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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2024, Vol. 16 Issue (8): 1062-1079    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-024-0082-3     CSTR: 32276.14.s40333-024-0082-3
Research article     
Impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation dynamics on the Mongolian Plateau, East Asia from 2000 to 2023
YAN Yujie1,2, CHENG Yiben1,2,*(), XIN Zhiming1,2,3, ZHOU Junyu1,2, ZHOU Mengyao1,2, WANG Xiaoyu1,2
1School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
2Experimental Center of Desert Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Dengkou 015200, China
3Inner Mongolia Dengkou Desert Ecosystem National Observation Research Station, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Dengkou 015200, China
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Abstract  

The Mongolian Plateau in East Asia is one of the largest contingent arid and semi-arid areas of the world. Under the impacts of climate change and human activities, desertification is becoming increasingly severe on the Mongolian Plateau. Understanding the vegetation dynamics in this region can better characterize its ecological changes. In this study, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images, we calculated the kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI) on the Mongolian Plateau from 2000 to 2023, and analyzed the changes in kNDVI using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall significance test. We further investigated the impact of climate change on kNDVI change using partial correlation analysis and composite correlation analysis, and quantified the effects of climate change and human activities on kNDVI change by residual analysis. The results showed that kNDVI on the Mongolian Plateau was increasing overall, and the vegetation recovery area in the southern region was significantly larger than that in the northern region. About 50.99% of the plateau showed dominant climate-driven effects of temperature, precipitation, and wind speed on kNDVI change. Residual analysis showed that climate change and human activities together contributed to 94.79% of the areas with vegetation improvement. Appropriate human activities promoted the recovery of local vegetation, and climate change inhibited vegetation growth in the northern part of the Mongolian Plateau. This study provides scientific data for understanding the regional ecological environment status and future changes and developing effective ecological protection measures on the Mongolian Plateau.

Key words： kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI)      human activities      climate change      partial correlation analysis      composite correlation analysis      residual analysis      Mongolian Plateau     
Received: 24 April 2024      Published: 31 August 2024
Corresponding Authors: *CHENG Yiben (E-mail: chengyiben@bjfu.edu.cn)
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YAN Yujie
CHENG Yiben
XIN Zhiming
ZHOU Junyu
ZHOU Mengyao
WANG Xiaoyu
Cite this article:

YAN Yujie, CHENG Yiben, XIN Zhiming, ZHOU Junyu, ZHOU Mengyao, WANG Xiaoyu. Impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation dynamics on the Mongolian Plateau, East Asia from 2000 to 2023. Journal of Arid Land, 2024, 16(8): 1062-1079.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-024-0082-3     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2024/V16/I8/1062

Fig. 1 Overview of the Mongolian Plateau based on its ecological zones. Ecological zone data in 2009 were obtained from the Nature Conservancy (https://geospatial.tnc.org).
Driver Judgment criteria
Partial correlation Composite correlation
Temperature Precipitation Wind speed Temperature, precipitation, and wind speed
Temperature P<0.05 P≥0.05 P≥0.05 P<0.05
Precipitation P≥0.05 P<0.05 P≥0.05 P<0.05
Wind speed P≥0.05 P≥0.05 P<0.05 P<0.05
Both temperature and precipitation P<0.05 P<0.05 P≥0.05 P<0.05
Both temperature and wind speed P<0.05 P≥0.05 P<0.05 P<0.05
Both precipitation and wind speed P≥0.05 P<0.05 P<0.05 P<0.05
Temperature, precipitation, and wind speed (weakly driven) P≥0.05 P≥0.05 P≥0.05 P<0.05
Temperature, precipitation, and wind speed (strongly driven) P<0.05 P<0.05 P<0.05 P<0.05
Non-climate factors P≥0.05 P≥0.05 P≥0.05 P≥0.05
Table 1 Determination of climate drivers of kNDVI change
Judgment criteria Relative contribution (%)
Slope(x) Slope($\hat{x}$) Slope(xres) Climate change Human activities
>0 >0 >0 r1 r2
>0 <0 100 0
<0 >0 0 100
<0 <0 <0 r1 r2
<0 >0 100 0
>0 <0 0 100
Table 2 Determination of the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to kNDVI change
Fig. 2 Temporal variation in kNDVI on the Mongolian Plateau during 2000-2023. kNDVI, kernel normalized difference vegetation index.
Fig. 3 Spatial variations in Theil-Sen median (a) and change trend (b) of kNDVI on the Mongolian Plateau during 2000-2023
Fig. 4 Temporal variations in temperature, precipitation, and wind speed on the Mongolian Plateau during 2000-2023
Fig. 5 Spatial variations in partial correlation coefficients and partial correlations between kNDVI and temperature (a1 and b1), kNDVI and precipitation (a2 and b2), and kNDVI and wind speed (a3 and b3) on the Mongolian Plateau during 2000-2023
Fig. 6 Spatial variations in composite correlation coefficient and composite correlation of kNDVI with temperature and precipitation (a1 and b1), temperature and wind speed (a2 and b2), and precipitation and wind speed (a3 and b3) on the Mongolian Plateau during 2000-2023
Fig. 7 Spatial variations in composite correlation coefficient (a) and composite correlation (b) of kNDVI with temperature, precipitation, and wind speed, as well as climate driver of kNDVI change on the Mongolian Plateau during 2000-2023. Number 1 represents temperature; number 2 represents precipitation; number 3 represents wind speed; number 4 represents both temperature and precipitation; number 5 represents both temperature and wind speed; number 6 represents both precipitation and wind speed; number 7 represents temperature, precipitation and wind speed (weakly driven); number 8 represents temperature, precipitation and wind speed (strongly driven); number 9 represents non-climatic factors.
Fig. 8 Spatial variations in Pearson correlation coefficient (a) and correlation (b) of kNDVI with human footprint, as well as human footprint type (c) on the Mongolian Plateau during 2000-2020
Fig. 9 Spatial variations in the relative contribution of climate change (a) and human activities (b) to vegetation improvement, as well as climate change (c) and human activities (d) to vegetation degradation
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