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Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land  2021, Vol. 13 Issue (9): 905-917    DOI: 10.1007/s40333-021-0017-1
Research article     
Assessing the response of dryland barley yield to climate variability in semi-arid regions, Iran
Mohammad KHEIRI1, Jafar KAMBOUZIA1,*(), Reza DEIHIMFARD1, Saghi M MOGHADDAM2, Seyran ANVARI1
1Department of Agroecology, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran 1983963113, Iran
2Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague 16500, Czech Republic
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Abstract  

Precipitation and temperature are the most abiotic factors that greatly impact the yield of crop, particularly in dryland. Barley, as the main cereal is predominantly cultivated in dryland and the livelihood of smallholders depends on the production of this crop, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. This study aimed to investigate the response of the grain yield of dryland barley to temperature and precipitation variations at annual, seasonal and monthly scales in seven counties of East and West Azerbaijan provinces in northwestern Iran during 1991-2010. Humidity index (HI) was calculated and its relationship with dryland barley yield was evaluated at annual and monthly scales. The results showed that the minimum, maximum and mean temperatures increased by 0.19°C/a, 0.11°C/a and 0.10°C/a, respectively, while annual precipitation decreased by 0.80 mm/a during 1991-2010. Climate in study area has become drier by 0.22/a in annual HI during the study period. Negative effects of increasing temperature on the grain yield of dryland barley were more severe than the positive effects of increasing precipitation. Besides, weather variations in April and May were related more to the grain yield of dryland barley than those in other months. The grain yield of dryland barley was more drastically affected by the variation of annual minimum temperature comparing with other weather variables. Furthermore, our findings illustrated that the grain yield of dryland barley increased by 0.01 t/hm2 for each unit increase in annual HI during 1991-2010. Finally, any increase in the monthly HI led to crop yield improvement in the study area, particularly in the drier counties, i.e., Myaneh, Tabriz and Khoy in Iran.

Key words： humidity index      crop yield      spatiotemporal variation      temperature      precipitation     
Received: 24 March 2021      Published: 10 September 2021
Corresponding Authors: *Jafar KAMBOUZIA (E-mail: J_Kambouzia@sbu.ac.ir)
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Mohammad KHEIRI
Jafar KAMBOUZIA
Reza DEIHIMFARD
Saghi M MOGHADDAM
Seyran ANVARI
Cite this article:

Mohammad KHEIRI, Jafar KAMBOUZIA, Reza DEIHIMFARD, Saghi M MOGHADDAM, Seyran ANVARI. Assessing the response of dryland barley yield to climate variability in semi-arid regions, Iran. Journal of Arid Land, 2021, 13(9): 905-917.

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http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-021-0017-1     OR     http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2021/V13/I9/905

Fig. 1 Location of the seven counties in the East and West Azerbaijan provinces, Iran
Fig. 2 Time trends of raw (dashed line) and detrended (solid line) barley grain yield in the seven counties during 1991-2010
Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of barley grain yield (a), weather variables (b-e) and annual HI (f) in the seven counties during 1991-2010. Tmin, annual minimum temperature; Tmax, annual maximum temperature; Tmean, annual mean temperature; P, precipitation; HI, humidity index.
County Tmin (°C) Tmax (°C) Tmean (°C) Precipitation (mm) Annual HI Barley grain yield (t/hm2)
Ahar 0.03* 0.06** 0.04* 1.47 -0.17 0.01*
Tabriz 0.11* 0.14** 0.13** -0.35 -0.15* -0.01
Maragheh 0.16** 0.18** 0.17** -1.52 -0.20* 0.02
Myaneh 0.15** 0.20** 0.18** -5.48** -0.40* 0.01
Urmia 0.01 0.08* 0.04* 2.20 -0.42 0.03**
Khoy 0.86 0.06** 0.08* -0.07** -0.11 0.00
Makou 0.04* 0.06* 0.05* -1.86 -0.08 0.01
Table 1 Slope of regression coefficient of the climate variables, annual HI and barley grain yield during 1991-2010
County Tmin-yield Tmax-yield Tmean-yield Precipitation-yield
r P-value r P-value r P-value r P-value
Ahar -0.22 0.44 -0.21 0.45 -0.22 0.44 -0.22 0.42
Tabriz -0.43 0.11 -0.47 0.08 -0.46 0.09 0.11 0.70
Maragheh -0.26 0.36 -0.17 0.54 -0.21 0.46 -0.24 0.39
Myaneh -0.39 0.15 -0.49 0.06 -0.46 0.08 0.43 0.11
Urmia 0.39 0.15 -0.53 0.04 0.47 0.07 -0.29 0.29
Khoy -0.28 0.31 -0.31 0.26 -0.33 0.23 0.26 0.34
Makou -0.54 0.04 -0.54 0.04 -0.54 0.04 -0.15 0.60
Table 2 Analysis of correlations between weather variables and barley grain yield at annual scale during 1991-2010
County Season Tmin-yield Tmax-yield Tmean-yield Precipitation-yield
r P-value r P-value r P-value r P-value
Ahar Winter -0.15 0.59 -0.13 0.66 -0.14 0.63 0.09 0.74
Spring -0.33 0.23 -0.31 0.26 -0.33 0.23 0.17 0.55
Summer -0.14 0.61 -0.01 0.98 -0.06 0.83 -0.37 0.17
Fall -0.02 0.93 -0.11 0.69 -0.08 0.78 0.09 0.76
Tabriz Winter -0.26 0.34 -0.33 0.23 -0.30 0.27 -0.01 0.98
Spring -0.48 0.07 -0.45 0.09 -0.47 0.08 0.15 0.65
Summer -0.25 0.37 -0.04 0.90 -0.14 0.61 0.40 0.14
Fall -0.27 0.34 -0.38 0.16 -0.35 0.20 0.17 0.51
Maragheh Winter 0.05 0.86 0.01 0.98 0.03 0.93 -0.07 0.81
Spring -0.40 0.14 -0.21 0.46 -0.29 0.30 0.13 0.65
Summer 0.09 0.76 0.32 0.25 0.21 0.21 0.34 0.22
Fall -0.58 0.03 -0.50 0.06 -0.54 0.04 0.36 0.19
Myaneh Winter -0.62 0.01 -0.63 0.01 -0.63 0.01 0.16 0.58
Spring -0.72 0.00 -0.59 0.02 -0.65 0.01 0.52 0.04
Summer -0.03 0.93 -0.22 0.43 -0.14 0.62 -0.48 0.07
Fall -0.44 0.10 -0.25 0.37 -0.36 0.19 0.47 0.08
Urmia Winter -0.02 0.93 0.24 0.38 0.22 0.44 -0.23 0.41
Spring -0.25 0.37 -0.22 0.42 -0.23 0.40 0.46 0.08
Summer 0.15 0.59 0.48 0.07 0.39 0.15 -0.32 0.25
Fall -0.36 0.19 -0.48 0.07 -0.48 0.07 -0.10 0.73
Khoy Winter -0.20 0.48 -0.10 0.73 -0.15 0.60 0.35 0.21
Spring -0.18 0.53 -0.53 0.04 -0.35 0.20 -0.16 0.57
Summer -0.09 0.74 0.21 0.45 0.07 0.81 -0.20 0.49
Fall -0.45 0.09 -0.49 0.07 -0.50 0.06 0.50 0.06
Makou Winter -0.39 0.16 -0.29 0.29 -0.35 0.21 0.30 0.28
Spring -0.44 0.10 -0.29 0.30 -0.36 0.19 0.19 0.18
Summer -0.02 0.95 0.03 0.91 0.02 0.96 -0.30 0.29
Fall -0.30 0.28 -0.30 0.22 -0.30 0.27 0.23 0.42
Table 3 Analysis of correlations between weather variables and barley grain yield at seasonal scale during 1991-2010
County Variable Month
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Oct Nov Dec
Ahar Tmin -0.34 0.00 -0.01 -0.09 -0.55* -0.12 -0.09 0.33 0.10 -0.28
Tmax -0.27 -0.05 -0.05 -0.16 -0.52* -0.02 0.18 0.18 0.10 -0.40
Tmean -0.31 -0.03 -0.03 -0.14 -0.58* -0.05 0.11 0.26 0.10 -0.35
P -0.25 0.03 0.22 -0.20 0.00 -0.14 -0.16 -0.13 0.00 0.35
Tabriz Tmin -0.49 -0.09 -0.09 -0.13 -0.60** -0.47 -0.07 0.03 -0.07 -0.29
Tmax -0.46 -0.23 -0.22 -0.25 -0.49 -0.37 0.16 -0.02 -0.09 -0.48
Tmean -0.49 -0.17 -0.17 -0.20 -0.54* -0.42 0.05 0.00 -0.09 -0.40
P -0.19 0.05 0.10 0.13 -0.00 0.20 -0.01 -0.29 0.05 0.60**
Maragheh Tmin -0.12 0.10 0.14 -0.21 -0.31 -0.46 0.29 -0.38 -0.05 -0.43
Tmax -0.14 -0.03 0.14 -0.31 -0.14 -0.08 0.39 -0.36 0.08 -0.44
Tmean -0.13 0.03 0.14 -0.27 -0.21 -0.25 0.35 -0.37 0.04 -0.43
P 0.04 0.30 -0.42 0.30 0.01 -0.22 -0.38 0.23 -0.44 0.22
Myaneh Tmin -0.16 0.14 0.05 -0.54* -0.57* -0.61** -0.03 -0.07 0.01 -0.58
Tmax -0.30 -0.16 -0.13 -0.56* -0.50 -0.39 -0.06 -0.11 -0.05 -0.48
Tmean -0.23 -0.04 -0.07 -0.59* -0.54* -0.50 -0.05 -0.10 -0.03 -0.57*
P -0.09 0.16 0.21 0.55* 0.11 -0.05 -0.23 0.35 0.28 0.29
Urmia Tmin -0.08 0.26 0.33 0.23 0.04 0.36 0.42 0.44 -0.03 -0.07
Tmax -0.01 0.24 0.35 -0.03 0.10 0.43 0.46 0.36 0.12 -0.13
Tmean -0.05 0.25 0.35 0.02 0.09 0.41 0.49 0.44 0.08 -0.11
P -0.30 -0.07 -0.09 -0.35 -0.18 -0.43 -0.42 0.01 -0.30 0.29
Khoy Tmin -0.49 0.03 0.08 -0.15 -0.10 -0.29 -0.12 0.06 -0.39 -0.32
Tmax -0.41 0.05 0.10 -0.40 -0.38 -0.16 0.26 -0.04 -0.29 -0.48
Tmean -0.47 0.04 0.10 -0.31 -0.18 -0.22 0.10 0.01 -0.35 -0.42
P -0.14 0.30 0.28 0.14 -0.18 -0.30 -0.12 0.39 0.30 0.44
Makou Tmin -0.54* -0.24 -0.21 -0.09 -0.76** -0.27 0.14 -0.14 -0.36 -0.13
Tmax -0.51 -0.17 -0.10 -0.11 -0.44 -0.08 0.19 -0.12 -0.18 -0.28
Tmean -0.53* -0.21 -0.15 -0.10 -0.58* -0.16 0.17 -0.11 -0.18 -0.20
P 0.50 0.19 0.01 -0.10 -0.47 -0.18 -0.38 -0.23 0.08 -0.20
Table 4 Analysis of correlations between weather variables and barley grain yield at monthly scale during 1991-2010
Month County
Ahar Tabriz Maragheh Myaneh Urmia Khoy Makou
Jan -0.01 -0.04 0.10 -0.04 -0.24 0.21 0.53*
Feb -0.04 -0.02 0.25 0.02 -0.18 0.23 0.19
Mar 0.26 0.11 -0.39 0.23 -0.20 0.26 0.03
Apr -0.14 0.16 0.32 0.53* -0.28 0.21 -0.06
May 0.44 0.45 0.56* 0.68** -0.11 -0.11 -0.36
Jun -0.12 0.21 -0.22 -0.03 -0.42 -0.28 -0.15
Jul -0.13 -0.02 -0.38 -0.23 0.40 -0.12 -0.38
Oct -0.14 -0.28 0.41 0.37 -0.01 0.38 -0.23
Nov -0.03 0.06 -0.45 0.29 -0.31 0.30 0.10
Dec 0.53* 0.66** 0.24 0.31 0.26 0.64** 0.29
Table 5 Analysis of correlations between HI and barley grain yield at monthly scale during 1991-2010
Fig. 4 Scattered plot of association between barley grain yield and annual HI (humidity index) in the seven counties during 1991-2010. * indicates significance at P<0.05 level.
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