Effects of climate change and land-use changes on spatiotemporal distributions of blue water and green water in Ningxia, Northwest China

doi:10.1007/s40333-021-0074-5

Journal of Arid Land

2021, Vol. 13

Issue (7): 674-687 DOI: 10.1007/s40333-021-0074-5

Research article

Effects of climate change and land-use changes on spatiotemporal distributions of blue water and green water in Ningxia, Northwest China

WU Jun¹^,²^,³, DENG Guoning¹, ZHOU Dongmei¹, ZHU Xiaoyan¹, MA Jing¹, CEN Guozhang¹, JIN Yinli¹, ZHANG Jun¹^,²^,³^,^*(

)

¹College of Resources and Environmental Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China
²Research Center for Water-saving Agriculture in Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730070, China
³Gansu Provincial Key Laboratory of Arid Land Crop Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China

Download:

HTML

PDF(1186KB)
Export: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

Abstract

Water resources are a crucial factor that determines the health of ecosystems and socio-economic development; however, they are under threat due to climate change and human activities. The quantitative assessment of water resources using the concept of blue water and green water can improve regional water resources management. In this study, spatiotemporal distributions of blue water and green water were simulated and analyzed under scenarios of climate change and land-use changes using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Northwest China, between 2009 and 2014. Green water, a leading component of water resources, accounted for more than 69.00% of the total water resources in Ningxia. Blue water and green water showed a single peak trend on the monthly and annual scales during the study period. On the spatial scale, the southern region of Ningxia showed higher blue water and green water resources than the northern region. The spatiotemporal distribution features of blue water, green water, and green water flow had strong correlations with precipitation. Furthermore, the simulation identified the climate change in Ningxia to be more influential on blue water and green water than land-use changes. This study provides a specific scientific foundation to manage water resources in Ningxia when encountered with climate change together with human activities.

Key words： blue water green water climate change human activities SWAT semi-arid region

Received: 09 November 2020 Published: 10 July 2021

Corresponding Authors:

About author: *ZHANG Jun (E-mail: zhangjun@gsau.edu.cn)

	Service
	E-mail this article
	Add to my bookshelf
	Add to citation manager
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	Articles by authors
	Jun WU
	Guoning DENG
	Dongmei ZHOU
	Xiaoyan ZHU
	Jing MA
	Guozhang CEN
	Yinli JIN
	Jun ZHANG

Cite this article:

WU Jun, DENG Guoning, ZHOU Dongmei, ZHU Xiaoyan, MA Jing, CEN Guozhang, JIN Yinli, ZHANG Jun. Effects of climate change and land-use changes on spatiotemporal distributions of blue water and green water in Ningxia, Northwest China. Journal of Arid Land, 2021, 13(7): 674-687.

URL:

http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-021-0074-5 OR http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2021/V13/I7/674

Table 1 Scenario setup in three scenarios

Fig. 1 Comparison of the observed monthly runoff and simulated monthly runoff as well as precipitation in Shizuishan hydrological station from 2009 to 2014

Fig. 2 Monthly averages of blue water, green water, and precipitation during the period 2009-2014

Fig. 3 Relationships of precipitation with blue water and green water on the monthly scale

Fig. 4 Average annual blue water, green water, and precipitation during 2009-2014

Fig. 5 Relationships of precipitation with blue water and green water on the annual scale

Fig. 6 Spatial distributions of annual precipitation (a), blue water (b), green water flow (c), green water storage (d), and green water coefficient (e)

Table 2 Simulated average annual blue water due to climate change and land-use changes

Fig. 7 Spatial variability of blue water simulated under different scenarios in Ningxia

Table 3 Simulated average annual green water flow due to climate change and land-use changes

Fig. 8 Spatial variability of green water flow simulated under different scenarios in Ningxia


[1]	Arnold J G, Fohrer N. 2005. SWAT 2000: Current capabilities and research opportunities in applied watershed modelling. Hydrological Processes, 19(3):563-572. doi: 10.1002/(ISSN)1099-1085

[2]	Baker T J, Miller S N. 2013. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess land use impact on water resources in an East African watershed. Journal of Hydrology, 486:100-111. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.01.041

[3]	Du L, Rajib A, Merwade V. 2018. Large scale spatially explicit modeling of blue and green water dynamics in a temperate mid-latitude basin. Journal of Hydrology, 562:84-102. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.071

[4]	Falkenmark M. 1995. Coping with water scarcity under rapid population growth. In: Conference of SADC Minister. Pretoria, South Africa, 23-24.

[5]	Falkenmark M, Rockström J. 2006. The new blue and green water paradigm: breaking new ground for water resources planning and management. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 132:129-132. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2006)132:3(129)

[6]	Falkenmark M, Rockström J. 2010. Building water resilience in the face of global change: from a blue-only to a green-blue water approach to land-water management. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 136(6):606-610. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000118

[7]	Fan H, Xiao H, Ma J, et al. 2017. Study on restoring computation of runoff based on VIC model. Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (Natural Science Edition), 38(2):7-11. (in Chinese)

[8]	Gao X, Zuo D P, Xu Z, et al. 2018. Evaluation of blue and green water resources in the upper Yellow River basin of China. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 379:159-167.

[9]	Haddeland I, Heinke J, Biemans H, et al. 2014. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(9):3251-3256.

[10]	Hoekstra A Y, Mekonnen M M. 2012. The water footprint of humanity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109(9):3232-3237.

[11]	Hoekstra A Y, Mekonnen M M, Chapagain A K, et al. 2012. Global monthly water scarcity: blue water footprints versus blue water availability. PLoS ONE, 7(2):e32688, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0032688. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0032688

[12]	Huang H, Han Y, Jia D. 2019. Impact of climate change on the blue water footprint of agriculture on a regional scale. Water Science and Technology Water Supply, 19(1):52-59. doi: 10.2166/ws.2018.046

[13]	Johansson E L, Fader M, Seaquist J W, et al. 2016. Green and blue water demand from large-scale land acquisitions in Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113(41):11471-11476.

[14]	Karandish F, Hoekstra A Y. 2017. Informing national food and water security policy through water footprint assessment: the case of Iran. Water, 9(11):831, doi: 10.3390/w9110831. doi: 10.3390/w9110831

[15]	Kummu M, Guillaume J, Moel H D, et al. 2016. The world's road to water scarcity: shortage and stress in the 20th century and pathways toward sustainability. Scientific Reports, 6:38495, doi: 10.1038/srep38495. doi: 10.1038/srep38495 pmid: 27934888

[16]	Li S, Ma W, Gu Y, et al. 2016. Analysis of spatial-temporal changes in landscape fragmentation in the Ningxia Yellow River Valley. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 36(11):3312-3320. (in Chinese)

[17]	Liang J, Liu Q, Zhang H, et al. 2020. Interactive effects of climate variability and human activities on blue and green water scarcity in rapidly developing watershed. Journal of Cleaner Production, 265:121834, doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121834. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121834

[18]	Liu G, Shi L, Li K. 2018. Equitable allocation of blue and green water footprints based on land-use types: A case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Sustainability, 10(10):3556, doi: 10.3390/su10103556. doi: 10.3390/su10103556

[19]	Lyu L, Wang X, Sun C, et al. 2019. Quantifying the Effect of Land Use Change and Climate Variability on Green Water Resources in the Xihe River Basin, Northeast China. Sustainability, 11(2):338, doi: 10.3390/su11020338. doi: 10.3390/su11020338

[20]	Ma X, Sun X, Chen L. 2014. Application of 3S technology in survey of crop planting structure of Ningxia Yellow River irrigation region. Yellow River, 36(11):135-137. (in Chinese)

[21]	Mekonnen M M, Hoekstra A Y. 2016. Four billion people facing severe water scarcity. Science Advances, 2(2):e1500323, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1500323. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1500323

[22]	Moriasi D N, Arnold J G, Van Liew M W. 2007. Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Transactions of the Asabe, 50(3):885-900. doi: 10.13031/2013.23153

[23]	Nash J E, Sutcliffe J V. 1970. River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I-A discussion of principles. Journal of Hydrology, 10(3):282-290. doi: 10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6

[24]	Neitsch S L, Arnold J G, Kiniry J R, et al. 2011. Soil and water assessment tool theoretical documentation version 2009. College Station: Texas Water Resources Institute. [2020-06-02]. https://swat.tamu.edu/media/99192/swat2009-theory.pdf.

[25]	Ningxia Water Conservancy. 2009-2014. Ningxia Water Resources Bulletin. Yinchuan: Ningxia Water Conservancy. [2020-06-08]. http://slt.nx.gov.cn/xxgk_281/.

[26]	Pandey B K, Khare D, Kawasaki A, et al. 2018. Climate change impact assessment on blue and green water by coupling of representative CMIP5 climate models with physical based hydrological model. Water Resource Management, 3(1):141-158. doi: 10.1007/BF00872469

[27]	Qin L, Jin Y, Duan P, et al. 2016. Field-based experimental water footprint study of sunflower growth in a semiarid region of China. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture, 96(9):3266-3273. doi: 10.1002/jsfa.2016.96.issue-9

[28]	Quinteiro P, Rafael S, Villanueva-Rey P, et al. 2018. A characterization model to address the environmental impact of green water flows for water scarcity footprints. Science of the Total Environment, 626:1210-1218. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.201

[29]	Schuol J, Abbaspour K C, Yang H, et al. 2008. Modeling blue and green water availability in Africa. Water Resource Research, 44(7):212-221.

[30]	Sellami H, Benabdallah S, Jeunesse L I. 2016. Quantifying hydrological responses of small Mediterranean a catchment under climate change projections. Science of the Total Environment, 543:924-936. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.006

[31]	Serur B A. 2020. Modeling blue and green water resources availability at the basin and sub-basin level under changing climate in the Weyb River basin in Ethiopia. Scientific African, 7:e00299, doi: 10.1016/j.sciaf. 2020.e00299. doi: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2020.e00299

[32]	Shrestha M K, Recknagela F, Frizenschafb J. 2016. Assessing SWAT models based on single and multi-site calibration for the simulation of flow and nutrient loads in the semi-arid onkaparinga catchment in South Australia. Agricultural water Management, 175:61-71. doi: 10.1016/j.agwat.2016.02.009

[33]	Shrestha S, Bhatta B, Shrestha M, et al. 2018. Integrated assessment of the climate and landuse change impact on hydrology and water quality in the Songkhram River Basin, Thailand. Science of the Total Environment, 643:1610-1622. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.306

[34]	Tan M L, Gassman P W, Yang X Y, et al. 2020. A review of SWAT applications, performance and future needs for simulation of hydro-climatic extremes. Advances in Water Resources, 143:103662, doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2020.103662. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2020.103662

[35]	Veetti A V, Mishra A K. 2016. Water security assessment using blue and green water footprint concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 542:589-602. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.09.032

[36]	Velpuri N M, Senay G B. 2017. Partitioning evapotranspiration into green and blue water sources in the Conterminous United States. Scientific Report, 7(1):6191, doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-06359-w.

[37]	Xie P, Zhuo L, Yang X, et al. 2020. Spatial-temporal variations in blue and green water resources, water footprints and water scarcities in a large river basin: a case for the Yellow River Basin. Journal of Hydrology, 590:125222, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125222. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125222

[38]	Xu D M, Xu X Z, Wang G H, et al. 2017. Variations in soil organic carbon content and distribution during natural restoration succession on the desert steppe in Ningxia. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 26(8):35-42. (in Chinese)

[39]	Yang Z, Gao C, Zang S, et al. 2017. Assessing SWIM model applicability in the black soil region of Northeast China: A case study in the middle and upper reaches of the Wuyuer River Basin. Acta Geographica Sinica, 72(3):457-470. (in Chinese)

[40]	Yuan Z, Xu J, Meng X, et al. 2019. Impact of Climate Variability on Blue and Green Water Flows in the Erhai Lake Basin of Southwest China. Water, 11(3):424, doi: 10.3390/w11030424. doi: 10.3390/w11030424

[41]	Zang C, Liu J, Velde M, et al. 2012. Assessment of spatial and temporal patterns of green and blue water flows in inland river basins in Northwest China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16(8):2859-2870. doi: 10.5194/hess-16-2859-2012

[42]	Zang C, Mao G. 2019. A spatial and temporal study of the green and blue water flow distribution in typical ecosystems and its ecosystem services function in an arid basin. Water, 11(1):97, doi: 10.3390/w11010097. doi: 10.3390/w11010097

[43]	Zhang J, Jia S F. 2013. Study on difference of blue-green water in Huangshui basin and green water under different types of land use based on SWAT model. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 24(4):7-11.

[44]	Zhang W, Zha X, Li J, et al. 2014. Spatiotemporal change of blue water and green water resources in the headwater of Yellow River Basin, China. Water Resource Management, 28(13):4715-4732. doi: 10.1007/s11269-014-0769-x

[45]	Zhao A, Zhao Y, Liu X, et al. 2016a. Impact of human activities and climate variability on green and blue water resources in the Weihe River Basin of Northwest China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 36(4):571-579. (in Chinese)

[46]	Zhao A, Zhu X, Liu X, et al. 2016b. Impacts of land use change and climate variability on green and blue water resources in the Weihe River Basin of northwest China. Catena, 137:318-327. doi: 10.1016/j.catena.2015.09.018

[47]	Zhu K, Xie Z B, Zhao Y, et al. 2018. The Assessment of green water based on the swat model: a case study in the Hai River Basin, China. Water, 10(6):798, doi: 10.3390/w10060798. doi: 10.3390/w10060798

[1]	ZHAO Xuqin, LUO Min, MENG Fanhao, SA Chula, BAO Shanhu, BAO Yuhai. Spatiotemporal changes of gross primary productivity and its response to drought in the Mongolian Plateau under climate change[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2024, 16(1): 46-70.

[2]	Mitiku A WORKU, Gudina L FEYISA, Kassahun T BEKETIE, Emmanuel GARBOLINO. Projecting future precipitation change across the semi-arid Borana lowland, southern Ethiopia[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(9): 1023-1036.

[3]	QIN Guoqiang, WU Bin, DONG Xinguang, DU Mingliang, WANG Bo. Evolution of groundwater recharge-discharge balance in the Turpan Basin of China during 1959-2021[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(9): 1037-1051.

[4]	MA Jinpeng, PANG Danbo, HE Wenqiang, ZHANG Yaqi, WU Mengyao, LI Xuebin, CHEN Lin. Response of soil respiration to short-term changes in precipitation and nitrogen addition in a desert steppe[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(9): 1084-1106.

[5]	ZHANG Hui, Giri R KATTEL, WANG Guojie, CHUAI Xiaowei, ZHANG Yuyang, MIAO Lijuan. Enhanced soil moisture improves vegetation growth in an arid grassland of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(7): 871-885.

[6]	ZHANG Zhen, XU Yangyang, LIU Shiyin, DING Jing, ZHAO Jinbiao. Seasonal variations in glacier velocity in the High Mountain Asia region during 2015-2020[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(6): 637-648.

[7]	GAO Xiang, WEN Ruiyang, Kevin LO, LI Jie, YAN An. Heterogeneity and non-linearity of ecosystem responses to climate change in the Qilian Mountains National Park, China[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(5): 508-522.

[8]	Reza DEIHIMFARD, Sajjad RAHIMI-MOGHADDAM, Farshid JAVANSHIR, Alireza PAZOKI. Quantifying major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield in dryland environments[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(5): 545-561.

[9]	Sakine KOOHI, Hadi RAMEZANI ETEDALI. Future meteorological drought conditions in southwestern Iran based on the NEX-GDDP climate dataset[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(4): 377-392.

[10]	Mehri SHAMS GHAHFAROKHI, Sogol MORADIAN. Investigating the causes of Lake Urmia shrinkage: climate change or anthropogenic factors?[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(4): 424-438.

[11]	ZHANG Yixin, LI Peng, XU Guoce, MIN Zhiqiang, LI Qingshun, LI Zhanbin, WANG Bin, CHEN Yiting. Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme precipitation on the Loess Plateau of China facing the precipitation process[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(4): 439-459.

[12]	WU Jingyan, LUO Jungang, ZHANG Han, YU Mengjie. Driving forces behind the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of land-use and land-cover change: A case study of the Weihe River Basin, China[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(3): 253-273.

[13]	Adnan ABBAS, Asher S BHATTI, Safi ULLAH, Waheed ULLAH, Muhammad WASEEM, ZHAO Chengyi, DOU Xin, Gohar ALI. Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(3): 274-296.

[14]	ZHAO Lili, LI Lusheng, LI Yanbin, ZHONG Huayu, ZHANG Fang, ZHU Junzhen, DING Yibo. Monitoring vegetation drought in the nine major river basins of China based on a new developed Vegetation Drought Condition Index[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(12): 1421-1438.

[15]	CAO Yijie, MA Yonggang, BAO Anming, CHANG Cun, LIU Tie. Evaluation of the water conservation function in the Ili River Delta of Central Asia based on the InVEST model[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(12): 1455-1473.

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed