Potential distribution of <i>Haloxylon ammodendron</i> in Central Asia under climate change

doi:10.1007/s40333-024-0061-8

Journal of Arid Land

2024, Vol. 16

Issue (9): 1255-1269 DOI: 10.1007/s40333-024-0061-8 CSTR: 32276.14.s40333-024-0061-8

CSTR: 32276.14.JAL.02400618

Research article

Potential distribution of Haloxylon ammodendron in Central Asia under climate change

CHEN Zhuo¹^,², SHAO Minghao²^,³, HU Zihao⁴, GAO Xin¹^,²^,^*(

), LEI Jiaqiang¹^,²

¹Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
²University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
³National Engineering Technology Research Center for Desert-Oasis Ecological Construction, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
⁴University of Emergency Management, Beijing 101601, China

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Abstract

Understanding the spatial distribution of plant species and their dynamic changes in arid areas is crucial for addressing the challenges posed by climate change. Haloxylon ammodendron shelterbelts are essential for the protection of plant resources and the control of desertification in Central Asia. Thus far, the potential suitable habitats of H. ammodendron in Central Asia are still uncertain in the future under global climate change conditions. This study utilised the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to combine the current distribution data of H. ammodendron with its growth-related data to analyze the potential distribution pattern of H. ammodendron across Central Asia. The results show that there are suitable habitats of H. ammodendron in the Aralkum Desert, northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, and the upstream of the Tarim River and western edge of the Taklimakan Desert in the Tarim Basin under the current climate conditions. The period from 2021 to 2040 is projected to undergo significant changes in the suitable habitat area of H. ammodendron in Central Asia, with a projected 15.0% decrease in the unsuitable habitat area. Inland areas farther from the ocean, such as the Caspian Sea and Aralkum Desert, will continue to experience a decrease in the suitable habitats of H. ammodendron. Regions exhibiting frequent fluctuations in the habitat suitability levels are primarily found along the axis stretching from Astana to Kazakhskiy Melkosopochnik in Kazakhstan. These regions can transition into suitable habitats under varying climate conditions, requiring the implementation of appropriate human intervention measures to prevent desertification. Future climate conditions are expected to cause an eastward shift in the geometric centre of the potential suitable habitats of H. ammodendron, with the extent of this shift amplifying alongside more greenhouse gas emissions. This study can provide theoretical support for the spatial configuration of H. ammodendron shelterbelts and desertification control in Central Asia, emphasising the importance of proactive measures to adapt to climate change in the future.

Key words： Haloxylon ammodendron potential suitable habitats climate change desertification maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model Central Asia Aralkum Desert

Received: 01 April 2024 Published: 30 September 2024

CLC:

32276.14.JAL.02400618

Corresponding Authors: ^*GAO Xin (E-mail: gaoxin@ms.xjb.ac.cn)

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	CHEN Zhuo
	SHAO Minghao
	HU Zihao
	GAO Xin
	LEI Jiaqiang

Cite this article:

CHEN Zhuo, SHAO Minghao, HU Zihao, GAO Xin, LEI Jiaqiang. Potential distribution of Haloxylon ammodendron in Central Asia under climate change. Journal of Arid Land, 2024, 16(9): 1255-1269.

URL:

http://jal.xjegi.com/10.1007/s40333-024-0061-8 OR http://jal.xjegi.com/Y2024/V16/I9/1255

Fig. 1 Overview of the study area based on the digital elevation model (DEM) and spatial distribution points of Haloxylon ammodendron obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Fund (GBIF; http://www.gbif.org) and field observations. Note that the figure is based on the standard map (GS(2016)1665) from the Standard Map Service System (http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/index.html) marked by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, and the standard map has not been modified.

Table 1 Predictor variables and their abbreviations and classifications after downscaling

Fig. 2 Potential distribution pattern of H. ammodendron under current climate conditions based on the habitat classes. Highly suitable habitats: habitat class>0.60; medium suitable habitats: 0.30<habitat class≤0.60; low suitable habitats: 0.15<habitat class≤0.30; unsuitable habitats: habitat classes≤0.15. Note that the figure is based on the standard map (GS(2016)1665) from the Standard Map Service System (http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/ index.html) marked by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, and the standard map has not been modified.

Fig. 3 Potential suitable habitats of H. ammodendron under future climate change scenarios: SSP126 (a1-a3), SSP245 (b1-b3), SSP370 (c1-c3), and SSP585 (d1-d3) during 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2080. SSP, shared socioeconomic pathway. Note that the Caspian Sea is not involved in this analysis; the figures are based on the standard map (GS(2016)1665) from the Standard Map Service System (http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/index.html) marked by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, and the standard map has not been modified.

Fig. 4 Transfer of the suitable habitats of H. ammodendron with different habitat classes during 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2080

Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of changes in the suitable habitats of H. ammodendron from the current to future climate conditions. Note that the Caspian Sea is not involved in this analysis; the figure is based on the standard map (GS(2016)1665) from the Standard Map Service System (http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/index.html) marked by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, and the standard map has not been modified.

Fig. 6 Transformation of the geometric centre of the potential suitable habitats of H. ammodendron from the current to future climate conditions under the SSP126 (a), SSP245 (b), SSP370 (c), and SSP585 (d) scenarios. The true colour image of the base map was obtained from the Google Maps.


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