Potential distribution of Haloxylon ammodendron in Central Asia under climate change
CHEN Zhuo1,2, SHAO Minghao2,3, HU Zihao4, GAO Xin1,2,*(), LEI Jiaqiang1,2
1Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China 2University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China 3National Engineering Technology Research Center for Desert-Oasis Ecological Construction, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China 4University of Emergency Management, Beijing 101601, China
Understanding the spatial distribution of plant species and their dynamic changes in arid areas is crucial for addressing the challenges posed by climate change. Haloxylon ammodendron shelterbelts are essential for the protection of plant resources and the control of desertification in Central Asia. Thus far, the potential suitable habitats of H. ammodendron in Central Asia are still uncertain in the future under global climate change conditions. This study utilised the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to combine the current distribution data of H. ammodendron with its growth-related data to analyze the potential distribution pattern of H. ammodendron across Central Asia. The results show that there are suitable habitats of H. ammodendron in the Aralkum Desert, northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, and the upstream of the Tarim River and western edge of the Taklimakan Desert in the Tarim Basin under the current climate conditions. The period from 2021 to 2040 is projected to undergo significant changes in the suitable habitat area of H. ammodendron in Central Asia, with a projected 15.0% decrease in the unsuitable habitat area. Inland areas farther from the ocean, such as the Caspian Sea and Aralkum Desert, will continue to experience a decrease in the suitable habitats of H. ammodendron. Regions exhibiting frequent fluctuations in the habitat suitability levels are primarily found along the axis stretching from Astana to Kazakhskiy Melkosopochnik in Kazakhstan. These regions can transition into suitable habitats under varying climate conditions, requiring the implementation of appropriate human intervention measures to prevent desertification. Future climate conditions are expected to cause an eastward shift in the geometric centre of the potential suitable habitats of H. ammodendron, with the extent of this shift amplifying alongside more greenhouse gas emissions. This study can provide theoretical support for the spatial configuration of H. ammodendron shelterbelts and desertification control in Central Asia, emphasising the importance of proactive measures to adapt to climate change in the future.
CHEN Zhuo, SHAO Minghao, HU Zihao, GAO Xin, LEI Jiaqiang. Potential distribution of Haloxylon ammodendron in Central Asia under climate change. Journal of Arid Land, 2024, 16(9): 1255-1269.
Fig. 1Overview of the study area based on the digital elevation model (DEM) and spatial distribution points of Haloxylon ammodendron obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Fund (GBIF; http://www.gbif.org) and field observations. Note that the figure is based on the standard map (GS(2016)1665) from the Standard Map Service System (http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/index.html) marked by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, and the standard map has not been modified.
Predictor variable
Abbreviation
Classification of action
Annual mean temperature
BIO1
PC1
Mean diurnal range
BIO2
PC4, -PC5, PC6*, and -PC7
Isothermality
BIO3
-PC2, PC4, PC6, and -PC7
Temperature seasonality
BIO4
PC2, PC3, and PC8
Max temperature of warmest month
BIO5
PC1 and PC2
Min temperature of coldest month
BIO6
-PC3
Temperature annual range
BIO7
PC3, PC6, and PC8
Mean temperature of wettest quarter
BIO8
PC4* and -PC6
Mean temperature of driest quarter
BIO9
-PC3 and -PC4
Mean temperature of warmest quarter
BIO10
PC1 and PC2
Mean temperature of coldest quarter
BIO11
PC1 and -PC3
Annual precipitation
BIO12
-PC1
Precipitation of wettest month
BIO13
PC4 and PC8
Precipitation of driest month
BIO14
-PC5 and -PC8*
Precipitation seasonality
BIO15
-PC2 and PC8
Precipitation of wettest quarter
BIO16
PC4
Precipitation of driest quarter
BIO17
-PC5, PC6, and -PC8
Precipitation of warmest quarter
BIO18
-PC1* and PC7
Precipitation of coldest quarter
BIO19
-PC3* and PC6
Population distribution
PD
-PC2*
Elevation
Elev
PC5* and PC7*
Topsoil sand content
TSC
-PC5 and PC7
Topsoil water content
TWC
PC5 and -PC7
Table 1 Predictor variables and their abbreviations and classifications after downscaling
Fig. 2Potential distribution pattern of H. ammodendron under current climate conditions based on the habitat classes. Highly suitable habitats: habitat class>0.60; medium suitable habitats: 0.30<habitat class≤0.60; low suitable habitats: 0.15<habitat class≤0.30; unsuitable habitats: habitat classes≤0.15. Note that the figure is based on the standard map (GS(2016)1665) from the Standard Map Service System (http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/ index.html) marked by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, and the standard map has not been modified.
Fig. 3Potential suitable habitats of H. ammodendron under future climate change scenarios: SSP126 (a1-a3), SSP245 (b1-b3), SSP370 (c1-c3), and SSP585 (d1-d3) during 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2080. SSP, shared socioeconomic pathway. Note that the Caspian Sea is not involved in this analysis; the figures are based on the standard map (GS(2016)1665) from the Standard Map Service System (http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/index.html) marked by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, and the standard map has not been modified.
Fig. 4Transfer of the suitable habitats of H. ammodendron with different habitat classes during 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2080
Fig. 5Spatial distribution of changes in the suitable habitats of H. ammodendron from the current to future climate conditions. Note that the Caspian Sea is not involved in this analysis; the figure is based on the standard map (GS(2016)1665) from the Standard Map Service System (http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/index.html) marked by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, and the standard map has not been modified.
Fig. 6Transformation of the geometric centre of the potential suitable habitats of H. ammodendron from the current to future climate conditions under the SSP126 (a), SSP245 (b), SSP370 (c), and SSP585 (d) scenarios. The true colour image of the base map was obtained from the Google Maps.
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