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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2023, Vol. 15 Issue (4): 439-459    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-023-0098-0     CSTR: 32276.14.s40333-023-0098-0
Research article     
Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme precipitation on the Loess Plateau of China facing the precipitation process
ZHANG Yixin1, LI Peng1,*(), XU Guoce1, MIN Zhiqiang2, LI Qingshun2, LI Zhanbin1,3, WANG Bin1, CHEN Yiting1
1State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulic in Northwest Arid Region, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China
2Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Ecological Hydrology and Disaster Prevention in Arid Regions, Northwest Survey and Planning Institute of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Xi'an 710048, China
3State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling 712100, China
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Abstract  

The preceding and succeeding precipitation (PSP) often act together with extreme precipitation (EP), in turn, causing floods, which is an objective component that is often overlooked with regard to summer flood hazards in the arid region of Northwest China. In this study, event-based extreme precipitation (EEP) was defined as continuous precipitation that includes at least one day of EP. We analyzed the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of four EEP types (front EEP, late EEP, balanced EEP, and single day EEP) across the Loess Plateau (LP) based on data acquired from 87 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2019. Precipitation on the LP basically maintained a spatial pattern of "low in the northwest region and high in the southeast region", and EP over the last 10 a increased significantly. The cumulative precipitation percentage of single day EEP was 34% and was dominant for 60 a, while the cumulative precipitation percentage of front, late, and balanced EEP types associated with PSP accounted for 66%, which confirms to the connotation of EEP. The cumulative frequencies of front and late EEP types were 23% and 21%, respectively, while the cumulative frequency of balanced EEP had the lowest value at only 13%. Moreover, global warming could lead to more single day EEP across the LP, and continuous EEP could increase in the northwestern region and decrease in the eastern region in the future. The concept of process-oriented EP could facilitate further exploration of disaster-causing processes associated with different types of EP, and provide a theoretical basis for deriving precipitation disaster chains and construction of disaster cluster characteristics.

Key words： temporal and spatial variation      climate change      extreme precipitation (EP)      event-based extreme precipitation (EEP)      Loess Plateau     
Received: 08 June 2022      Published: 30 April 2023
Corresponding Authors: *LI Peng (E-mail: lipeng74@163.com)
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ZHANG Yixin
LI Peng
XU Guoce
MIN Zhiqiang
LI Qingshun
LI Zhanbin
WANG Bin
CHEN Yiting
Cite this article:

ZHANG Yixin, LI Peng, XU Guoce, MIN Zhiqiang, LI Qingshun, LI Zhanbin, WANG Bin, CHEN Yiting. Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme precipitation on the Loess Plateau of China facing the precipitation process. Journal of Arid Land, 2023, 15(4): 439-459.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-023-0098-0     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2023/V15/I4/439

Fig. 1 Overview of the study area and spatial distribution of the four geomorphological zones. Zone I, northern aeolian sandy agricultural irrigation area; Zone II, hilly and gully area; Zone III, plateau and gully area; Zone IV, eastern river valley and rocky mountainous area.
Index Definition Unit
Annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) Sum of annual precipitation mm
Annual total erosive precipitation (R12TOT) Sum of precipitation≥12.0 mm mm
Annual total extreme heavy precipitation (R50TOT) Sum of precipitation≥50.0 mm mm
Total precipitation on very wet days (90pTOT) Sum of precipitation with daily precipitation≥90th percentile mm
Wet days (Pday) Sum of annual precipitation days d
Wet days in flood season (FSPday) Sum of precipitation days in flood season d
Simple precipitation intensity index (SDII) Average precipitation in precipitation days mm/d
Table 1 Definition of extreme precipitation (EP) indices used in this study
Fig. 2 Identification and classification of EEP types. t0, t1, and tn represent the start date, end date, and any day of EEP, respectively. The red bars denote extreme precipitation (EP; P≥the 90th percentile in the continuous precipitation series) and the green bars represent non EP (P<the 90th percentile in the continuous precipitation series).
Type Element Signal SNR RMSE RTVAR
Precipitation average 1960-1989 15.1 0.41 19.4000 35.1000
1970-1999 12.0 0.37 13.5000 38.6000
1980-2009 18.3 0.43 20.3000 50.5000
1990-2019 14.9 0.38 24.6000 40.1000
2000-2019 15.6 0.32 19.1000 46.4000
2010-2019 17.2 0.37 19.9000 40.6000
Cumulative EEP frequency Front EEP 10.9 0.23 0.0071 0.0155
Late EEP 9.7 0.17 0.0068 0.0142
Balanced EEP 11.4 0.21 0.0082 0.0193
Single day EEP 9.5 0.19 0.0067 0.0167
Cumulative EEP volume Front EEP 8.9 0.24 0.0072 0.0199
Late EEP 11.3 0.18 0.0070 0.0224
Balanced EEP 11.9 0.23 0.0056 0.0152
Single day EEP 10.4 0.21 0.0091 0.0221
Table 2 Cross-validation results of spatial interpolation of precipitation
Fig. 3 Changes of the spatial patterns of precipitation during 1960-1989 (a), 1970-1999 (b), 1980-2009 (c), 1990-2019 (d), 2000-2019 (e), and 2010-2019 (f)
PRCPTOT
(mm)		 1960-1989 1970-1999 1980-2009 1990-2019 2000-2019 2010-2019
Area ratio (%) Change rate (%) Area ratio (%) Change rate between 1960-1989 and 1970-1999 (%) Area ratio (%) Change rate between 1970-1999 and 1980-2009 (%) Area ratio (%) Change rate between 1980-2009 and 1990-2019 (%) Area ratio (%) Change rate between 1990-2019 and 2000-2019 (%) Area ratio (%) Change rate between 1960-1989 and 2010-2019 (%)
≤200.0 5.31 - 5.08 -4.33 5.82 12.71 4.84 -16.84 4.61 -4.75 3.81 -28.25
200.0-300.0 13.53 - 14.30 5.69 13.81 -3.55 11.10 -19.62 11.09 -0.09 9.31 -31.19
300.0-400.0 14.27 - 16.05 12.47 16.59 3.25 16.46 -0.78 14.97 -9.05 12.21 -14.44
400.0-500.0 23.08 - 26.77 15.99 27.51 2.69 29.26 6.36 26.69 -8.78 20.51 -11.14
500.0-600.0 24.11 - 25.37 5.23 26.50 4.26 28.63 8.04 29.93 4.54 36.44 51.14
600.0-700.0 15.75 - 10.25 -34.92 8.12 -26.23 8.47 4.31 10.98 29.63 14.66 -6.92
≥700.0 3.95 - 2.18 -44.81 1.65 -32.12 1.24 -24.85 1.73 39.52 3.06 -22.53
Table 3 Changes of typical isoprecipitation belts in the study area
90pTOT
(mm)		 1960-1989 1970-1999 1980-2009 1990-2019 2000-2019 2010-2019
Area ratio (%) Change rate (%) Area ratio (%) Change rate between 1960-1989 and 1970-1999 (%) Area ratio (%) Change rate between 1970-1999 and 1980-2009 (%) Area ratio (%) Change rate between 1980-2009 and 1990-2019 (%) Area ratio (%) Change rate between 1990-2019 and 2000-2019 (%) Area ratio (%) Change rate between 1960-1989 and 2010-2019 (%)
≤100.0 6.01 - 4.71 -21.63 5.43 15.29 3.85 -29.10 4.56 18.44 3.03 -49.58
100.0-200.0 35.09 - 33.10 -5.67 34.66 4.71 27.61 -20.34 30.25 9.56 20.34 -42.03
200.0-300.0 47.56 - 51.38 8.03 51.83 0.88 59.83 15.44 56.97 -4.78 49.12 3.28
300.0-400.0 10.80 - 10.31 -4.54 7.56 -26.67 8.24 8.99 7.67 -6.92 26.33 143.80
≥400.0 0.54 - 0.50 -7.41 0.52 4.00 0.47 -9.62 0.54 14.89 1.17 116.67
Table 4 Changes of typical EP belts in the study area
Fig. 4 Variations in precipitation and extreme precipitation (EP) in Zone I (a1-a4), Zone II (b1-b4), Zone III (c1-c4), and Zone IV (d1-d4) from 1960 to 2019
Index Zone I Zone II Zone III Zone IV Total area
Slope# Mean Slope# Mean Slope# Mean Slope# Mean Slope# Mean
PRCPTOT (mm) 0.60 246.00 1.08 438.50 0.42 409.20 -0.26 536.10 0.38 407.50
R12TOT (mm) 0.48 127.10 0.98 255.60 0.42 204.20 -0.09 343.20 0.42 232.50
R50TOT (mm) 0.01 18.40 0.17 38.80 0.16* 19.60 -0.38* 72.30 -0.01 37.30
90pTOT (mm) 0.37 127.30 0.52 216.20 0.33 196.60 -0.22 277.70 0.33 204.40
Pday (d) -0.04 54.20 -0.12* 78.20 -0.15 90.10 -0.25* 83.60 -0.15* 76.50
FSPday (d) -0.01 32.60 -0.06 42.40 -0.10* 47.20 -0.12* 42.50 -0.08* 41.20
SDII (mm/d) 0.01* 4.40 0.02* 5.60 0.01* 4.50 0.02* 6.40 0.01* 5.22
Table 5 Inter-annual variation trends of EP indices from 1960 to 2019
Fig. 5 Characteristics of the intra-annual change of balanced EEP (a), front EEP (b), late EEP (c), and single day EEP (d) from 1960 to 2019
Fig. 6 Cumulative frequency of the four EEP types in Zone I (a), Zone II (b), Zone III (c), and Zone IV (d)
Fig. 7 Cumulative precipitation percentage of the four EEP types in Zone I (a), Zone II (b), Zone III (c), and Zone IV (d)
Fig. 8 Spatial distribution of cumulative frequency and cumulative precipitation percentage of single day EEP (a1 and a2, respectively), front EEP (b1 and b2, respectively), late EEP (c1 and c2, respectively), and balanced EEP (d1 and d2, respectively)
Fig. 9 Cumulative precipitation distribution ratio of the four EEP types during different periods
Fig. 10 Variation trend of precipitation (a), precipitation days (b), and precipitation frequencies (c) of the four EEP types. MMK-Z value is the standard normalization statistic in the modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test. The box represents the significant characteristics of precipitation trends for the four EEP types at stations in different zones. The short border of the boxes represents the range from the lower quantile (Q25) to the upper quantile (Q75). The dots and horizontal lines inside the boxes represent the means and medians, respectively. The dots outside the boxes represent outliers. The upper and lower whiskers indicate the maximum and minimum values, respectively.
Fig. 11 Spatial distribution of the C value. C value represents the contribution of EP to EEP.
EEP type Index Zone I Zone II Zone III Zone IV
Correlation
coefficient		 Sig Correlation
coefficient		 Sig Correlation
coefficient		 Sig Correlation
coefficient		 Sig
Front EEP Precipitation -0.15 0.57 0.27* 0.98 0.44 0.77 -0.23 0.59
Day -0.21 0.71 0.10 0.45 0.38 0.63 -0.29 0.43
Frequency -0.15 0.81 0.10* 0.95 0.41 0.34 -0.25 0.82
Late EEP Precipitation 0.25* 0.99 0.25 0.46 0.25* 1.00 -0.34 0.76
Day 0.35* 0.98 0.43 0.35 0.36 0.67 -0.46 0.35
Frequency 0.18 0.54 0.20 0.79 0.17 0.56 -0.09 0.75
Balanced EEP Precipitation 0.11 0.43 0.23 0.58 0.18 0.83 -0.27* 0.98
Day 0.31 0.33 0.13 0.49 0.26 0.38 -0.36* 0.97
Frequency 0.08 0.50 0.19 0.42 0.13 0.72 -0.20 0.65
Single
day EEP		 Precipitation 0.44* 1.00 0.49* 1.00 0.40* 1.00 0.51* 1.00
Day 0.49* 0.99 0.42* 0.99 0.38* 1.00 0.49* 1.00
Frequency 0.31* 0.99 0.41* 0.99 0.38* 1.00 0.44* 0.99
Table 6 Correlations between EEP types and temperature on the Loess Plateau
Fig. 12 Wavelet coherence analysis of the four EEP types and temperature in Zone I (a1-a4), Zone II (b1-b4), Zone III (c1-c4), and Zone IV (d1-d4). The thick black contour designates the correlations beyond the 95% significance level against the red noise. The cone of influence where edge effects might distort the picture is shown as a lighter shade. The relative phase relationship is indicated by the arrow direction, with in-phase pointing right and anti-phase pointing left. The color bar on the right denotes correlation coefficient, with 0.0 representing no correlation and 1.0 indicating strong relationship.
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