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Journal of Arid Land  2017, Vol. 9 Issue (1): 65-75    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-016-0022-y
Orginal Article     
Meteorological drought features in northern and northwestern parts of Mexico under different climate change scenarios
ESCALANTE-SANDOVAL Carlos*(), NU?EZ-GARCIA Pedro
Faculty of Engineering, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Cd.Universitaria, Coyoacan04510, Mexico
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Abstract  

Meteorological drought has been an inevitable natural disaster throughout Mexican history and the northern and northwestern parts of Mexico (i.e., the studied area), where the mean annual precipitation (MAP) is less than 500 mm, have suffered even more from droughts in the past. The aim of this study was to conduct a meteorological drought analysis of the available MAP data (1950-2013) from 649 meteorological stations selected from the studied area and to predict the drought features under the different IPCC-prescribed climate change scenarios. To determine the long-term drought features, we collected 1×104 synthetic samples using the periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) model for each rainfall series. The simulations first consider the present prevailing precipitation conditions (i.e., the average from 1950 to 2013) and then the precipitation anomalies under IPCC-prescribed RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP 8.5 scenario. The results indicated that the climate changes under the prescribed scenarios would significantly increase the duration and intensity of droughts. The most severe impacts may occur in the central plateau and in the Baja California Peninsula. Thus, it will be necessary to establish adequate protective measures for the sustainable management of water resources in these regions.



Key wordsmeteorological drought      synthetic simulation      climate change      water stress      evapotranspiration     
Received: 24 December 2015      Published: 31 July 2017
Corresponding Authors: ESCALANTE-SANDOVAL Carlos     E-mail: caes@unam.mx
Cite this article:

ESCALANTE-SANDOVAL Carlos, NU?EZ-GARCIA Pedro. Meteorological drought features in northern and northwestern parts of Mexico under different climate change scenarios. Journal of Arid Land, 2017, 9(1): 65-75.

URL:

http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-016-0022-y     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2017/V9/I1/65

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