land use types and major deserts in Central Asia. Note that the figure is based on the standard map (GS(2016)1666) of the National Platform for Common GeoSpatial Information Services (http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/), and the boundary of the standard map has not been modified.
Criterion Interaction effect
q(X1∩X2)<min(q(X1), q(X2)) Nonlinear weakening
min(q(X1), q(X2))≤q(X1∩X2)<max(q(X1), q(X2)) One-factor nonlinear weakening
q(X1∩X2)≥max(q(X1), q(X2)) Two-factor enhancement
q(X1∩X2)=q(X1)+q(X2) Independent
q(X1∩X2)>q(X1)+q(X2) Nonlinear enhancement
Table 1 Interaction between explanatory variables
Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of dust weather in Central Asia in 2000, 2010, and 2020. (a1-a3), weak dust weather; (b1-b3), strong dust weather; (c1-c3), total dust weather.
Fig. 3 Characteristics of monthly variation of dust frequency in Central Asia. (a), frequency of three types of dust weather; (b), frequency of weak dust weather; (c), frequency of strong dust weather; (d), frequency of total dust weather. KZ, Kazakhstan; TI, Tajikistan; KG, Kyrgyzstan; UZ, Uzbekistan; TX, Turkmenistan.
Fig. 4 Characteristics of seasonal variation of dust frequency in Central Asia. (a1-a4), weak dust weather; (b1-b4), strong dust weather; (c1-c4), total dust weather.
Fig. 5 Trend in dust frequency in Central Asia from 2000 to 2020
Fig. 6 Annual dust trends in Central Asia. (a1), spatial distribution of weak dust frequency trend; (a2), inter-annual weak dust frequency; (b1), spatial distribution of strong dust frequency trend; (b2), inter-annual strong dust frequency; (c1), spatial distribution of total dust frequency trend; (c2), inter-annual total dust frequency.
Type Temperature Precipitation Wind speed Soil moisture NDVI Land use type
Weak dust weather 0.099** 0.026** 0.034** 0.055** 0.071** 0.066**
Strong dust weather 0.113** 0.004* 0.030** 0.126** 0.041** 0.078**
Total dust weather 0.128** 0.009* 0.044** 0.091** 0.070** 0.079**
Table 2 Single-factor analysis on dust frequency
Type Parameter Temperature Precipitation Wind speed Soil moisture NDVI Land use type
Weak dust weather Precipitation 0.026
Wind speed 0.073 0.034
NDVI 0.161 0.126 0.071
Soil moisture 0.140 0.263 0.329 0.055
Temperature 0.127 0.288 0.334 0.440 0.099
Land use type 0.122 0.171 0.291 0.376 0.357 0.066
Type Parameter Temperature Precipitation Wind speed Soil moisture NDVI Land use type
Strong
dust weather		 Precipitation 0.004
Wind speed 0.056 0.030
NDVI 0.107 0.145 0.041
Soil moisture 0.204 0.245 0.305 0.126
Temperature 0.156 0.319 0.455 0.422 0.113
Land use type 0.174 0.233 0.220 0.420 0.369 0.078
Type Parameter Temperature Precipitation Wind speed Soil moisture NDVI Land use type
Total
dust weather		 Precipitation 0.009
Wind speed 0.066 0.044
NDVI 0.171 0.139 0.070
Soil moisture 0.175 0.282 0.323 0.091
Temperature 0.166 0.351 0.418 0.464 0.128
Land use type 0.144 0.194 0.278 0.393 0.379 0.079
Table 3 Two-factor analysis on dust frequency
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