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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2025, Vol. 17 Issue (2): 182-199    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-025-0090-y     CSTR: 32276.14.JAL.0250090y
Research article     
Impact of climate change and land use/cover change on water yield in the Liaohe River Basin, Northeast China
LYU Leting1,2,*(), JIANG Ruifeng1, ZHENG Defeng1,2, LIANG Liheng3
1College of Geosciences, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China
2Dalian Key Laboratory of Agro-Meteorological Disaster Risk Prevention and Control, Dalian 116029, China
3College of Geographic Sciences, Changchun Normal University, Changchun 130032, China
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Abstract  

The Liaohe River Basin (LRB) in Northeast China, a critical agricultural and industrial zone, has faced escalating water resource pressures in recent decades due to rapid urbanization, intensified land use changes, and climate variability. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of water yield and its driving factors is essential for sustainable water resource management in this ecologically sensitive region. This study employed the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of water yield in the LRB (dividing into six sub-basins from east to west: East Liaohe River Basin (ELRB), Taizi River Basin (TRB), Middle Liaohe River Basin (MLRB), West Liaohe River Basin (WLRB), Xinkai River Basin (XRB), and Wulijimuren River Basin (WRB)) from 1993 to 2022, with a focus on the impacts of climate change and land use cover change (LUCC). Results revealed that the LRB had an average annual precipitation of 483.15 mm, with an average annual water yield of 247.54 mm, both showing significant upward trend over the 30-a period. Spatially, water yield demonstrated significant heterogeneity, with higher values in southeastern sub-basins and lower values in northwestern sub-basins. The TRB exhibited the highest water yield due to abundant precipitation and favorable topography, while the WRB recorded the lowest water yield owing to arid conditions and sparse vegetation. Precipitation played a significant role in shaping the annual fluctuations and total volume of water yield, with its variability exerting substantially greater impacts than actual evapotranspiration (AET) and LUCC. However, LUCC, particularly cultivated land expansion and grassland reduction, significantly reshaped the spatial distribution of water yield by modifying surface runoff and infiltration patterns. This study provides critical insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of water yield in the LRB, emphasizing the synergistic effects of climate change and land use change, which are pivotal for optimizing water resource management and advancing regional ecological conservation.

Key words： Liaohe River Basin      water yield      Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model      climate change      land use cover change (LUCC)     
Received: 25 July 2024      Published: 28 February 2025
Corresponding Authors: *LYU Leting (E-mail: lvleting@lnnu.edu.cn)
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LYU Leting
JIANG Ruifeng
ZHENG Defeng
LIANG Liheng
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LYU Leting, JIANG Ruifeng, ZHENG Defeng, LIANG Liheng. Impact of climate change and land use/cover change on water yield in the Liaohe River Basin, Northeast China. Journal of Arid Land, 2025, 17(2): 182-199.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-025-0090-y     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2025/V17/I2/182

Fig. 1 Overview of the Liaohe River Basin (LRB), China. WLRB, West Liaohe River Basin; WRB, Wulijimuren River Basin; XRB, Xinkai River Basin; MLRB, Middle Liaohe River Basin; ELRB, East Liaohe River Basin; TRB, Taizi River Basin.
Data Indicator Resolution Year Data source
Terrain data Digital elevation model (DEM, m) 30 m 2020 Geospatial Data Cloud Platform, Chinese Academy of Sciences (https://www.gscloud.cn/)
Climate data Daily precipitation (mm) 1 km 1993-2022 China National Meteorological Information Center (https://data.cma.cn/)
Daily maximum temperature (°C)
Daily minimum temperature (°C)
Solar radiation (MJ/(m2•d)) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (https://www.fao.org/home/zh)
Land use data Land use/land cover (LULC) 30 m 1995, 2000, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2015, 2018, and 2020 Resource and Environmental Science Data Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences (http://www.resdc.cn)
Soil data Soil texture 1 km 2009 Harmonized World Soil Database (http://iiasa.ac.at/models-tools-data/hwsd)
Soil organic carbon (%) 1 km 2009 National Tibetan Plateau Data Center
https://data.tpdc.ac.cn
Soil depth (mm) 1 km 2016 International Soil Reference and Information Centre https://www.isric.org
Table 1 Relevant basic data sources
Land use type Kc LULC_veg RD (mm)
Cultivated land 0.65 1 300
Forest land 1.00 1 3000
Grassland 0.65 1 2000
Water body 1.00 0 1
Construction land 0.30 0 1
Unused land 0.30 0 1
Table 2 Biophysical coefficients for the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model
Fig. 2 Precipitation, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and water yield in the LRB from 1993 to 2022
Basin Area
(×104 km2)		 Percentage of area (%) Average annual precipitation (mm) Average annual AET (mm) Average annual water yield (mm) Average annual water yield volume
(×109 m3)		 Average water yield rate (%)
LRB 21.46 100.00 483.15 235.59 247.54 53.13 26.84
Table 3 Precipitation, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and water yield of the LRB from 1993 to 2022
Sub-basin Area
(×104 km2)		 Percentage of area (%) Average annual precipitation (mm) Average annual AET (mm) Average annual water yield (mm) Average annual water yield volume
(×109 m3)		 Average water yield rate (%)
ELRB 1.11 5.15 587.21 216.59 370.64 4.10 40.43
TRB 2.60 12.09 710.37 275.46 434.96 11.29 47.67
MLRB 4.81 22.41 573.69 244.29 329.42 15.84 36.02
WLRB 5.22 24.31 416.37 230.70 185.65 9.69 19.93
XRB 4.08 19.02 387.38 222.12 165.22 6.75 17.67
WRB 3.65 17.01 373.52 223.85 149.66 5.46 15.79
Table 4 Precipitation, AET, and water yield of the six sub-basins from 1993 to 2022
Fig. 3 Spatial variation of water yield in the LRB from 1993 to 2022
Fig. 4 Clustering characteristics of water yield in the LRB from 1993 to 2022. (a), 1993; (b), 2000; (c), 2005; (d), 2010; (e), 2015; (f), 2022; (g), 1993-2022.
Land use type Average water yield rate (%)
ELRB TRB MLRB WLRB XRB WRB
Cultivated land 43.97 54.51 41.83 26.85 25.87 23.10
Forest land 34.65 45.97 33.74 16.60 14.12 12.47
Grassland 38.89 50.73 26.54 19.44 17.05 15.89
Water body 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Construction land 35.58 46.33 31.47 12.47 11.55 9.27
Unused land 30.88 40.23 20.90 9.41 10.78 9.29
Table 5 Water yield rate of different land use types in each sub-basin of the LRB from 1993 to 2022
Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of precipitation (a1-a3), AET (b1-b3), and water yield (c1-c3) across wet year, normal year, and dry year in the LRB
Fig. 6 Land use change (a) and corresponding change in water yield (b) of the LRB from 1993 to 2022
Land use type Area change (km2)
ELRB TRB MLRB WLRB XRB WRB
Cultivated land 58.03 -831.99 26.03 270.01 981.22 512.81
Forest land 70.70 -192.00 349.39 -111.14 79.95 91.64
Grassland -121.08 -107.18 -993.91 -431.97 -1015.84 605.79
Water body -97.38 118.83 -281.23 -50.48 -65.36 -0.78
Construction land 54.86 1102.85 473.65 218.51 -62.83 82.47
Unused land 33.85 -89.48 422.56 103.54 81.47 -1292.31
Table 6 Land use change of each sub-basin in the LRB from 1993 to 2022
Land use type Water yield change (×109 m3)
ELRB TRB MLRB WLRB XRB WRB
Cultivated land 0.28 -4.58 0.14 0.56 2.32 1.19
Forest land 0.17 -0.81 0.48 -0.37 0.21 0.14
Grassland -0.47 -0.60 -2.98 -0.54 -1.82 0.95
Water body 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Construction land 0.24 5.26 1.65 0.29 -0.11 0.07
Unused land 0.1 -0.31 1.45 0.12 0.21 -1.13
Table 7 Water yield change of each sub-basin in the LRB from 1993 to 2022
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